The NFL draft is one week away, so the Pats are now on the clock in deciding how they should proceed.
Given how many holes they have to fill, the question is what will they prioritize since they likely can’t get immediate help for all of them?
Last time we saw them they were getting blown out 47-17 by Buffalo in the playoffs when the D did not stop the Bills from scoring even once all day, and with the offense stifled most of the day as well, it’s fair to say both units need an infusion of talent.
However, since then they’ve lost their best defender as J.C. Jackson left for a giant free agent contract, along with two very reliable but on-the-back-nine linebackers in Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy. On O they lost both starting guards though Michael Onwenu takes over one slot.
They did lure Malcolm Butler out of retirement to (hopefully) replace Jackson at DB, along with adding the latest Alabama import, Mack Wilson, and safety Jabrill Peppers as acquisitions on D. Of course since last we saw Butler was being mysteriously benched during the SB loss to the Eagles, the trade price for Wilson was just Portsmouth-loving LB disappointment Chase Winovich, and with Peppers coming off ACL surgery you wonder how much help they’ll provide.
Meanwhile, in between stupidly firing their coach Brian Flores and having an alleged NFL illegal plot to steal Tom Brady from Tampa Bay that was undone by Flores’ subsequent lawsuit, the Dolphins added RB Chase Edmonds, wideout Cedric Wilson and the electric Tyreek Hill to juice their offense, and Buffalo made wideout Stefon Diggs happy with a big extension and added edge rusher Von Miller to its already very good defense.
So it appears they’ve taken a step back in the AFC East as Coach B fiddles away with Rome burning.
Thus they need to come out of this draft (via picks or trades) as productively as last year in getting Mac Jones, Christian Barmore and all-name-teamer Rhamondre Stevenson.
The so-called experts tell us they need help on D at cornerback, a big run-stopper on the line and probably two mobile linebackers. On O, it’s a starting guard and a tackle for depth. I’ll add, even with the acquisition of the solid DeVante Parker, an A-level receiving target.
They’re not likely to get all that next weekend. So what should they do?
Prevailing wisdom says take the best available player regardless of position to improve wherever they can. But if they do that, it’ll likely get some improvement, but not make them great on either side of the ball.
To my way of thinking it’s better to have one dynamic unit than two mediocre ones because the dynamic one gives you a better chance to control the game than mediocre units do.
I’d focus the draft on just offense for these reasons, to get more out of their young QB and solid runners by putting better pieces around them.
In Year 1 without Josh McDaniels, it’s more likely Coach B can coach up the D better than they’ll be able to do on O.
In Butler, Jackson, Van Noy, Rob Ninkovich and others they’ve always been able to take undrafted free agents or guys off the scrap heap and find productive roles on defense more than on offense.
In Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings and Ronnie Perkins they’ve invested in three linebackers from the top three rounds the last two drafts, while red shirt LB Cameron McGrone supposedly only fell to Round 4 because of his late 2021 ACL surgery. So time to find out if they can play.
With offense the focus, my top priority is an A+-level receiver. They’ll be reluctant to do that. But just look at the difference Ja’Marr Chase made for worst-to-best Cincy as they went from scoring 311 points in 2020 to 463 after he arrived. Ditto for Stefon Diggs in Buffalo and look what Cooper Kupp means to the Rams. And to those who point to the acquisition of Parker, I’ll ask, if he was that good why did Miami need to get Hill? He’ll make the overall receiving better but he’s an injury-prone two.
How do they get that guy? Given their abysmal record for drafting receivers, they need to trade for one.
Like in 2007 when they used picks at the top of the draft to trade for Wes Welker (a 2) and Randy Moss (3). All that did was deliver 210 new catches, 2,600-plus receiving yards and 31 TD’s to turn Tom Brady into TOM BRADY and a defense-first team to offense-first that averaged 12 wins a year and five SB appearances over the next 12 years as the D went from in decline to downright awful before the arrival of Darrelle Revis in 2014.
They won’t get something that incredible this time, but that’s what they should do. Of course they’ll have to be willing to part with their top pick for sure and another high one (at least) preferably in the future.
I’m fine with either of the two biggest names rumored to be on the move in advance of big 2023 contract demands, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. Patriots rarely do that, but Moss was at the top of the market and so was Gronk eventually, so their history shows it works. A trade now for either in the last year of their rookie contract makes them affordable now and with $29 million from Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor coming off the books after 2022, their big number extension goes into their slot.
Then with their second and third pick (if they still have them) go for O-line help unless they can trade picks for immediate help there as well. Then next if need be go all D.
There you have it. That’s my plan.