Author: Dave Long

Well, the local nine put all those in Red Sox Nation with fears a second titanic-like season is dead ahead on Defcon 5 by getting swept by Baltimore right out of the box. It’s only the second time they’ve started a year with three straight losses at home and the first since 1948. Made all the worse by its being at the hands of the horrible for two decades Orioles.

Making matters even worse was after a historically bad team-wide pitching performance in 2020 they gave up 17 runs in three games and started the season with their two best pitchers on the DL. Though it’s expected that after missing all of last year it will be a short stay for Eduardo Rodriguez, who went there with the common late spring training malady “dead arm.” On the other hand the returning from Tommy John surgery Chris Sale likely won’t be seen before mid-July.

Compounding it all is the total organizational makeover underway by new (sort of) stat geek GM Chaim Bloom, which in two short seasons turned a 108-win world championship team into a last-place finish in the AL East. So, given the major skepticism coursing through the Nation for Bloom and his plan, it’s going to make finding even a glimmer of optimism a little tough. But seeing now that JD Martinez has his beloved video tools back he jumped out going 5-10 with a homer after his miserable 2020 campaign probably qualifies. There’s also, warts and all, the curiosity of seeing how/whether Bobby Dalbec develops into the Tony Conigliaro-like power hitter some are predicting, which would be sweet.

In the meantime, as some sit patiently, others not so much, watching the year unfold, here are some stories to keep an eye on around baseball as we begin the 2021 season.

Hoping Cleveland does what it appears Washington will do after dropping the Redskins nickname to be the Washington Football Team. Since contrived new nicknames rarely stick with anyone, The Cleveland Baseball Team rings true.

Baseball 101: Which player is the active leader in career hits?

Incidentally, if you follow these sort of things, Dalbec’s five strikeouts over the weekend project to 270 over 162 games. Probably a bit of an aberration, but if you’re headed to Vegas I’d bet the over on his K’s for the year no matter what it is.

For the record, the record for strikeouts in one season is 223 held by ex-Oriole Mark Reynolds in 2009. The 200-K season tells all what baseball has become in 2021. All 13 times someone has struck out 200-plus times have happened since 2008, when Reynolds whiffed 204 times. And you have to go all the way down to 31 on the single season list to find someone from the 20th century. That would be Barry’s father Bobby Bonds, who K’d 189 times with the Giants in 1969.

Actually there is another thing that exemplifies what baseball 2021 is: the handling of the pitching staff, and it only took all of two games for me to want to throw up in my mouth all over again on that after hearing Twins manager Rocco Baldelli pulled Jose Berrios on Saturday with a no-hitter in progress. Making it more maddening is that despite having a pitch count-consuming 12 strikeouts in six innings vs. Milwaukee he’d thrown just 84 pitches. Guess 84 is the new 100 pitch count. Despite that lunacy from Rocco, Minnesota still won 2-0. Here’s hoping Minnesota goes 1-161 after that.

However, from baseball’s sickening follow-the-leader approach to managing comes the story of Angels pitcher/outfielder Shohei Ohtani. In the first game he ever hit in the order on the day he pitched Ohtani achieved a first of its kind double-double. He registered 100 mph-plus three times in the first inning, then on the first pitch he saw later that inning he hit a 450-foot homer that went out at 115 mph. He also became the first pitcher to bat second in the order since the Cardinals’ Jack Dunleavy last did it in 1903!

Baseball 101 Answer: Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera is the hit leader with a 46th best all-time 2,867.

Cabrera is also 12 homers short of 500. But given recent history neither’s a lock for 2021. He’s only had the 133 hits needed for 3,000 once since the year after Dave Dombrowski made him the highest paid player in 2016. Ditto on the homers he needed for 500. And they still owe him a mind-bending $120 million.

Albert Pujols has even bigger historical targets in range, He’s 37 homers and 33 doubles shy of becoming the first ever member of the 700 club in both categories. Plus he’s 111 RBI behind Babe Ruth’s 2,214 for second best all time in runs batted in. However, like Cabrera he’s only reached each needed number one time in his nine years with the Angels.

Incidentally the $342 million 10-year contract Francisco Lindor just got from the Mets is not apples and apples with the Sox passing on a big one for Mookie Betts. The motivation in Metland was a new owner looking to make a good first impression. Plus they had just given up a lot of talent to bring him to NYC, and it would have made no sense to do that for a one-year rental. And new owner Steve Cohen is also a lifelong Mets fan boy and his team hadn’t won it since 1986.

Hearing that a Tommy John survivor hit 100 on the gun had to be music to Sale’s ears. Though never a strikeout pitcher like Sale, the real TJ went on to have three 20-win seasons, win 164 games overall and pitch until he was 46 after becoming the first to have it done in 1975.

So I’m guessing there is hope for an eventual return to form by Sale.

I said last week I don’t think Danny Ainge realizes how much trouble the Celtics are in. And that was before Saturday’s absolutely appalling, ah, win against the G-League team in Oak City they call the Thunder that came from a fourth-quarter blitz after a total non-effort during the first three quarters, when somehow they let a guy I never heard of go for 17 points and a Wilt Chamberlain-like 19 rebounds by halftime. Throw in their mostly lethargic play since an 8-2 start, best exemplified by their two losses to Brooklyn as they got rolled by Kyrie Irving, and it tells all you need to know. A total lack of fight and pride.

But the bigger problem is the decision-making for personnel by Ainge, which after a long run of terrific moves has been mostly terrible for three years. It’s led to a major talent drain as Irving, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier have walked while getting only the comparable, but oft injured, Kemba Walker back. This is compounded by an inability to build a stronger bench because of an irrational reluctance to part with his war chest of draft assets in deals. His many major draft misses over the last 10 years have led people to logically ask, if he can’t draft consistently, why not trade the picks for a guy you know can play in the NBA? Instead he keeps them, drafts badly and then is unable to get anything of value for players like Grant Williams and Aaron Nesmith because they are marginal players.

Not all of the decisions and draft picks have been bad, but many have. Here’s a summary.

2011-2012–Drafted: JaJuan Johnson (27th overall). Passed on: Jimmy Butler (29), Chandler Parsons (38). Coming and going: Big Baby Davis traded for Brandon Bass. End game: JaJuan lasted one year in the league, while Butler is a star and the kind of leader the Celtics lack.

2012-2013 –Drafted: Jared Sullinger (21) and Fab Melo (22). Passed on: Jae Crowder (34), Draymond Green (35), Khris Middleton (39). Coming and going: no one of consequence. End game: Sullinger was a serviceable player, while the late (not so) Fab actually outdid JuJuan by playing just six NBA games.

2013-2014 –Drafted: Kelly Olynyk (traded up to 13). Passed on: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15), Rudy Gobert (27). Coming and going: Nothing of any real consequence added or lost. End game: It’s hard to understand how Danny could be so in love with 3-point-shooting bigs, instead of 6’11” athletes who give 100 percent of their effort on every single play. The biggest mistake of the Ainge era.

2014-2015 –Drafted: Marcus Smart (6) and James Young (17). Passed on: Clint Capela (21), Nikola Jokic (41). Coming and going: A tank-athon season began with KG, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry being traded to Brooklyn. Trades of Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo and a draft pick brought back a first-round pick, Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. End game:Thomas trade shockingly turned a team headed nowhere into a playoff team.They wasted the first Brooklyn pick on Young, but the trade eventually delivered Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Irving, so it was a major win. Despite going sixth Smart was the second best guy drafted after Joel Embiid.

2015-2016 – Drafted: Rozier (16) and RJ Hunter (28). Passed on: Montrezl Harrell (32), Norman Powell (46). Coming and going: No major moves. End game: Rozier showed promise, but Hunter wasn’t the knock-down shooter he was billed as, but sadly Powell eventually was/is.

2016-2017 –Drafted: Brown (3), Guerschon Yabusele (16), Ante Zizic (23). Passed on: Pascal Siakam (27), Malcolm Brogdon (36). Coming and/or going: Signed Al Horford as a free agent in a very good move. End game: Brown has been even better than expected. But with Yabusele looking 50 pounds overweight on draft night, it’s mind-boggling Ainge took him at all, let alone in Round 1. His worst pick ever and when you also know he also picked JaJuan, Fab and RJ Jr. that’s saying something.

2017-2018–Drafted: Tatum (3). Passed on: De’Aaron Fox (5), Donovan Mitchell (13), Bam Adebayo (14). Coming and going: Callously dumped Thomas in trade for Irving and with signing Hayward optimism ran amok until six minutes into the season when Hayward suffered a gruesome injury. End game:Came within a half of going to the NBA finals with both Kyrie and Hayward sidelined for the playoffs.

2018-2019–Drafted: Robert Williams (28). Passed on: Devonte Graham (34).Coming and going: No notable transactions.End game: A dumpster fire of a season from start to early finish. Time Lord looks like a gift at 28.

2019-2020 – Drafted: Romeo Langford (14), Grant Williams (22). Passed on: no one notable. Coming and going: Before the year Kyrie and Horford walked for nothing in return and the Rozier now scoring 20 per night went for injury-hampered Kemba Walker. End game: Much better year but should have stuck with Rozier and traded Kyrie a season earlier.

2020-2021 – Drafted: Aaron Nesmith (14), Payton Pritchard (26). Passed on: Saddiq Bey (19), Immanuel Quickley (25). Coming and going: Lost Hayward after passing on a deal for shot-blocking stretch 4 Myles Turner and Doug McDermott. Instead took a $28 million trade exception with 17 just sent for Evan Fournier. End game: Danny blew the deal for Hayward with Indiana. And while Fournier is solid, is using the valuable exception on a two-month rental a smart play by a team going nowhere?

How would the Cs look now if they got one or more of Butler, Green, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Harrell and Siakam? Or by sending Nesmith, Lankford, Hunter, JuJuan and others away in deals for veterans when their value as draft picks is much higher than after being taken? Bottom line: Danny had better get it together because guys get fired for the kind of streak he’s on.

For card-carrying members of Patriot Nation, with Bill Belichick going away from type to blow up the first week of NFL free agency by bringing in 13 new faces, it was quite a week. It was the talk of the league and the biggest sports story of the week. But with the NCAA Basketball Tournament kicking off, the Celtics season collapsing, the Red Sox close to beginning with anonymous faces all over the roster and the Bruins also operating there’s a lot going on. So with that my brain is about to explode if I don’t clear some room by sharing the following today.

At the risk of earning a scolding from my friend Bill (Wright) Clayton, I should admit that what the Bruins are doing is mostly in the dark for me.

Think it’s the pandemic, which has messed with my head by throwing off the regular calendar. I couldn’t get into the Masters in fall, UNH football in the spring, baseball at all and even my usual enthusiasm for the NCAA Tournament, which should be of really high interest with Gonzaga having a chance to have the first undefeated season since Indiana in 1976-77.

Ditto (again) for baseball, but it’s more for Chaim Bloom dismantling the 2018 outfield and a pitching staff that seems to have been recruited from the FBI’s Witness Protection Program. Or maybe I just don’t have the patience to wait out whatever Bloom’s master plan is.

On the plus side, I am curious about current prodigal minor-leaguer son Jarren Duran. Ditto for a full season of Bobby Dalbec. Someone said in the Boston Globe the other day that every time he sees him he thinks of Tony Conigliaro. High praise indeed since he was the second youngest player to reach 100 homers in MLB history.

Sports 101: Who was the youngest player to reach 100 homers?

Hearing Danny Ainge talk about the dumpster fire the season is turning into makes me think he doesn’t get how much trouble the Celtics are in.

I think Brad Stevens has done a very good job overall here, but if going home is appealing I’d say take the Indiana job, because the biggest thing the C’s need is a new voice, one that will come with a large boot to kick them in the tail, because they are too accepting of losses.

If you like to keep track of these things, the now 22-year-old Collin Sexton, whom the Cavaliers took with the lottery pick the Celtics gave them in the Kyrie Irving trade, is averaging 24.2 points per game, and for Terry Rozier, who walked the plank for Kemba Walker, it’s 20. Meanwhile the hobbled and struggling Kemba’s at 17.1 while making $12 million more per year.

Lakers sixth man from the 1980s glory days Michael Cooper gets my vote for the Hall of Fame. With all due respect to Dennis Rodman, Robert Reid and Paul Pressey, nobody gave Larry Bird more trouble. So that and being a real contributor to five titles puts him in for me.

One final word on Coach B’s spending spree: So much for the idea that after the disintegration of the Brady-Belichick relationship players would no longer want to come to Gille tte as free agents.

Don’t know if it was an all-time MLB record, but Johnny Damon allegedly blew a .3 on the breathalyzer a couple of weeks back in Florida. That got him arrested on suspicion of drunk driving, to which he later pleaded not guilty. Danno also booked his wife Michelle on charges of battery on a police officer and resisting arrest with violence, according to news reports. Damon reportedly tried everything to get let off including the old chestnut, “I‘m 200 yards from my house,” and the new chestnut, “I know I‘m being targeted because I support Donald Trump,” all of which probably renews his membership in the Idiots Club for another 10 years.

I know he was a terrific player, but sorry, I don’t get the who-ha over Drew Brees joining NBC. I get the great white whale hunt for Peyton Manning because broadcasting is about insight and personality and he’s got both. Brees may have insight, but so did Joe Montana and he was a disaster because the personality wasn’t there, and I fear Brees’ blandness will lead to a similar outcome.

And in a related note, with Brees retiring, Tom Brady will be the all-time leader in TD passes and passing yards with no one on the horizon for at least 15 years.

Sports 101 Answer: The youngest to reach 100 homers was the forgotten great New York Giant Mel Ott. He got to the majors at 17 in 1926 and reached 100 at 22 helped by going for 42 homers and 151 RBI while batting .328 when he was just 20. With 504 he was the third to reach 500 and the NL leader until Willie Mays passed him in 1965.

I thought I’d heard or read all the Yogisms there were, but I just ran across two new ones. His wife, Carmen, asked him while they were estate planning, “You’re born in St. Louis, you live in New Jersey and you played ball in New York. So if you go before I do, where would you like me to have you buried?” To which Yogi said, “Surprise me.” Then there is when he and Reggie Jackson are watching the names of baseball legends who had died over that year scroll on the scoreboard as they’re read to the Old-Timers Day crowd, when Yogi looks up at Reggie and says, “I hope I never see my name up there for that.”

This is going to sound hypocritical, especially coming from me. But everyone is a critic.

Even for wildly popular things like the recently passed stimulus bill national polls say was supported by 75 percent of the country. Still, the entire GOP voted it down, as the so-called progressives on the other side loudly say it doesn’t go far enough. Economists? They’re whining it will cause inflation. Meanwhile struggling folks everywhere gratefully say thanks.

As honest Abe once said, you can’t please all the people all of the time.

Joining the chorus this week were those who didn’t like (or hated) Bill Belichick bringing back Cam Newton as Patriots’ QB for 2021. After a 7-9 season, when Cam threw an anemic eight TD passes, it’s fair to question the decision. Particularly at first glance, but if you dive deeper into what’s going on as they renovate the roster, there are legit reasons to do it. Though admittedly they carry risk of failure and don’t inspire confidence throughout Patriot Nation.

As you might expect, it caused media blowback as well, where people like Gary Tanguay and Dan Shaughnessy acted like Bill did something personally to them. For Tanguay, it was his usual harangue (on WEEI) about Bill’s “arrogance to not care what we think,” while Big Dan actually said this in the Boston Globe: “As ever, stubborn Bill knows more than we do. And he’s going to show you how smart he is again.” I had to re-read that about 10 times to make sure he actually meant it the way it seemed. He did and thus it’s hard to contemplate how idiotic that statement is.

Trust me, neither of those two is a deep thinker. They’re reactionaries, who are ready, fire, aim guys thanks to being overly emotional (Tanguay) or taking any opportunity to land a blow in a feud with the Kraft family dating back to the Bill Parcells border war departure (Big Dan). It leads to really dumb predictions like saying (I’m paraphrasing) it’s a big mistake that will come back to haunt them, after Coach B traded sulking Randy Moss (over his contract) four games into 2010. It was such a huge mistake they only won 11 of 12 after that to finish 14-2. There’s also the old standby, “they think they’re smarter than everyone else.” Sorry, having the highest NFL winning percentage over 20 years says they are. So why would anyone listen to them?

One person I will listen to is Rodney Harrison, who has no axe to grind and actually knows something about football. He said long ago he didn’t believe Cam could play at a level needed for NFL success any more. Not sure if I agree or disagree. I mean Baltimore won a SB with Trent Dilfer at QB and Cam’s better than him. But I’m OK with the signing if it’s the first move in a two-step process.

Here’s what I think about why he did what he did:

Biggest Need:It’s notjust finding a QB, but finding along-term solution at quarterback. The best way to get that is to draft one and hit on the pick. Most rookies, even ones that play in Year 1, usually learn behind a veteran for up to a full season. Then when ready they take over and the vet becomes the backup. That’s what I think Newton likely is for 2021.

Why Draft One Over Sign One: Two reasons.You’ve got him for five seasons and thus you can shape him into what you want him to be, as Charlie Weis did by starting Tom Brady off with mostly low-risk slants and quick outs to the sideline until Brady showed he could be trusted with more. Second, they get a QB on a low-cost rookie contract (about $5 million) for five years, over spending the $40 million per Dak Prescott will cost Dallas over the same time. That saving can be invested team wide, instead of the salary cap casualties they’ll see in Dallas. The Pats’ first three SB wins had that advantage.

Why Not Jimmy G: At $25 million per the people’s choice is not as onerous as Dak. But that still cuts into their free agent cash in a year they have a major spending advantage over almost every team. A lot of pot holes can be filled during what will be a tight, bargain-filled job market featuring more talent than usual. Here’s the math: After signing Newton and last week’s Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon trades they had $69 million to spend. With a Round 1 trade up to get the QB, $13 million-ish goes to rookie salaries, taking it down to $56 million. It will take around $25 million or so to keep must-signs (Andrews, Guy, Jackson, Jason McCourty and a third down back) to leave $31 million. Twenty-five more for Jimmy G leaves $6 million to sign two wideouts, a tight end, run-stopping d-lineman, edge rusher and a kicker. What will they get for that? Not much, making the question if Brady couldn’t win with his receivers in 2019 what makes anyone think Garoppolo can with a similar bunch they’ll be able to afford for 2021?

Why Cam Newton: Two reasons. He’s a cheap option with a chance for a higher upside. Second, while they could have gone with a Ryan Fitzpatrick, they probably preferred continuity and are betting with a real training camp, better command of the offense and more talent around him he’ll play better in 2021. And when the rook Is ready, he could evolve into a complementary Wildcat QB, who can actually pass and be the strong short-yardage runner on third down and around the goal line he was in 2020. Fitzpatrick can’t do that.

Only time will tell if Cam is the best choice. In the meantime, the media noise brings to mind the Bill Parcells adage, “if you listen to people in the cheap seats, sooner or later you’ll be up there with them.”

At this time last year I said the Patriots were entering an 18-month remodeling period to be up and ready to go again in 2021. Well, that moment has arrived and they’re about to be on the clock with around $65 million to spend over the next few weeks and their best first-round draft position since 2008. They are not bereft of talent, but they do have major holes to fill and other areas to fortify. Given that they have a big question mark at quarterback in a QB-crazed environment and are in the unaccustomed position of not being able to wait for bargains, word on the street is they’re likely to be mucho aggressive in pursuit of what they need.

Here’s a look at what they are faced with and we’ll start with the methods to accomplish their goals.

Strategy Options

The Draft: My attitude about the draft is if it comes down to getting a player who can become a true star or one who fills a glaring hole, go for the star because they’re harder to come by. Plus, as evidenced by the fact that after hitting the bonanza 2010 draft (McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez and Spikes) they’ve added only three players of value each year since, none great, we know it’s a crap shoot. But the draft can be used as ammo in trades for immediate help like in 2007 as well, when Wes Welker and Randy Moss totally transformed the offense by going for 112 catches for 1,175 receiving yards and 98 for a whopping 1,495 yards and an NFL record 23 TD catches respectively after getting them for just second- and fourth-round picks. The only player of consequence taken that year was top pick Brandon Meriweather, but hard to say it wasn’t a great use of that draft.

Trades: The success of the approach in 2007 speaks for itself and when combined with their dire need (and long incompetence) for drafting good wide receivers, I’d suggest they do that via trades for guys who they know can play at this level already.

Free Agency: They’ve got money to spend and real needs, so this is the year to spend big on players, who again they know can play at this level, to refurbish the team.

Biggest Possible Losses

Joe Thuney: Can’t see Coach B paying a franchised tagged guard north of $15 million, so a long-term deal is needed or see ya. Most think he’s way expensive. But by making 60 straight starts over five seasons his durability is very valuable. The emergence of versatile rookie Michael Onwenu provides options, as he could be a cheaper replacement for either Thuney or the returning Marcus Cannon at right tackle.

David Andrews: Whether Thuney stays or goes, retaining the free agent center is crucial as the line fell apart when he missed the entire 2019 season.

Three Biggest Needs

Quarterback: Until this question is answered, they won’t be able to recruit real offensive help in free agency without knowing who’ll be under center. Thus a trade for a vet probably pays the biggest dividends in recruiting receivers. My preference is to draft the right one in Round 1 to find a long-term solution and reap the financial benefits a young QB provides. If that means they also need a one-year caretaker, whether Cam Newton in an evolving role or a Ryan Fitzpatrick type, I’m OK with it.

Wide Receiver: Seeing how ordinary Tom Brady looked in 2019 and how revitalized he was with that deep receiving core in Tampa convinced me I’ve underestimated the value of good receivers. That was reinforced by what Stefon Diggs’ arrival did to the Buffalo offense. With Julian Edelman coming off a significant knee injury at 35 they need two top receivers. I know Jakobi Meyers had 59 catches for 729 yards. But I recall Reche Caldwell led the 2006 team with 61 catches, but only because Brady had to throw it to someone. So, I’m wait and see on whether Jacobi’s 59 fall into the Caldwell category or not. There are some big names out there, like TB’s Chris Godwin, AJ Green and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who I like a lot. They’ll cost big money, but this is the place and time to splurge, like they surprisingly did by going really big for Stephon Gilmore in 2017.

Tight End: If you’re an optimist you’ll say the results from using third-round picks on tight ends last year are a work in progress. If you’re realistic, you’ll say after combining for a pathetic five catches, under no circumstances can tight end be left up to Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Though I’m not with the clamor for the just-released Kyle Rudolph. The once highly productive TE is coming off a 28-catch season preceded by 39 in 2019, which sounds like a guy on the way down. The most expensive option is San Diego, er, L.A.’s Hunter Henry, who’s solid, but I’m not sure they have to have the best. Just someone they can count on.

Secondary Needs

These are holes that can be worked around if the first three are filled, but they still need help.

Defensive Front Seven: Dont’a Hightower will be back and that’s good news. He’ll fortify young’ns Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche, who showed flashes toward the end of 2020. Next would be an inside run stopper and an edge rusher, as I’m not totally sold on New Hampshire loving Chase Winovich. A Kyle Van Noy return might be possible, if the price is right, which makes it not likely.

Secondary: It’s their deepest group, but with the rumor mill saying a trade of Gilmore is likely, they’ll need talent on the back end, as JC Jackson takes over as the No. 1 corner. I’m hoping Gilmore doesn’t go, but with him on the final year of his contract, if it’s for a No. 1, do it.

OK, get to it, Bill.

The start of the new NFL year is two weeks away when free agent signings begin. With $65 million to spend, the Patriots are likely to be very active to retool to get back in the playoff hunt, a task made more difficult these days playing in the vastly improved AFC East, where Buffalo is now the top dog, Miami is a QB away from SB contention and even the Jets, who have their history of incompetence to overcome, are a concern since they have the second overall pick and $73 million in cap room.

Over the next two weeks we’ll look at what they need to do to recover from last year’s 7-9 debacle. First we’ll concern ourselves with the biggest question of the off season — who will the starting quarterback be in 2021? — and the obstacles they’ll face answering that question during an unprecedented off season of turbulence at the quarterback position.

The QB Derby: If Drew Brees retires as expected the new year had as many as 18 teams looking for an upgrade to make the competition for the right QB intense. Sensing that, the Rams struck first by sending their starter Jared Goff and two first-round picks and a third to get Matthew Stafford from Detroit. With Phillip Rivers retired, Indy then took the Carson Wentz headache off Philly’s hands for conditional second- and third-round picks, a big gamble for a talented but trending down hard-to-coach crybaby with a $145 million contract about to kick in. Both moves show how valved quarterbacks are and that desperate teams will vastly overpay to get one.

So with 16 teams left things could get wacky quickly. That sense of urgency will also leak into the draft, where five quarterbacks could be taken in the first 10 picks, worthy or not. In short, the off season will be a game of musical chairs for quarterbacks. Here are the options.

Draft a QB: This option brings the uncertainty of betting on a guy who’s never played in the league and at a very high cost if you trade up to get the right one along with the learning curve that goes with it. However, if you hit, you pay your starter $5 million per for five years instead of $30 million to $40 million, and that savings can be invested elsewhere.

Who to Draft: With the 15th pick, Alabama’s Mac Jones is the best probable for the Pats. I like three things about him. (1) He’s got a quick release. (2) His 77.4 percent completion rate for 41 TD passes says he’s accurate. (3) He makes good, quick decisions, evidenced by throwing just four picks. The X-factor: How much are his gaudy numbers due to the spectacular first-round talent around him? Though I’m confident saying this: Jones is a lot better than his Bama predecessor Tua Tagovailoa.

Likely Out of Their Reach: The top two on the market are Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson, who want out of Houston and Seattle. Both are better than Stafford and make big money, so they’ll wipe out the Patriots’ next three drafts and a large chunk of their salary cap space to prevent the haul most are hoping for. Since he’s 26 I might do it for Watson, but no one else.

Aaron Rodgers: Doesn’t seem likely he’ll move for a million reasons. But with GB drafting a QB last year, stranger things have happened. But even if he leaves it’ll likely be west for a team ready to win, like SF, which would put Jimmy Garoppolo in play.

Jimmy G: The consensus pick in the cheap seats. Pros: He knows the system, Bill knows what he can do and he took the Niners to the Super Bowl just two years ago. Con: He’s injury prone, a big negative.

Dak Prescott: I’m not a Dak guy. First because everything from their QB’s to the dance team is overrated in Dallas. Second, he’s a game manager who wants $40 million per. Are you kidding me? Finally, it would break my friend George Copadis’ heart to see his beloved Cowboys let their latest vastly overrated star leave Jerry’s house.

Matt Ryan:At best he’s a short-term solution, so they’d still have to draft a QB. Plus salary cap implications in Atlanta will probably prevent him from leaving. So forget about him.

Marcus Mariota:Pro: He flourished in Chip Kelly’s system at Oregon. So maybe that’s what he is, a system QB in search of the right system. Con: He flunked out in Tennessee, who got immediately better after he was replaced by Dolphins flunk-out Ryan Tannehill.

Sam Darnold: Tannehill got better once he got away from Adam Gase in Miami. Could that be the same for Darnold? Nope. He’s just the latest — Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley — overrated QB to come out of USC.

Jameis Winston: He’s got talent, but he threw 30 picks with Tampa Bay in 2019 and we know how much Coach B hates turnovers. But he also threw for 5,000 yards and 31 TD passes that year. He’s a long shot, but turning him into the productively efficient QB he wasn’t under Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay would give a new apples-and-apples dynamic to the “Was it Tom or Bill?” debate.

Cam Newton: Most don’t want this to happen. But Coach B may not be one of them. The question is, how much did joining the team late amid the Covid-hampered training environment play into his issues and did he suffer from lack of weapons as Brady did in 2019? I think it’s 50-50 he’s back,

Preferences: (1) Keep Newton and draft a QB, where Cam eventually evolves into a wildcat, short yardage and goal line scoring option. (2) If you go new, take the system guy, Mariota. Though if Coach B finds a way to somehow make a Jimmy G deal to include soon to be free agent tight end George Kittle, do it.

Following their latest loss, where they blew a 20-plus-point lead again, the 15-15 Celtics are straddling a line between their season becoming a huge disappointment and a total catastrophe. A wild overstatement? Maybe, but we’re now five weeks into a stretch of 11 losses in 19 games and it’s not like it’s been an incredibly rough stretch in the schedule. It started with a horrid mail-it-in 105-75 loss to the Knicks, which was followed by losses to bottom-dwellers Detroit, Washington, Sacramento, Atlanta and New Orleans on Sunday. So it’s beyond being just a funk. Shockingly it leaves them just a half game ahead of the surprising Knicks, and I’m pretty sure “catastrophe”would be the No. 1 answer if this were an episode of Family Feud and a family of green-teamers were asked what one word would best sum up finishing behind the Knickerbockers this year.

Now I’m more into fixing things than second guessing, so here’s a look at the issues and some suggestions for fixing the problem.

The Team Is Playing Dead: They have no emotion. Especially with Marcus Smart out. All teams need a guy who gets in people’s faces when they don’t play hard, they make dumb mistakes or they just don’t care enough about winning and losing. Some do it by scaring guys like MJ or KG, some with a stern leadership demeanor like LBJ. Others are just a pain in the butt like Draymond Green. But however it’s done every team needs it and they don’t have a guy like that.

Brad Stevens: I’m not a blame-the-coach-for-everything kind of guy. But I admit I have Brad fatigue for two reasons.

They Reflect His Placid Demeanor: Some coaches are suited for one kind of situation and not for others, like Bill Fitch with the Celtics in the ’80s. His drill sergeant approach was perfect for the young team Larry Bird joined as a rookie, which needed to learn how to win. But his shrill, never satisfied voice was eventually tuned out when those lessons were learned. In came the “treat them like they know what they’re doing” KC Jones and the guys responded by winning two titles. That may be the case here in reverse. This passive group needs a guy to drive them because they’re too comfortable with losses.

He’s Too In Love With The 3-Ball:It’s why they blow so many big leads. Once the 3’s stop falling, they have few other options to look for help as the big leads melt away, as happened on Sunday.

Jayson Tatum: I know how talented he is and he’s a good kid who puts in the work to improve. But I want more. I know it’s not his way, but the best player has got to develop a what-the-blank-are-you-doing way when needed, and until he does he’s not a Top 10 player or the leader they need.

The 3-Ball Doesn’t Always Fall: I know it’s a 3-ball league and what the math says about taking 3’s over 2’s. But sorry, anyone who has ever played knows that sometimes long-distance shots hit dry spells. Thus teams also need scoring down low, where the percentage is higher and you get foul shots. You rarely get the latter on 3-balls unless you have a dope covering you. Case in point was Sunday, when after being down 21, instead of the Pelicans chucking up more 3’s, they posted up 280-pound Zion Williamson or gave it to him at the foul line for drives, where he just overpowered everyone, leading to easy buckets and trips to the line for old-time three-point plays. That and the sudden appearance of defense was why they turned that game around. Having a really dependable block scorer, like, I don’t know, Joel Embiid also forces weakside defenders to double team them, which gives shooters more time/room to launch.

C’s Needs Restructuring:I don’t know what Brian Scalabrine is smoking, but the biggest need is not another scoring wing like Harrison Barnes. It’s changing the formula from wing scoring dominance to one that complements the 3-ball with reliable scoring from the block.As much as I love the grit of Daniel Theis, that’s not him. So a trade is needed. But if they want to wait a bit, give Robert Williams 30 minutes a game to see if he can do some of that.

The General Manager: Earth to Danny, what are you waiting for? Stop trying to get a steal every time you make a trade like in the Gordon Hayward-for-Myles Turner fiasco. I’m not in love with Turner, but taking only him in that deal instead of holding out for more would have filled the need to get bigger up front and provided a stretch four who blocks shots too. He also could have been flipped later for a better fit. Rome is burning. Stop fiddling (and diddling) and get what is needed.

The Bench Needs Scoring:Short term, I’d swap Payton Pritchard and Kemba, to give the second unit a much-needed dynamic scorer. However, any major deal will likely need Kemba as the bait to make that happen, so it must give the C’s a proven bench scorer back, like Orlando’s Terrence Ross.

Top Trade Target: I wanted Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic as the free agent replacement the summer Al Horford and Kyrie Irving defected. The problem is that he’s blossomed into a 24 and 11 guy so he’ll cost a lot more. Why would Orlando move him? Maybe after falling out of it again they’ll want to build around their younger players and know his trade value will never be higher. He’ll cost future picks, recent top picks and likely the Time Lord, unless Kemba goes to a third team needing a veteran presence with a lot of draft capital to send their way like New Orleans.