With the general managers meeting being held in California last week, baseball’s hot stove league is off and running. It is by far the most interesting part of the baseball year for me — the team-building phase. It involves teams analyzing their strengths and weaknesses, an avalanche of unfounded trade rumors, the free agent sweepstakes, bargain hunting and some actual big trades.
There’s usually also an ample number of colossally dumb moves, with most being the result of over-spending by desperate teams to eventually handcuff them financially for years to come like the Sox dropping $178 million on Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to placate irritable fans after finishing last in 2014.
But with Sox GM Chaim Bloom having a different mandate from ownership, that doesn’t seem to be the case going forward. At least let’s hope not.
Before they can figure out what they should do, they need to decide their strengths and weaknesses, whom they’re willing to trade if need be and what the financial picture is. The latter is the place to start because, like it or not, it determines every move.
Financial situation: With a payroll north of $190 million they are not “Tampa Bay by the Charles,” as Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy mockingly calls them. He still somehow doesn’t get that what makes an owner a good one is not how much they spend but how they spend it, Exhibit A being those D-Rays, who despite spending $334 million less on payroll have won 34 more games than Boston in the last three seasons, finished ahead of them all three times and won the AL East twice. And if 2020 had been a full 162-game season it would be more like 50 wins and $400 million. I get how people don’t like TB’s style and treating stat geekiness as gospel. But, out of pure necessity, they have figured out how to win cost-effectively. That seems like a process to study, not mock.
After some financial pruning after Bloom arrived to get under the luxury tax line and put the financial house in order, the Soxappear to havethe flexibility to go after a big free agents if they choose. Though any move must take into account that Xander Bogaerts and Raffy Devers will be up for mega deals after 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Biggest strengths:(1) Whether they re-sign Kyle Schwarber or not, the batting order from 2-5 is top-notch. (2) Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck give them two young, versatile pitchers to build around, whether it’s in the bullpen or as low-cost starters for the next five years. (3) Position versatility from Kiké Hernandez and Alex Verdugo. (4) With Whitlock, Houck, Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta they have options on where to go to strengthen the full pitching staff. (5) Team karma under Alex Cora.
Biggest weaknesses: (1) Infield defense. (2) A mostly awful bullpen, which is bad when your manager routinely pulls starters far too early in games than he should. That’s especially if Houck and Whitlock become starters. (3) A second baseman. (4) A lead-off and it would be nice if he could also play second base.
Biggest question mark:What can/will Sale be going forward? Ace, or fourth-level starter?
Top trade bait:(1) J.D. Martinez. (2) Alex Verdugo. I like him, but I’m not in love with him, so in the right deal — go. (3) Raffy Devers. Given the financial realities of the day, they’ll probably have to decide who gets the giant contract, Bogie or Raffy. I’d take Bogie because his body will age better and eventually be a better big bat defensive option at third. Hope I’m wrong ’cause he could be great, but that’s what I see eventually happening. (4) Depending what happens with Schwarber and Raffy, Bobby Dalbec.
Decision 1 – J.D. Martinez.He opted into his final year at $20 million so they have a DH. Some don’t think that was a good thing, but I do because they now have a good player to put in any deal they want to.
Decision 2 – Whitlock and Tanner. If they stay in the bullpen, it gives them two two-inning pitchers to build around. But even with the value that offers, I’d make them starters because it gives the Sox two low-cost options in the rotation under contractual control for several years. If Pivetta can follow up his decent 2021 season that makes three, to leave a lot of resources to invest in the total makeover needed for the bullpen.
Decision 3 – Big trade vs. big free agent. In lieu of the plan of developing a deep farm system, I lean toward free agent to fill major holes. That lets the farm system rebuild continue without pulling talent out before the plan is done.
Decision 4 – Big hitter. As long as the length of the deal doesn’t go beyond four years (five at the most) I’m fine with re-signing Kyle Schwarber.In addition to his power, I like his position (DH, LF, 1B) versatility. Plus if they sign him Martinez could be traded for relief pitching. Another option is Marcus Semien, who hit 45 homers and knocked in 102 for Toronto and since he plays second base he’d fill two needs. Though I wonder if he can do it again since it was the career year.
Once that’s all done, it’s time to act. Hopefully leading to more Tampa Bay by the Charles moves along the lines of Bloom spending just $10 million for the 51 homers, 159 RBI, a gold glove nomination and a crazy productive post-season delivered by Kiké Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe rather than the aforementioned Ramirez/Sandoval $178 million debacle Shaughnessy “commended” when it happened in 2014, and that the baseball economic dinosaur apparently still pines for.