There are seven days left in the endless lead-up to the NFL draft, when mock drafts from so-called experts have grown from being fun draft-day reading into a four-month-long marathon. All being presented by “insiders” who act like they know exactly what each team is thinking. Except since everyone is different, it shows no one is doing anything more than guessing.
Case in point, all the yacking following the 49ers trading up to the third spot to supposedly get Alabama QB Mac Jones because he’s Coach Kyle Shanahan’s kind of pocket passing QB. That caught special attention in Patriot Nation because it could impact NE’s ability to fill their long-term need at QB in a draft filled with high upside options. Except then came stories knocking Jones for not being an elite athlete and that SF really wanted uber athletic Trey Lance of North Dakota State, until Ohio State’s Justin Fields ran a 4.3 40 during his Pro Day. So the reality is they’re all just guessing about who’ll go right after Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson are the first two QBs taken off the board by the Jags and Jets.
So the bottom line is don’t take it all as gospel. Just enjoy it all because it informs you about needs of teams ahead of the Pats and for how the big board ranks those who’ll be in play leading up to the Pats pick at (for now) 15. Here’s a guide to what they face next Thursday night, with a sprinkle of what I’d do if I were the GM making their decisions.
Should They Trade Up? It would be like Coach B to make everyone crazy by gambling that the QB they like will fall to them at 15. That doesn’t seem likely, but stranger things have happened. Having said that, unless they’re certain they can get who they want, they shouldn’t deal until they can guarantee they’ll get him.
Is Trading Up Worth The Price? It’ll take a combination of picks from Rounds 1-3 to go up. Here’s who they’ve taken in Rounds 1-3 since 2012. So you be the judge how damaging losing any of those picks would have been to the cause. Round 1 – Dont’a Hightower, Chandler Jones, Dominique Easley, Malcom Brown,Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry. Round 2 – Tavon Wilson, Aaron Dobson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Duke Dawson , Joejuan Williams, Kyle Dugger. Round 3 – Jake Bequette, Logan Ryan, Joe Thuney, Geneo Grissom, Antonio Garcia, Chase Winovich and Anfernee Jennings. For me, out of 24 picks or tradeouts, just Hightower, Jimmy G, Ryan, Thuney and Wynn are big losses and the last four could be replaced.
Who Needs To Be Boxed Out: (1) Denver (ninth) – Drew Lock is the latest John Elway QB failure. (2) Washington (19) – they’re going with 112-year-old short-term rental Ryan Fitzpatrick. (3) Chicago (20) – with the GM and coach on the hotseat, more likely they need immediate help from a veteran. (4) Pittsburgh (24) – Big Ben is on his last legs, so beware. (5) New Orleans (28) – if you missed the news Drew Brees just retired and has only question marks behind him.
The Possible Trade-Up Slots:
4 – Atlanta: With cap hits of $48 million, $40 million and $28 million over the next three years they can’t trade Matt Ryan. So it doesn’t make sense to draft a QB and sit him for two years. Realistic trade possibility.
5 – Cincinnati: Joe Burrow got killed all year leading to a torn ACL. So an improved O-Line is badly needed, which they can get at 15. Unless they prefer a top receiver like LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase.
6 – Miami: They’re not helping the Pats. But they can probably get one of Chase, Kyle Pitts, Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle among the top receivers they’re eyeing with the ninth spot they’d get in a trade with Denver.
7 – Carolina: They just gave up five draft picks for Sam Darnold so he’s probably on a two-year QB trial. A possible trade partner.
9 – Denver: They need a QB too and since the leap from 4, 5 or 6 from 9 is not as costly as it is from 15, they’re the biggest competitive threat.
Best Mock Draft Trade: Here’s the best trade-up deal I saw that gets the Pats in position to get a QB. It’s from NJ.com, which covers the Jets and Giants. They predicted a trade with Carolina for the eighth pick to take Lance in return for a first and third in 2021 and a second-round pick in 2022. Don’t know if it’s realistic, but the net is, their QB for just a second and a third. Providing I like the 17-0 in college Lance, where he never threw even one interception: done.
Is Athleticism Overrated? I guess the experts somehow missed that the 43-year-old who runs like an ostrich just won his seventh SB in February. And that 17 of the last 20 SB’s have been won by non-athletic QB’s. Which says that despite trendy thinking, QB athleticism is really a(n un-needed) luxury and that’s it.
Go QB Or Bust: I know they need one. But given that 34 of the 74 Round I QB’s since 1990 have been busts and 16 others just mediocre, picking in Round I guarantees nothing, not even for Lawrence. History shows one or more of the so-called top five QBs aren’t going to work out, and that 24 QB’s taken below Round 1 turned out to be very good to excellent, including three of the four leaders (Brady, Brees, Favre) in TD passes all-time. So we could look back in 10 years and see that likely second-rounders Kellen Mond of Texas A&M or Florida’s Kyle Trask were actually the guys who should have gone in Round I. All of which leaves me with only one clear feeling going into draft night.