Author: Dave Long

The endless NBA season has finally ended with the Lakers winning their (ugh) record-tying 17th title in six games over the Celtics-conquering Miami Heat. While seeing the Lakers tie the Celtics for most titles is daunting, especially since LeBron James and Anthony Davis can do it again next year, part of me was OK with that because if Miami had won there would’ve been no end to the local yakking over the Celtics’ “blowing” their opportunity.

But with the Lakers in control throughout, the same would have happened to Boston. Doesn’t mean they didn’t fumble away games vs. Miami; it just means that they’re not quite there, because their stars are young and they didn’t have enough pieces to get over the final hurdle. We’ll get to that in a bit, but for now here are some final thoughts as the post-season ended.

Said before the playoffs Duncan Robinson had to prove it to me that he was actually as good as he looked at times during the regular season. Well, I’m buying it now on the New Castle native. So is ABC’s Jeff Van Gundy, who called him “the most improved player in the bubble.” Hopefully there’s much more to come.

NBA 101: Who played the most NBA regular games without ever playing even once in the playoffs?

Markieff Morris has the same chippy attitude and play-alike game as brother Marcus had in Boston. Makes sense since they’re identical twins. But while they’re solid players, I slot them just behind Dick and Tom Van Arsdale as the NBA’s best set of identicals. The Lopez brothers are third, followed by Jason and Jarron Collins. And if you want to see something Twilight Zone eerie, go to basketball-reference.com and compare the Van Arsdale brothers’ career stats.

I wouldn’t call Russell Westbrook one of my favorites, but thumbs up for leaving the folks who took care of his hotel room in the bubble an $8,000 tip as thanks for their help. It’s also not the first time he’s done something like that. Nice Russell.

Scrawny Lakers bench guy Alex Caruso is a living version of the major Hollywood motion picture from days gone White Men Can’t Jump. That title describes the exact way every basketball person thinks until a white guy proves otherwise. So with his scrawny frame, goofy headband and non-tan (how does that happen while living in L.A. and Florida?) he’d be the last guy picked in any park in America. He’d then stun all with his spunky game, because he’s a lot better than anyone would think, including me.

Back to Markieff Morris. His 88 is the worst number in NBA history. George Mikan wore 99, but he’s an all-time great and was given it at DePaul to signify his gargantuan size for those days. I get 88 is a play on Marcus wearing 8, but ditch it, bro.

Interesting comments from Charles Barkley on the Dan Patrick radio show the other day where he said Kevin Durant was a “bus rider” in Golden State and not the “bus driver,” which was Steph Curry. Throw in Kyrie Irving kicking off Steve Nash’s tenure as Brooklyn coach by idiotically saying it’ll be a “collaboration” because he and Durant don’t need a coach and it’s more ammo for why the Durant-Irving thing will never live up to expectations. Can’t wait to see how it goes when the NY papers lay it on the thin-skinned Durant and team-killing Kyrie.

Jimmy Butler turned out to be a lot better than I ever gave him credit for. My bad. I really like his mental and physical toughness. Philly should have paid him and traded Ben Simmons.

This just in: that Anthony Davis guy is really good.

NBA 101 Answer: While brother Dick played 34 playoff games for the Knicks and Suns, including the famed triple-overtime Game 5 thriller vs. the Celtics in the 1976 Finals, Tom Van Arsdale played in 929 games with five teams in Cincinnati, Detroit, Atlanta, Philly and Phoenix over 12 seasons and never made the playoffs even once.

I’ll save you the trip to basketball-reference. After starting together at the University of Indiana the Van Arsdales both played 12 years in the NBA and here are the stats, Dick first, then Tom. Games: 921 – 929. FG percent: 47.9 – 43.1. Reb: 3,807 – 3,932. Assists: 3,057 – 2,992. Points: 15,079 – 14,232. Do-doo-do-doo, do-doo-do-doo….

I guess any time you get close it’s an opportunity. But for those who think the Celtics blew one, compare them to the 2008 team. Are they remotely as good? The Big 3 comparison would be Paul Pierce and Jayson Tatum as the get your own shot scorer, Ray Allen and Kemba Walker catch and shoot three in the corner guy (at least Kemba should do that) and the third scoring option, Kevin Garnett vs. Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown. While Tatum someday might match Pierce, for now he’s 22. Kemba will never be the Top 5 all-time shooter Ray was, and Garnett scored over 25,000 career points, though his real value was his unmatchable leadership and killer defense skills. In other words the 2008 bunch was a deeply experienced team with a Big 3 all 30+, as each won their first title. Said another way, they’re not ready.

The biggest problem was consistency and grit at the end of games. So, even though Bam was a load, they need two things far more than an upgrade over Daniel Theis: a mentally tough, experienced leader in the vein of Butler, and a real point guard who controls the O in big moments to give scorers the ball when they can do something Rajon with it.

And finally since we all know I like saying I told you so, as I said when he signed with L.A., in recording the most playoff assists off the bench in NBA history Rajon Rondo was big in the playoffs.

Bring him back, Danny, ’cause what he does is just what they need.

Not that it hasn’t been the biggest worldwide story for seven months, but the coronavirus reared its head in a big way again last week with the announcement that the president and first lady had tested positive, followed a day later by news that Patriots QB Cam Newton had become the biggest sports name infected with the virus, throwing a major curveball at the Patriots in the year after Brady.

The latter forced the NFL to push back the Patriots’ meeting with KC to a few hours after I’m writing this on Monday, after previously postponing Sunday’s game between Tennessee and Pittsburgh due to positive tests among several folks in the Titans organization. That gave the NFL its first dose of what MLB faced playing outside a bubble, when those playing inside one had virtually no issues — both the NBA and NHL playoffs progressed to a conclusion. So with all local teams from the last three leagues now done, let’s catch up on some of strange or otherwise occurrences the global plague has wrought on sports.

The Best And Silliest Dust-Up – L.A. vs. Houston: If I were Joe Kelly’s defense attorney in his suspension hearing for buzzing one over Alex Bregman’s head, I’d point out the control-challenged hurler once by missed the target he was aiming for against his house to throw a pitch through the window of his own bedroom. So how can anyone be sure he was trying to instigate something with the Astros? Especially when he was with Boston, not L.A., when they got cheated out of a World Series win. But if I were the DA, I’d say, being the knucklehead locals know old Joe to be, he likely misremembered he was a Dodger in 2017 and the pitch just got away when he was actually trying to drill Bregman in the ribs.

Biggest Knucklehead – Lou Williams: Said he was going home on emergency leave from the NBA bubble only to show up in a social media post at a well-known Atlanta strip club. Won in a tight race with Indians hurlers Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger, who first lied about breaking protocol and then put the entire team at risk the next day in meetings before being caught in their lie. It got Clevinger bounced to San Diego, er, L.A., er no, it actually was SD and Plesac dropped off the roster as punishment.

Grinding On Award – tie, Marlins and Cards: While the expanded playoff format made it easier to get it, you’ve got to give the two teams that got hit by far with the most positive tests among players credit for grinding to make the postseason. The Cards at one point had played just five games when most others had played 20. That they survived 15 pitching-taxing doubleheaders is amazing.

Worst Loss – Orioles to Marlins: In Miami’s first game back after missing a week due to a slew of positive tests through the organization, the O’s still somehow managed to lose 4-0 despite the M’s having 17 new players after the same number went onto the DL/quarantine list.

Old Belief Reaffirmed – Home Court Helps: As good a job as the NBA did with the bubble plan, the loss of home court advantage was a series-altering factor in the playoffs. Most obvious was how the rhythm of a series changes from top seeds starting with two at home, then going on the road for two. That generally helps build drama as it goes along, which was missing with the game after game neutral site bubble-created format. Not a criticism, because it wasn’t anyone’s fault, but since it is one of the best things about the playoffs, it was definitely missed.

Biggest Unnoticed Historical Developments – Lakers Two Games Away: A major source of pride among Celtics fans has always been they’ve won more NBA titles than any other franchise. Well, the Lakers are likely to match their 17 titles, maybe by Friday. And by having 33 Finals appearances to Boston’s 20, it wrests the title of greatest NBA franchise away as well. It’s a product of winning just once since the end of the Bird era. Which for the mathematically challenged is, gulp, 34 years since his last title as L.A. won seven more times.

Newest Rule Likely to Stay – Extra Innings: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but I liked putting a guy to start each inning from the 10th on, and not just because it prevented endless games. It changed strategy by forcing managers to be aggressive rather than trying to outlast the other guy. So the real lesson for action-challenged baseball is to come up with more stuff like that.

Biggest Local Disappointment – Bruins: With the best record in the league at the shutdown they seemed poised to go to the Finals again and maybe win this time. But nope, they were out before the Celtics thanks in part to being deserted a couple of games in by their goaltender.

Least Disappointing Local Team – Red Sox: It was their worst team since 1963, but after Mookie Betts and David Price got traded, and Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez lost to Tommy John and a scary Covid-related heart issue, did anyone have any expectations for what they might do beyond how bad they were going to be? Beyond J.D. Martinez hitting .213 how can anyone say no?

Non-Corona Victim of Last Week – San Diego, er, L.A. Chargers: That would be for getting run over by the five TD passing day by you know who on Sunday in his first great game since 2018.

With an awful lot going on, we’re following as many of the week’s top stories as we can today.

News Item: Boston Globe Preview Asks the Wrong Question

In their annual football preview the Boston Globe asked who would have the better year, Tom Brady or Cam Newton. A more relevant question is will Cam be better in 2020 than Tom was in 2019? What Brady does in Tampa is not apples and apples because he has better skilled players and a different air-it-out system that’s likely to skew numbers higher. But who cares what Brady does elsewhere? What the Patriots need is improved play at the quarterback over 2019, especially in the second part of the year. At the end of the day that is all that matters.

News Item: Mookie Betts is Going to Hurt for Five Years

Maybe it’s better that baseball only played 60 games, because then you don’t have to see what Mookie Betts’ first season away from Boston really was. His numbers over 60 games were 46 runs, 16 homers, 39 RBI with a .292 average. Projected over a full season they’re a more gruesome 126 – 43 – 105. On the bright side, in his first season away from the Green Monster his nine doubles would be just 24. Mookie’s numbers are gonna give Red Sox Nation heartburn for probably the next five to eight years. The issue to focus on is what they do with the $70 million they rid themselves of by attaching David Price’s contract to letting L.A. get Mookie. As well as how the three players they got for him — Connor Wong, Jeter Downs and Alex Verdugo — come along, which is off to a good start with Verdugo hitting .308 in year one.

News Item: Natives Are Restless Over Celts Getting Scorched by Heat

The folks on talk radio call their season a “failure” because they lost to lower seed Miami. But they didn’t bounce Milwaukee in five because they were lucky. It was because they’re good and tough. So, while there were disappointing parts to their elimination, I’m going with it being a learning experience. First to show the brass what roster adjustments are needed to make them better going forward. Larry Bird won his first title at 24; Michael Jordan and LeBron James were 27. Five-time champs Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant each won for the first time at 22, but they were second bananas to 28-year-old Shaquille O’Neal and 34-year-old David Robinson as they won their first title on teams with several veterans like Jordan running mates Steve Kerr, Will Perdue, Horace Grant and Ron Harper, along with Big Shot Bob Horry. The point is winning a title generally comes after learning through experience. Pointing out that team leaders Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who both had their moments and disappearances vs. Miami, are just 22 and 23. Some say, that’s an excuse. But 70 years of history shows experience plays a vital role in eventually winning.

News Item: Let the Cora Speculation Begin

With Ron Roenicke’s term as fill-in, interim Red Sox manager ended, speculation has begun for who their next boss will be. While Chaim Bloom likely wants his own stat geek type guy, bringing back Alex Cora is a no-brainer choice for us. True the Astros’ cheating scandal was a black mark, but when the World Series is over he will have paid his debt to baseball. Drug offenders returned to their teams all the time, ditto for serial cheater Alex Rodriguez, and MLB almost let that dreg buy the Mets. So why not Cora in Boston? He was a perfect fit during his two seasons that included getting on fine with the media and his players, being a bilingual communicator in a bilingual game, an adept strategist and a World Series winner, when his unique strategy/game management de-pants Dave Roberts. In a year where little has made sense, the Sox should exercise the sense to end it by bringing Cora back.

News Item: The Great Gale Sayers Passes

I’m having a tough time comprehending that my favorite player ever was 77, let alone he just died in a clouded state of dementia. I’ve said many times before, but will again at his passing, that Gale Sayers was the most electrifying athlete I’ve ever seen. Because you knew he could go for a TD every time he touched the ball from anywhere on the field, and likely in spectacular fashion. Only Barry Sanders had the same ability to change direction by stopping on a dime while running full tilt to make people miss, then restart to run away from everyone thanks to astonishing zero-to-60 acceleration. But Sanders did it on artificial turf, while Sayers played only on grass and/or muddy fields. Like the rainy December day he scored a record-tying six TD’s vs. SF at Wrigley Field. That was part of the greatest rookie season ever when he scored a record 22 TD’s in the 14-game season of 1965 on 14 rushes, six receptions, a punt and a kick-off. He also buried my Giants with a perfect option pass in a game when he scored four other TD’s. Sadly, injuries limited him to just 68 games, which made him a Kansas Comet shooting across the sky and gone too soon. And then there’s the Brian Piccolo story. A friendship blossoming from rookie roommates to becoming best friends as the black Sayers competed with a white guy from North Carolina for the same job during a time of great civil rights strife. Brian’s Song, which depicts the events leading to Pic’s death of cancer at 26, is the only movie besides (gulp) Old Yeller I cried over as a kid. And I’m as sad at the passing of his life (and my youth) as I was when Billy D. Williams’ Sayers says at the end, “I love Brian Piccolo.”

RIP, Mr. Sayers. Thanks for the thrills and great memories

It’s an interesting start to NFL 2020, offering a few surprises, some predictability and a battle for player of the year off to a rousing start. Injuries have also started to rear their head as they always do, which makes team and individual predictions difficult because you never know who eventually will get hurt and when — just that someone will. What we do know is that usually the teams that get into the playoff mix are the ones who are best able to avoid a huge string of them. Especially to key guys, which KC managed to do on their way to their SB win with the dislocated knee that cost Pat Mahomes just a few weeks instead of the season-ending number it appeared to be when it happened.

So with that in mind, here’s a slightly tardy collection of observations, questions and predictions for 2020.

Can KC Do It Again? Yes. I don’t know if you’ve heard that Mahomes guy is pretty good and it appears he’s not of those guys who takes a breather after doing something really good like many others do. If you have any questions about that, see the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles.

Toughest Division – NFC West: With clear favorites in most divisions or a couple of dregs at the bottom of others there aren’t a lot of choices. So with San Francisco motivated by their SB loss, Russell Wilson in Seattle, the Rams looking to be rebounding and the up-coming Cards led by the Murray-to-newly-acquired-DeAndre Hopkins passing combo it’s best.

Weakest Division – NFC East: If the Cowboys can’t win a division that includes a bad team that’s already lost its best player, one who predictably did what the Patriots never did, melt away after one crummy year of success and another that doesn’t even have a nickname, then my super Cowboys fan friend George Copadis should rip up his autographed picture of Lee Roy Jordan and Don Meredith. And just wondering if stay-in-your-Lane Johnson is still having fun playing in Philly during its slide to the bottom.

Year of the Quarterback – Everyone: In college football it was 1970 when QB’s went 1-2-3 in the draft, later topped by 1983 when famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino were among five QB’s taken. But with young’ns Mahomes, Wilson and Lamar Jackson at the top of their game, Deshaun Watson not far behind, Murray emerging, Aaron Rodgers throwing for over 600 yards with six TD passes as the Packers scored 43 and 42 points in two wins, and Cam Newton looking like he’s healthy (for now), along with Tom Brady and Drew Brees not giving in yet, 2020 might get named that for the NFL.

Player of the Year: A lot to choose from — Mahomes, Wilson, Jackson, Derrick Henry and maybe Aaron Donald on D. But I’m going with Murray, who gets the benefit of the doubt for being the newcomer in the mix as Jackson did last year.

Good Teammate of the Week Award – Cam Newton: I liked how he stood up for N’Keal Harry amid incessant media yacking after that Week 1 fumble through the end zone. Don’t remember anything in recent memory like that from the last QB. Just the sour look when young receivers didn’t do what he wanted. But he justified Newton’s confidence with eight catches, including holding after getting drilled twice vs. Seattle.

Random Teammate Question of the Week: If Harry’s progress continues, does it point a finger at Brady’s diva-like behavior over necessary growing pains, a simple Year 2 step up?

Coaches on the Hot Seat – Adam Gase: With the Jets off to an 0-2 start he’s the most obvious, but with Matt Patricia 0-2 in Detroit it’s a neck-and-neck race.

GM’s on the Hot Seat – Dave Gettleman: After starting 0-2 with San Francisco, a trip out west to face the Rams in the next two games and Saquon Barkley expected gone for the year as I write this, it seems the G-Men’s GM has the pole position. And if he does, will that mean the G-Men will broom a new coach for the third time in four years to let the new guy pick his own guy?

2018 NFL Draft Award – Giants and Jets: If Barkley is gone for the year after his injury-plagued 2019 it could revive heavy criticism from the NY media for selecting a running back who gets pounded over a QB with the end nearing for Eli Manning. Except the second-guessing is going to be harder this time since they were all in on Sam Darnold, who, after two less than stellar efforts to start his third season and more are-you-kidding moments than those of real promise in first two years, has the arrow starting to point toward him joining the line of highly touted USC quarterbacks to have busted this century, which includes Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley.

I Told You So Award – Josh Allen: OK, it’s only Week 2 and it came against the Jets and Dolphins, so I’ll pump my brakes on this till mid-season, but after leading once offensively challenged Buffalo to 27 and 31 points and throwing for a career best 417 yards with four TD’s and no picks Sunday, my “he’s better than most think” belief is off to a good start.

All-Name Team MVP – Senorise Perry: If you’ve never heard of him, neither have I. But he’s the Titans’ 29 back-up runner to Henry who’s on his fourth team in five years, not including being out of football totally in 2015 and ’16.

Saddest and Worst News of the Week – James White: Condolences and prayers for the awful news of his father’s death and mom’s catastrophic injuries in their Miami car crash on Sunday.

In a normal year we preview big leaguewide NFL stories as the season starts moving into high gear in Week 2 September. But, since this year isn’t normal, we’ll push to next week, mentioning that Cam Newton had more rushing yards in his first Patriots game on Sunday than Tom Brady had in any entire season during 20 years in New England. Instead, with the NBA playoffs going on in September for the first time ever, we’re focused on the Eastern Conference Final matchup between the Celtics and the Miami Heat that got underway on Tuesday night.

How’s Boston Doing Without Kyrie?

Well, with much of the basketball media, including the clueless crew in New York, somehow still calling him a “superstar” after he did the same thing to the Nets he did to the Celtics, they’re going to the Eastern Conference Final for the third time in four years. The only time they didn’t go? The year Kyrie played and choked his way through Round II by shooting 30 percent as they got croaked in five by Milwaukee. As I said when he left for Brooklyn, addition by subtraction, and that’s clearly the case.

Udonis Haslem Effect: Miami must really like his effect in the locker room because the 40-year-old one-time starter hasn’t played as many as 30 games since 2015-16 and he’s still on the team. He’s also the last playing link to Matt Bonner; they were teammates when Florida went to the NCAA Finals in 2000.

Five Quick Thoughts on Miami:(1) They play great team D. (2) Bam Adebayo is a lot better than most people realize. He shot 52 percent, grabs 10 boards a game and is a solid defender. (3) Ditto for tragic Goran Dragic, a versatile and physical offensive player who averaged 19.8 vs. the Bucks. (4) They’re good and very consistent shooting threes. (5) Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach and not in the whiney, what a tool, way Rob (good night) Nurse is.

New Hampshire Connection: The three-point bomber from New Castle, Duncan Robinson, is trying to become just the second New Hampshire native to win an NBA title. At the moment he’s seven or eight wins away from joining Bonner, who won two with San Antonio. But if the Celtics don’t take away his and Tyler Herro’s long-range shooting room, he’ll just be four shy come Sept. 30.

How’d They’d Get There? – Heat: They’re 8-1 in the playoffs and easily took out Milwaukee in five games. They did it by building a defensive wall that held 29.5 per game scoring Giannis Antetokounmpo to just 21 per and by being a whopping 63 better on threes. Part of that was due to holding Milwaukee to 32 percent behind the line to their 37 percent, but a bigger factor was taking 36 more long-range bombs.

How’d They Get There? – Celtics: Team defense and getting to the line. The Raptors were held to 32 percent on threes and 44 percent on twos when in the regular season it was 37 percent and 52 percent. Which is how they held their own despite Toronto taking 29 more shots, 20 of which were from downtown. But overall the C’s were just a +1 in points from the field. The difference was at the foul line, where they outscored Toronto 128-108 by taking it inside to get fouled (Tatum was a series best 43-54) and earning more opportunities by being better in transition.

The Key Players

Guys who need to be the game-to-game best player for their team to win.

Heat – Jimmy Butler: There are things I don’t like about him and I probably don’t give him as much credit as he deserves. But he’s a good fit in Miami because it demands maximum effort from everyone so his chirping about that is less irritating. He’s also their leading scorer and a strong defender who’ll give Kemba, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown trouble.

Celtics – Jayson Tatum:

There was a lot of gushing over him during the Raptor series, but there was a lot to not gush about too. The rebounding, defense and passing, especially on the move, have all improved, as has his versatility in scoring, so he’s on his way to becoming something. But he needs to knock off the stream of brain dead plays that kill half-court flow and lead to turnovers or forced shots. Plus stop whining after every call and non-call. It diverts attention from getting back on D or being in the moment while building a rep as a whiner. In short, time to grow up. Though I must continually remind myself he’s just 22. By contrast Larry Bird was 26 in his third NBA season. Next step to being the Top 10 player he can be is greater full-time focus and growing maturity.

X-Factors

Things the pundits don’t talk enough about that can have a big impact.

Heat – The Bench: The mid-year additions of grizzled Andre Iguodala and old friend Jae Crowder made them more physical defensively and lengthened their bench, which could be a key since we’re never sure what the Celtics bench will do.

Celtics – Marcus Smart: It’d be nice to get Gordon Hayward back, but it’s Marcus who makes big plays in so many different ways. He’s got no fear, which is why he’s the only inconsistent shooter I’m OK seeing take the last shot because he’s convinced he’ll make it even when he’s 1-25.

Five Things Boston Must Do To Win: (1) Do not drift on Miami’s three-point shooters. Especially Robinson and Herro, who they must make put it on the floor, because when they catch and shoot they’re deadly. (2) Solid man defense on everyone because double teams and rotations leave the weak side open, where Miami kills you. (3) Win the transition game. (4) Make threes. Miami will take more, so Boston needs to shoot a better percentage. (5) Tatum can’t drift mentally, because they need him in the moment the whole series.

Here’s our annual look at what lies ahead for the Patriots as they begin the quest for another Super Bowl title on longer odds than they’ve had in quite a while.

2020 Schedule: With all the division games likely to be tougher and Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson on the docket, along with 2019 top pick Kyler Murray and Jimmy G, it’s challenging. Though a Jimmy G-vs.-Tom game would have been fun.

Coronavirus Defections: With a league-leading nine guys including key cogs Dont’a Hightower, Pat Chung and Marcus Cannon they got hit hard.

Secondary: Everyone is back from the league’s best secondary but Chung and the traded Duron Harmon, for whom untested but versatile 2019 No. 2 pick Joejuan Williams will step in. But with versatility, depth and having the NFL’s best corner, Stephon Gilmore, it should be a major strength again.

The O-Line: With anchor Dave Andrews back at center, Shaq Mason healthy and after finally seeing what Isaiah Wynn can do, this looked to be a real strength after being such a disaster much of last year. But with Cannon opting out there’s a question at right tackle with no obvious answer. Jermaine Eluemunor has the inside track, but he played just 29 snaps last year, so it bears watching.

Running Back: On paper there’s depth with the most reliable being outstanding third down back James White. But there are issues. Sony Michel is wildly up and down, Rex Burkhead is brittle, I wonder why Damien Harris never played last year and free agent Lamar Miller had success in Houston but is coming off ACL surgery. Plus, I don’t see a goal line and short yardage back, do you?

Linebacker: Their top four linebackers — Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Jamie Collins — are gone and, sorry, that’s a bigger loss than the 2019 version of Brady. And I just don’t see their production being replaced by Ja’Whaun Bentley, two high draft picks and a bunch of who-the-heck-are-they free agents. Chase Winovich had his 2019 moments, but until I see more consistency, he’s just a guy with Mark Gastineau-esque “hey, look at me” gyrations after he occasionally does something good.

Receivers: Beyond Julian Edelman who knows what they’ll get here and at 34 I’m expecting a tick down from him. Mohamed Sanu? N’Keal Harry? Jakobi Meyers? The rookie tight ends? Two had better emerge or they’ve got big problems. OK, cross off Sanu, who got cut already after giving up a second pick for him.

The Draft: They need players to contribute from both the 2020 and 2019 draft classes. But with just five guys left from the three before that, I’m not filled with confidence.

Kicking Game: They’ve had two kickers in 24 years. Will rookie Justin Rohrwasser make it three in 36? Or will he lose out to the capable Nick Folk to break the string?

X-Factor – Cam Newton: Not sure what he’s going to be. But I do know if they want to make the playoffs he’s got to be good because the O must carry a bigger part of the load this year than last year.

AFC East: For 20 years the Pats have mostly had a giant edge in coaching during division play. But that’s not likely the case vs. Sean McDermott and Brian Flores in Buffalo and Miami at least. So with that gap smaller and all three teams dramatically improved in the second half last year, I expect a more tense race than usual with everyone bunched between 11-5 and 8-8.

Prediction – Because he’s reduced his TO’s considerably and can make enough plays to win with their defense I’m a believer in Buffalo QB Josh Allen. SoI’m picking Buffalo to win the East followed by NE, Miami and NY.

Departure of You Know Who: Thanks for the memories, but based on what he did just last year the bar is not set all that high for his replacement.

Bill Belichick: The real “was it Tom or Bill?” battle begins, where I suspect, with his rep in doubt to a degree, we’ll be reminded of just how much more impact a good coach in football has over the top guys in other sports.