Author: Dave Long

Today is like Christmas for football personnel junkies, as Round 1 of the annual draft of college players goes off in Vegas tonight.

It’s the first of a three-day extravaganza that creates a lot of buzz around NFL Nation for mock drafts, potential trades and maneuvering around the board.

So as I sit here hoping Coach B makes the bold move I know he won’t — swing for the fences to get the home run-hitting wide receiver they need — here’s a series of thoughts buzzing in my head as Round 1 begins Thursday, April 28, at 8 p.m. in the east.

For a change there hasn’t been much rumble about QBs in this draft, the most discussed subject being the undersized hands of the guy at the top of the QB board, Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh.

It’s a stark contrast to last year, when the likely five first rounders were the catalyst for two major pre-draft trades, as they captured all the conversational oxygen in the room. That the last picked of those five, Mac Jones, had by far the best rookie year was a big story through the entire year, even as the Pats’ December fade helped Ja’Marr Chase deservedly sneak by Mac to be Rookie of the Year for his dramatic impact in Cincy.

Instead QB’s in the league already have dominated the pre-draft headlines. This included the Packers bowing to Aaron Rodgers’ bluff of wanting out of Green Bay to give him what he really wanted — being the highest-paid player in the NFL. Russell Wilson got his wish to get out as Seattle headed to a rebuild. Denver paid a king’s ransom to get him to end their playoff-less streak since Peyton Manning retired after 2015. Here’s hoping it doesn’t end as I hate when ungrateful quitters come out on top after walking out on teams that took a big chance on them at the start.

A similar price was paid to finally put an end to the Deshaun Watson saga in Houston and bring his enormous baggage with him to Cleveland. I’m hoping he hits rough seas too, both for his alleged sexual misconduct activities and so Cleveland Browns’ slimy, ends-justify-the-means owner Jimmy Haslam doesn’t benefit either.

That move sent Baker Mayfield into pout mode because he somehow can’t see why the Browns would want to start over at QB over committing ginormous money to a QB with a most uneven record.

Seattle and Carolina are rumored to be likely places to land. Not sure which is worse as Panthers Coach Matt Rhule looks to be a year away from the firing squad and Seattle puts him back in the same situation he was in when he got to Cleveland.

Big paydays also came to wide receivers in various ways: extensions (Stefon Diggs), free agency (Davante Adams to Vegas) and trade (Tyreek Hill to Miami, as their growing influence on the game in the 2020s becomes more evident by the year.

With both Diggs and now Hill in the AFC East, and the flush with draft capital Jets looking for a big play guy, those moves are why the Patriots need to get in the DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel sweepstakes, as over the next five years to win in the East you’re going to have to outscore the other guy. Similar to Coach B deducing in 2007 he needed to bring in Randy Moss and Wes Welker as outscoring them would be the only way to beat Manning and the Colts. And with an evolving QB who could use the extra help and on his rookie contract it will never be more affordable than right now.

Anyone know the Vegas odds for Jacksonville taking the wrong guy with the top pick? Since they only fired Urban Meyer and not the GM who hired him, I’m betting it’s worth the investment to lay down a few bob on a blown pick.

Finally, something to bear in mind as the so-called draft insiders yack about measurables, intangibles and great value picks while gushing over every player taken as if they’ll be the second coming of Barry Sanders, Jerry Rice and/or Lawrence Taylor. It’s an inexact science where only about 25 percent turn out to be as good as they were bloviated about, and sometimes after thought 199th picks turn out to be GOATs, and first overalls like JaMarcus Russell can’t start for the local YMCA.

Exhibit A is Mike Mayock, a talking head who was considered the draft “guru” while analyzing drafts on TV before and after all the picks were made. That is until the crystal ball he was oh-so confident in magically became quite foggy when he had to do it for real as the personnel chief of the Raiders under the defrocked Jon Gruden.

The record is pretty mixed with 2019 picks Josh Jacobs in Round 2 and wideout Hunter Renfrow in Round 5 being the highlights. The lows were character misses on 2020 first-round picks Alabama wideout Henry Ruggs III and DB Damon Arnette. Ruggs is now sitting in jail with his career likely over, after a woman was killed when he crashed his car into hers while allegedly intoxicated and driving 150 MPH on the Vegas strip last October. While Arnette was released a short while after that when a video surfaced of him brandishing firearms a la Aaron Hernandez and making violent threats.

Evaluating all aspects of the talent package is a lot harder than the yackers make it out to be.

OK, Jaguars, you’re on the clock.

The NFL draft is one week away, so the Pats are now on the clock in deciding how they should proceed.

Given how many holes they have to fill, the question is what will they prioritize since they likely can’t get immediate help for all of them?

Last time we saw them they were getting blown out 47-17 by Buffalo in the playoffs when the D did not stop the Bills from scoring even once all day, and with the offense stifled most of the day as well, it’s fair to say both units need an infusion of talent.

However, since then they’ve lost their best defender as J.C. Jackson left for a giant free agent contract, along with two very reliable but on-the-back-nine linebackers in Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy. On O they lost both starting guards though Michael Onwenu takes over one slot.

They did lure Malcolm Butler out of retirement to (hopefully) replace Jackson at DB, along with adding the latest Alabama import, Mack Wilson, and safety Jabrill Peppers as acquisitions on D. Of course since last we saw Butler was being mysteriously benched during the SB loss to the Eagles, the trade price for Wilson was just Portsmouth-loving LB disappointment Chase Winovich, and with Peppers coming off ACL surgery you wonder how much help they’ll provide.

Meanwhile, in between stupidly firing their coach Brian Flores and having an alleged NFL illegal plot to steal Tom Brady from Tampa Bay that was undone by Flores’ subsequent lawsuit, the Dolphins added RB Chase Edmonds, wideout Cedric Wilson and the electric Tyreek Hill to juice their offense, and Buffalo made wideout Stefon Diggs happy with a big extension and added edge rusher Von Miller to its already very good defense.

So it appears they’ve taken a step back in the AFC East as Coach B fiddles away with Rome burning.

Thus they need to come out of this draft (via picks or trades) as productively as last year in getting Mac Jones, Christian Barmore and all-name-teamer Rhamondre Stevenson.

The so-called experts tell us they need help on D at cornerback, a big run-stopper on the line and probably two mobile linebackers. On O, it’s a starting guard and a tackle for depth. I’ll add, even with the acquisition of the solid DeVante Parker, an A-level receiving target.

They’re not likely to get all that next weekend. So what should they do?

Prevailing wisdom says take the best available player regardless of position to improve wherever they can. But if they do that, it’ll likely get some improvement, but not make them great on either side of the ball.

To my way of thinking it’s better to have one dynamic unit than two mediocre ones because the dynamic one gives you a better chance to control the game than mediocre units do.

I’d focus the draft on just offense for these reasons, to get more out of their young QB and solid runners by putting better pieces around them.

In Year 1 without Josh McDaniels, it’s more likely Coach B can coach up the D better than they’ll be able to do on O.

In Butler, Jackson, Van Noy, Rob Ninkovich and others they’ve always been able to take undrafted free agents or guys off the scrap heap and find productive roles on defense more than on offense.

In Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings and Ronnie Perkins they’ve invested in three linebackers from the top three rounds the last two drafts, while red shirt LB Cameron McGrone supposedly only fell to Round 4 because of his late 2021 ACL surgery. So time to find out if they can play.

With offense the focus, my top priority is an A+-level receiver. They’ll be reluctant to do that. But just look at the difference Ja’Marr Chase made for worst-to-best Cincy as they went from scoring 311 points in 2020 to 463 after he arrived. Ditto for Stefon Diggs in Buffalo and look what Cooper Kupp means to the Rams. And to those who point to the acquisition of Parker, I’ll ask, if he was that good why did Miami need to get Hill? He’ll make the overall receiving better but he’s an injury-prone two.

How do they get that guy? Given their abysmal record for drafting receivers, they need to trade for one.

Like in 2007 when they used picks at the top of the draft to trade for Wes Welker (a 2) and Randy Moss (3). All that did was deliver 210 new catches, 2,600-plus receiving yards and 31 TD’s to turn Tom Brady into TOM BRADY and a defense-first team to offense-first that averaged 12 wins a year and five SB appearances over the next 12 years as the D went from in decline to downright awful before the arrival of Darrelle Revis in 2014.

They won’t get something that incredible this time, but that’s what they should do. Of course they’ll have to be willing to part with their top pick for sure and another high one (at least) preferably in the future.

I’m fine with either of the two biggest names rumored to be on the move in advance of big 2023 contract demands, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. Patriots rarely do that, but Moss was at the top of the market and so was Gronk eventually, so their history shows it works. A trade now for either in the last year of their rookie contract makes them affordable now and with $29 million from Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor coming off the books after 2022, their big number extension goes into their slot.

Then with their second and third pick (if they still have them) go for O-line help unless they can trade picks for immediate help there as well. Then next if need be go all D.

There you have it. That’s my plan.

The NBA regular season is a wrap and the playoffs come your way starting Sunday for the Celtics, likely vs. Brooklyn, pending the result of Tuesday’s play-in game with Cleveland that happened after this column was filed.

Thanks to having Kevin Durant, most feel it will be the Nets. Which has a lot of people making a big deal about having to play them so early. But if they are as formidable as most think (besides me), sooner or later you usually see them, so who cares if it’s in Round 1, 2 or 3? Though admittedly it would’ve been preferable to have Rob Williams on board when/if he’s able to come back from knee surgery.

The sooner or later theory eluded Bucks Coach Mike Budenholzer, however; he took the chicken’s way out by tanking on Sunday to set up a more favorable match-up with the fading Bulls, a move that could turn out to be a strategic blunder if they face the C’s in Round 2, as it gift-wrapped the second seed and home court advantage that came with it to his opponent. On the plus side, however, the chicken’s way out does eliminate the prospect of having to face both Boston and New Jersey, er, Brooklyn, because one will knock off the other. Of course it’s also bulletin board material, because it says chicken man Budenholzer thinks the Nets are gonna win, so they’ll get home court anyway.

So now Celtics Nation has another person to hate sports in the 2022 playoffs, which will (likely) be focused on dastardly Kyrie Irving in Round 1 and chicken man in Round 2 if they get that far. Though Cleveland upsetting NJ, er, Brooklyn would unravel that plan faster than the Brian Flores lawsuit vs. the NFL deep-sixed Tom Brady’s alleged plot to stab folks in Tampa Bay in the back via a QB coup to install himself as the guy under center in Miami.

So boo to Kyrie. Boo to the new NBA chicken man. And if true, boo especially to the increasingly duplicitous Brady. But I digress on that one.

With all that laid out, here are some more Celtics and non-Celtics playoff thoughts.

Bravo for Ime Udoka for going for the win on Sunday vs. Memphis to get home court in Round 2 over an easier Round 1 match-up. Then again he didn’t have much of a choice, ’cause if they tanked and Philly won (which they did) they would have fallen to the 4-seed. That would have meant a series vs. Toronto, where the allegedly unvaxxed Jaylen Brown would have missed all the games in Canada.

I’m taking Toronto over Philly, by the way, for two reasons. The Sixers’ valuable sixth man Matisse Thybulle is unvaxxed, so he can’t play north of the border. Plus while he whines more during games than anyone beside Bills coach Sean McDermott, Nick Nurse is a much better game coach than Doc Rivers, who has eight first-round knock-outs in 22 years.

I’ve also got Memphis coming out of the West, because I like their team D, which leads the NBA in steals and blocked shots, relentless offensive rebounding, and given his own unimpressive playoff history, I see Ja Morant winning head to head over Chris Paul.

Aside from the fact his head isn’t square, am I the only one who thinks Nikola Jokic is a dead ringer for Rocky Balboa’s nemesis Ivan Drago?

Joke of the Week: A priest walks into a bar — no, that’s not it. It was the talk show guy somewhere who asked after Kyrie’s recent 60-point game if he and KD were the greatest 1-2 punch in NBA history.

Cut to the laugh track.

Guess he missed KI not even being named to ESPN’s recent Top 75 Players List. On that list alone were Jordan and Pippen, Shaq and Kobe, Stockton and Malone, Bird and McHale, West and Baylor, Magic and Kareem, Kareem and Oscar, Oscar and Jerry Lucas, Cousy and Russell, Havlicek and Cowens, LeBron and Dwayne Wade or AD, Wilt and his next-door neighbor, let alone Hal Greer or Billy Cunningham. Heck, he’s not even in KD’s best two 1-2 punches with Steph Curry or Russell Westbrook.

So yank that guy’s press pass because he’s a historical doofus and basketball nitwit.

In 2009 we heard KG would be back for the playoffs. Ditto in 2011 with Shaq and it was the same for Bill Walton in 1987. None made it back. So they have to carry on as if Lob it to Rob is not coming back until they see him in a game.

Also, no hero ball. This guy’s legs are his game, so they should err on the side of caution no matter what.

Here’s my pick for Round 1 depending on who the Celtics play.

Cleveland vs. Boston: Tougher than you think. I love Darius Garland and rookie Evan Mobley. But if their center Jared Allen’s broken finger isn’t OK to go, his loss is more damaging to them than Lob it to Rob is to Boston. C’s in five.

Brooklyn vs. Boston: KD is one of the few guys who can win a series on his own. So beware of him. Kyrie will do what he always does — have two games where most will say, “Wow, that guy is good.” Three more will be routine low in the 20’s games where he’ll get killed on D, and he’ll totally choke in two more. So the series comes down to this: Tatum has to play Durant even and Jaylen has to be better than Kyrie. I’ll bet on JB and the Celtics far superior team defense. C’s in six.

Likable Celtics cheerleader Brian Scalabrine has said several times of late, Tatum is a Top 10 player. But sorry, he can’t be considered that until he dominates in the playoffs.

So the chance to make that statement is at hand.

Enjoy.

There is an old saying that goes, that which doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. I’m not sure who said it first or why, but I do know the most recent team in sports it applies to is your Boston Celtics, a team that justifiably had everyone from Jamestown, R.I., to Presque Isle on their back through the first 10 weeks of the NBA season. All thanks to blowing one big lead after another in one lax effort after the next.

However, that was then and this is now. They’ve gone from 18-21 after blowing a 25-point lead in an excruciating loss to the Knicks on Jan. 6 to 49-30 following Sunday’s 42-point beatdown of Washington.

The 32-9 surge sends them into next week’s playoffs as the hottest team in the East and maybe the top seed in the conference.

The question is how did that happen, especially since it seemingly came from nowhere.

Before I get to that, first the mea culpa. Boy did I get it wrong saying in a blowtorch column right after the loss at MSG that they would be battling for the 10th playoff spot as this week arrived.

Though while I was wrong about that, I was right about what they needed most to solve their problems — a real point guard and better, more determined leadership from Jayson Tatum. Qualities that I’d given up he’d ever develop. Never saw anyone on the roster ever being a real point guard either. Finally I said Ime Udoka looked over his head.

So back to how it happened.

In order:

Point guard: Rarely does the light bulb go on for someone in their eighth season, but it has for Marcus Smart since mid-January. Now the first move is going below the three-point line to draw defenders to him, giving Tatum and Jaylen Brown better openings to shoot or drive. It also gives him 10-foot pull-up opportunities or lanes for shots at the rim or lobs to Rob. It’s been the key to the improvement.

Tatum’s maturity: Through the surge he’s been mostly sensational. Though after seeing him sulk his way through the second half of last week’s Miami loss after letting horrid officiating get his head, it’s not all there just yet. But he now looks so much more determined and physical in regularly taking it to the basket. The last piece needed is to better fight through the adversity like vs. Miami, because that’s what he’s going to see in the playoffs.

Shot selection: Mostly gone now are Tatum, Brown and especially Smart infuriatingly chucking up the first three that shows. Ditto for Tatum’s loved by him and absolutely despised by me Kobe-like isolation step back shot that takes everyone besides him out of the offense

Passing on all the ill-advised threes and destructive isolations has led to a greater overall patience to search out better shots through the shot clock. That’s improved field goal percentages on both twos and threes. But more importantly it’s led Tatum and Brown to attack the rim as the first option for the higher percentage attempts and more free throws that come at the rim. Both are now a threat to score 30 every night and this is why they’re so much harder to guard. Not to mention more fun to watch.

Passing: There are two kinds of passing. The first is programmed ball movement where guys automatically have places to send it to get ahead of defensive rotations and into open areas like weak side corner for a three. The quicker and more decisively it’s done the better because it’s where most open half-court shots come from. Everyone seems to be better at that now. But chief among them is Rob Williams in particular who’s become very adept at this. It’s the least talked about part of his improvement, and has a positive impact on the half-court offense.

The other kind is passing off the dribble during penetration, for drop-offs when double teamed, in transition, to cutters coming from the weak side or off picks and on lobs to Rob, which has become a major element in the half court offense and on the break. While there have always been flashes of this and Al Horford has always been solid here, Tatum and Smart have had a Cousy-esque transformation in their ability to get people wide open shots or lay-ups while on the move.

The Coach: One of the biggest mistakes I’ve made during my time writing this column was saying Udoka looks over his head as an NBA coach. Dead wrong. Turns out it was just part of the learning curve.

It’s obvious this team listens to him. Both the improved shot selection and especially the transformation of Smart’s offensive approach are coaching things. Ditto for their league-best team defense, which has been solid since Day 1. Something that makes them built more sturdily for the slower, more physical play in the playoffs.

Bottom line, he’s the biggest reason for the turnaround.

And while all this was going on, we also got the answer to the biggest question looming over the future of the franchise.

Can Tatum and Brown play together? This question was endlessly asked through the first 10 weeks. And I said in January it needed an answer. Though I added we’ll never really know until they play with a real point guard who gives them the ball where each can do something with it. With Smart now doing that, the answer is yes. Which is good, because at 24 and 25 they could be on their way to becoming the best 1-2 scoring punch in Celtics history. And yes I have heard the names Jones, Havlicek, Bird, McHale, Pierce, Walker and the rest.

Along with drastically improved play from the bench, that takes care of what happened. Next week we’ll preview the playoffs and talk about what Brad Stevens has done to change their immediate fortunes.

Idle thoughts today from an idle mind.

Given the Tom Brady-to-Miami rumor that surfaced last week, maybe we have a clue why TB’s retirement announcement seemed so botched. Maybe he quickly wanted the Bucs to contemplate life without him, to get leverage for forcing a trade to Miami. Where, oh by the way, he and Yoko are building their dream retirement home on billionaires row just off Miami Beach.

Loved Jimmy Kimmel’s assessment for the Rams’ woefully sparse Super Bowl victory parade turnout: “honestly, I think there were more football fans on the street cheering for OJ during the slow-motion chase.”

Speaking of L.A., so much for it being the center of the basketball universe. Just two summers ago when the Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard and traded for Paul George after the Lakers slimily, albeit legally, tampered to pair Anthony Davis with LeBron James it looked like that city was going to dominate the NBA for several years. But with the Clips 36-39 and the Lakers 31-43, both are fighting to barely make the play-in round.

And while the Lakers did win the title in the abbreviated bubble year, they’re just 162-137 in LeBron’s time in L.A., with that lowly play-in-round finish ahead, after being bounced in Round 1 last year and missing them all together in Year 1. And with the Clips even worse, it’s turned out to be a colossal failure considering the expectations. Especially when they collectively still owe the Pelicans and Thunder an astonishing seven more first-round picks through 2026. And none are protected as both trend down!

The Lakers predicament is good news for the Celtics. They’re tied with a most-ever 17 league titles, and with the C’s suddenly surging as Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum enter their prime, they look a lot more likely to get No. 18 first than I would have thought possible as late as New Year’s Day.

Anyone else notice that the Hornets have gone 8-2 since signing Isaiah Thomas when he scored 9.2 points per in 13 minutes a game off the bench? That includes their 119-110 win over the Nets in Sunday’s battle for the top seed in the play-in round that starts the playoffs.

Incidentally, with the mask mandate lifted, that game was the first one in Brooklyn for the guy Danny Ainge stupidly traded Isaiah (and the draft pick that turned out to be Collin Sexton) for — Kyrie Irving. The loss made the Nets 9-13 in the 22 games played by their so-called difference maker.

Hearing Deion Sanders say it was “disrespectful” when media people called him by his first name at a recent press conference instead of “coach” was comical. Pretty rich for a guy who showboated everyone anytime he did something big. As for not calling him by his title, you’re a football coach, Deion, not the president. Get a grip.

Speaking of pretty rich, how about ex-Patriot LeGarrette Blount recently lambasting college coach at Oregon Chip Kelly for “not supporting” him after he delivered an unprovoked sucker punch to an unsuspecting Boise State player after the first game of his senior season? So much for maturity helping him take responsibility.

Got to love ex-Trinity hooper Wenyen Gabriel getting another NBA chance in L.A. He’s started in four of his 11 games with the Lakers, while averaging 6 points and 4 rebounds a game.

I don’t get HBO, so I haven’t seen any of its 1980s Showtime Lakers series. But I saw a clip of the first meeting between Jerry Buss and a made to be the villain Red Auerbach as an over-the-top (even for him) arrogant adversary. John C. Reilly as Buss looked more like a porn king than an NBA owner. Not sure I’m interested in seeing Jerry West as a bitter drunk either.

I crossed paths with Dr. Buss one time, just outside the Kingdome during the 1989 Final Four in Seattle. True to form, he came walking toward me before the Saturday afternoon games with a gorgeous 20-something blonde on each arm.

Loved the recent line from Will Clark, whose swing was often compared to Ted Williams during his 80s/90s heyday, while talking about today’s three-outcome — walk, strike out, homer — launch angle approach to hitting: it must have “Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb rolling over in their graves.”

When you hear Jermaine Wiggins say on WEEI the Patriots should trade Mac Jones for (before they were) Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson, don’t listen. Remember his suggestion to fix the 2017 dumpster fire Celtics was signing ball hog Carmelo Anthony. Wiggy’s a likable fellow, but a dope.

For what it’s worth, no matter how good he is I wouldn’t want Watson with 22 sexual misconduct complaints against him. (He has denied all the allegations, according to the New York Times.) However, since I don’t have much faith in mankind when sports is involved, I think the hoo-ha around him will disappear with a win or two as football-crazed Cleveland is win-hungry since it hasn’t won a playoff game since Bill Belichick bested Bill Parcells and the Patriots in 1994!

I give ESPN’s Tom Brady–Charles Woodson 30 for 30 on the Tuck Rule play a C- at best. It was 15 minutes (maybe) of new content stretched (endlessly) into 60. How many of the 900 replays shown did we really need to see? Six? How many times did we need to hear Woodson, Jon Gruden and Lincoln Kennedy say it was a fumble and they got screwed? Or Brady and Bob Kraft saying good call? All it did was remind me how close that call was, and that the play on the field would have stood because the replay was inconclusive. Bad rule. Right call.

Also, the notion Brady would have gone back to backing up Drew Bledsoe for fumbling was ridiculous. The season turned when TB replaced Drew.

For the second straight year Red Sox Nation was on the cusp of entering the final week of March wondering what in the name of Haywood Sullivan was going on up there in the executive suite. It seemed Chaim Bloom was again in the increasingly hated (for me) bargain basement mode while Rome burned.

But news broke Saturday that John Henry has finally opened his wallet to outbid the Yanks and others for free agent Trevor Story. A major get that let some of the Nation’s building frustration escape. Though Chaim’s not out of the woods just yet.

But enjoy it for the day before getting back to the important business of grousing about the other issues that need addressing before the season starts.

Trevor Story implications: Signing him was a two-fer, as the former shortstop (for now) gives them a solid fielding second baseman with major offensive pop. It also sends Kike Hernandez out to right field to fill both the offensive and defensive holes left by the departure of Hunter Renfroe that everyone has been wondering about all winter. It also provides insurance at short if Xander Bogaerts opts out and leaves at the end of the year.

So, since Bloom “only” had to go six years and $25 million per to get all that, job well done. Especially since Texas gave their arguably not as good and definitely more injury-prone new shortstop Corey Seager a whopping $330 million over 10 years to get him.

Losing Kyle Schwarber: Letting him walk was a missed opportunity. Keeping him would have given them three more years of contractual control at DH and let them trade J.D. Martinez when every team in the NL suddenly needs one. It would have been revenue-neutral too, as Schwarber will get less per year than the $20 million the Sox pay J.D., while also making the line-up less right-handed dominant than it is now.

With the line-up and defense settled, we turn to pitching, which looks like a hodge-podge mess.

Starting pitching: The good news is the stat geeks tell us number of wins by a starter is totally circumstantial and unimportant. Phew! Because the six guys likely to get the bulk of the starts — Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and newcomers Rich Hill and Michael Wacha — won a combined 34 games against 35 losses in 2021. Which means if 90 is the target, they need 56 wins from the pen. And while I like the promise Houck and Pivetta showed in 2021, am hopeful Sale and Eovaldi can avoid the injuries that have plagued their careers, wonder when it’ll end for the ageless Hill and have no faith in Wacha, the group as a whole doesn’t provide a lot of confidence.

So there are many questions looking for answers here, with the biggest coming from Chris Sale. The 5-1, 3.16 numbers after he returned from his 18-month Tommy John surgery absence look good. But it was a different story in the final 10 days of the regular season and in the playoffs when he struggled mightily. Was it natural fatigue or something more alarming?

Now comes the latest, a stress fracture in the ribcage. He’s calling it “a freak thing,” but it’s another reminder making you wonder if he has the body to face the rigors of pitching the 200-plus innings a year needed from your ace. Especially considering his last healthy season was way back in 2017. I don’t see him making a full 200-inning season anymore, which suggests a role change could be needed. Which brings us to the bullpen.

The bullpen: I know Tampa Bay won 100 games with a bullpen filled with guys making under a million dollars. But we also saw them knocked around in the playoffs, so I’d prefer a hybrid approach so you’re not bringing in seven new bargain basement guys every year as Chaim did in 2021 and basically is doing now, beyond Matt Barnes, who they’re stuck with after giving him an extension during his tremendous first half last year, and 2021 scrap heap find Garrett Whitlock. But beyond Whitlock, I had zero confidence in the pen after Barnes’ astonishing second-half collapse, because it has control issues and was used far too much by the suddenly micro-managing Alex Cora in games it was needed in. And 2022 starts out the same way.

Closer: To solidify the back end I’d make Sale the closer when he comes back for three reasons: (1) Pitching one inning every other day and 70 over the entire year would likely keep the arm fresher for the whole year instead of dealing with the dramatic second-half drop-offs that have plagued him since his days in Chicago; (2) Pitching just one inning gives him a better chance to regain the life to his fast ball and snap to his slider that have been missing since July 2018. (3) There’s no guarantee it’ll work, but almost every great closer was originally a failed starter. Including Mariano Rivera, who had durability issues starting. Not to mention the one-season record for saves is held by John Smoltz, set when arm issues prevented him from starting for three seasons.

Bottom line on the pitching: I know $30 million is usually too much to sink into a closer, but the money is already spent and the issue now is how to get the best bang for their $30 million.

So the Sox should not waste any more time. When Sale comes back, leave Houck in the rotation, give the seventh to Barnes, the eighth to Whitlock, and bite the bullet to make Sale the ninth-inning closer.

OK, so while I think it’s how you spend it, not how much, with payroll pruning done and David Price finally coming off the books after 2022 it’s time to spend to find more quality for the rotation and pen to give them a real chance in 2022.