Author: Dave Long

The abbreviated version of the 2020 baseball season kicks off next week when the Sox and Orioles go at it at Fenway. It’s safe to say we go into this season with the lowest expectations in a long time, for various reasons, which include a lackluster 2019, stat geek Chaim Bloom being hired as GM after a career bargain-hunting with Tampa Bay, Alex Cora’sfiring, the ceaseless cost-cutting chatter leading to the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price,and Chris Sale’s season-ending surgery, all of which were blocked out by the sun of the worldwide pandemic.

As a result, the Sox have many question marks and a few real strengths that are being overlooked by the Nation. He’s a summary.

Injury Update: Camp got off to a rousing start with four guys testing for the virus. If you missed it they were minor-league power hitter Bobby Dalbec, expected bullpen key Darwinzon Hernandez, fringe reliever Josh Taylor and projected opening day starter Eduardo Rodriguez. That leaves a giant void right off the bat, as E-Rod missing just two weeks in the short season is like missing the first 40 of a 162-game season.

Biggest Question Mark – The Rotation: As Butch said to Sundance when they couldn’t shake the posse after them in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are those guys?” That’s how I feel about a rotation, ah, headlined to start by Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and others I’ve never heard of. So my answer to Butch would be “beats me.” Second: At any time in his Red Sox tenure, even right after his marathon relief stint in Game 4 of the 2018 series, did anyone ever see Eovaldi as the ace of the staff? Well, he will be if E-Rod can’t get it back in gear very quickly. We know the potential, but given his injury history that’s not a comforting thought.

Next Question – What’s the Story at Second Base:With the Dustin Pedroia retirement party on the horizon here’s where Chaim’s bargain-hunting comes in. So I’ve got no clue what they have here, especially with Michael Chavis likely earmarked for a 1B, DH, IF utility role.

Biggest Strength – The Hitting: Talk all you want about the loss of Betts, he was only their fourth best hitter a year ago. Xander Bogaerts (.309-33-117), Rafael Devers (.312-32-115) and JD Martinez (.304-36-105) all out-hit Mookie (.295-29-80) in average, homers and RBI, and with 54 and 52 respectively, the first two had had more doubles than Mookie’s 40 too. Andrew Benintendi can take up some of the slack from the loss of Betts if he can re-find his consistency. Bottom line: Even if the 26-double, 23-homer 2019 stat line was the career year for Christian Vazquez they’ll have more than enough hitting to win.

Who’s Hot: It’s hard to tell with anyone, but Eovaldi throwing four scoreless innings in his first outing while allowing just one hit and a walk and striking out four was encouraging. Especially since 34 of his 58 pitches were strikes, the command was good. The 58 pitches indicates he’ll be at 75 on opening day if he makes it that far.

Most Anxious to See – Alex Verdugo: He’s the most ready for prime time prospect they got for Betts. In his first full season he hit .294 with 22 doubles, 12 homers and 44 RBI in 104 games. Projected over a 162-game season that’s 33 doubles, 18 homers and 67 RBI which is comparable to what Betts did — 42 doubles, 18 homers, 77 RBI and .291 — in his first season in Boston. Not saying he’ll be Mookie, but I’m interested to see if the trend goes up. And the pandemic shutdown helped by giving the stress fracture in his back extra time to heal.

What to Make of the 60-Game Schedule: For a team that can’t win it in a 162-game season because the pitching won’t hold up, it’s a good thing. And who knows, if the hot streak everyone eventually gets comes in the first month they’ll stay in it most of the way. It had better too, because if a team starts really hot, you won’t have time to catch up like you can over the marathon of a 162-game season.

Perfect for Chaim Bloom: Given the tradition-laden-ness and IQ of the fan base, the guess is some of the GM’s New Age, Ivy League ideas would get pushback over 162. But in a low-expectation 60-game season he’ll get room to experiment. Like using openers for both the fifth and fourth spots in the rotation where the more programmed strategy lets you set up match-ups more easily to keep their weaknesses at a minimum. And if it works it’ll show what I’ve been saying for a while now, that the cost per out/inning goes way down with this approach over paying big money to mediocre fourth and fifth starters. That lets a team concentrate big money in starters 1 through 3, and with injury questions surrounding Sale and Evoladi after heavy investments in them that’s important with E-Rod in his walk year.

The Ron Roenicke Question:I don’t know much about Roenicke beyond that he got to learn from Earl Weaver playing for him in Baltimore and had a stint of four years and change as manager of the Brewers between 2011 and 2015. That started by winning 96 games in Year 1 and went downhill after that leading to his being fired with a pedestrian 342-331 career record. He fits comfortably into the “baseball lifer” category. Which means a guy who gets a shot or two to manage but ultimately winds up a bench coach and the one who takes over when a manager gets fired. That suggests he’s keeping the seat warm for Cora, which is OK with me after Cora pays the penalty for the transgressions in Houston.

Finally, there is real on-field news to talk about. The Red Sox opened summer camp last week, the Celtics opened theirs earlier this week and, praise the lord, the Tom Brady saga is not the only thing people are talking about when it comes to football.

Well, that’s sorta the case today regarding the latter. But after having a week to think about it I’m back to talk about who’ll be playing QB for the Patriots in 2020, not who’s not. Thus, we’ll leave the Sox, Celtics and Bruins for next time, to fill in some of the blanks on last week’s Cam Newton signing.

The Snap Judgment: I’m always a skeptic and rarely let my imagination run away on big stories of this type. If you do, the first thing that comes to the mind is the MVP season of 2015 and he hasn’t been that guy since, um, 2015. So the first reaction was they’ve improved the backup QB spot and added a big name to challenge Jarrett Stidham for what comes next at quarterback. However, as I’ve thought about it, I’m warming to his potential upside. The caveat being he’s over his recent shoulder and foot woes.

Primarily because a high-level Cam means we’ll be seeing a different type of QB play than we’ve had for over 30 years (with Drew Bledsoe figured in). As great as Brady was, there have been times I’ve thought how nice it would be to have a QB who could get yards on his own with a run/pass option near the goal line and on third and short, or be able to turn a sure sack into chicken salad with his legs.

As the mind wanders, here are some observations on Newton.

Things to Know about Cam Newton: While Brady routinely has thrown for 4,000-plus yards, 11 times overall and only missed doing it in the Deflategate-shortened 12-game 2016 season during the last nine seasons, Newton has only done it once, as a rookie in 2011.

On the flip side, while I’m surprised Brady has run for as much as 100 (barely) three times, in the last eight seasons his combined rushing total is just 321. Newton has topped every season of his career except last year when he played just two games.

Having said that, the flip side of the flip side is that most running QB’s get beat up or worse as a season goes along. But in missing only five games in eight years before last year, Newton’s durability is better than I thought. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been the dreaded “game time decision” quite a few times. I don’t recall Brady ever being one of those and that adds uncertainty in a way Brady never did.

Then there’s the accuracy thing. Newton has completed just 59.6 percent of his career passes and been over 60 percent just three times, though the best, 67.5 percent, was in 2018. In 19 seasons Brady has never not been over 60 percent, though he barely did that (60.8 percent) in 2019.

The accuracy difference also shows itself in interceptions, where Brady has thrown for double digits just three times (11 twice and 12) since Newton entered the league in 2011. Cam has never had a non-double-digit pick season with a high of 17 in 2011 and low of 10 when he was MVP in 2015 when he also had his only 30-plus-TD-pass (35) season. Brady has seven 30-plus seasons.

Looking Ahead to 2020: When I hear “mercurial personality” I think Kyrie Irving or Jose Canseco and that’s not good. But my measuring stick actually is a guy I didn’t like, Deion Sanders, because I really hate “hey, look at me, me, me” types. But the rule of thumb is what do you hear about a player coming out of the locker room or after they leave town. In Deion’s case you never heard detractors, so I figured he must have been a good guy. That appears to be the case with Newton as well.

I’ve been harshly critical of Odell Beckham’s commitment to winning over the years, so persistent rumors of Cam’s workout buddy coming to New England got my attention. I wasn’t for Antonio Brown because he’s nuts. For OBJ it seems more maturity issues similar to pre-Foxboro Randy Moss, who worked out great here. At least for a while. So, in a rare about-face, I’m interested, as he’ll certainly help the weapons deficiency. That leaves three questions. Would Cleveland let him go? What would they want back? What would you give up to get him? Oh, plus he’s pricey and they’re up against the cap, so who are you willing to let go?

Passing yards and picks can be a reflection of throwing down field more than the Pats do, as well as not having the great slot guys and third down backs Brady always had. It’ll be interesting to see if the system, play calling and superior coaching can negate Newton’s negatives.

Bottom Line: What the “should have kept Brady” crowd needs to understand is that while TB-12 is the GOAT, he wasn’t that guy last year. He was middle of the pack, with just two vintage Brady games, Pittsburgh in the opener and the second Buffalo game. History tells us he likely won’t be as good at 43 as at 42. Not a Willie Mays on the warning track 43, but not an improvement over 2018. The stats may go up because of his new weapons, but that’s irrelevant to what would have happened here with Patriots personnel. Thus with the team likely transitioning to a more conservative, run-dominated, defense-oriented game to accommodate its talent, Newton’s game may be a better fit than the 2020 version of Brady. So I’d say the likelihood is better than 50-50 that with a healthy Newton the play at QB improves over 2019.

Though that could just be my imagination running away with me.

The major sports leagues went about their business last week planning to open their respective seasons. In baseball, basketball and hockey it will be with no fans, with the latter two doing it from one site to reduce exposure to infection to the coronavirus. In football, despite last week’s warning from Dr. Anthony Fauci that we’re not done with the virus and with a second wave likely it’s risky, they’re still planning on games with fans socially distanced.
As usual, those who either don’t like that news or live in fantasy land pushed back on Fauci. Like Boston Globe NFL reporter Ben Volin with a column last week citing several other medical experts who say it can work. He also laid out the extensive plans NFL teams have for creating safe havens at their facilities through social distancing and the like.
I’m no expert, but sorry, I’m not buying it. Somebody explain to me how they can social distance in the huddle. Ditto on the line of scrimmage and while tackling someone about 80 times a game. How about on quarterback sneaks for that big first down that leave 12 people lying on top of each other for a minute or so as they untangle? TD celebrations? Yeah, that can be discouraged or even penalized. Though given that roughly 20 percent of the people I see walking around the grocery store are either clueless or of the “I’m more important than anyone else” types without masks, I don’t think that will take for all.
Throw in everyone on the field perspiring all through the game and violent exhales from ball carriers after getting drilled unexpectedly by a 260-pound guy running at full speed, and the physics just don’t add up. Or is it the chemistry? Or is it the biology? Or maybe it’s all three. As you can see, science was never a strong suit, so that’s why I listen to Fauci on these issues, particularly for what we should do in the grocery store if you get my drift. But I digress.
Then there was the news last week that five Philadelphia Phillies and someone from the Blue Jays tested positive before their teams even officially gathered at their ultra-sanitized facilities to begin pre-season. Both have been shut down indefinitely. That does not portend a smooth start, and baseball is the sport that most easily translates to adopting a social distancing program.
What happens if an NFL team gets hit with a mass of positive tests at one time? Like the six Cowboys who tested positive last week. Can just see it now — NEWS FLASH: Dak Prescott, star runner Ezekiel Elliott (again) and all five starting offensive linemen are among 10 Dallas Cowboys to test positive today and they’re now on 14-day quarantine. How do you replace 10 guys on offense at once when that’s added to the usual three or four normally out every week in a sport where injuries ravage lineups as the season progresses? Especially if among the 10 are also their two other QB’s. Then what? To survive all that they’ll need 80 players on the roster.
Since all their pitchers sit together in the bullpen or dugout it could be the same in baseball. As John Madden used to say — BOOM, there goes the pitching. How are you going run a team with 80 percent of the pitchers gone?
Hockey? What would have happened to the 1970 Bruins if both Gerry Cheevers and Eddie Johnston went down together? Especially after they somehow had let future Vezina Trophy and multiple Stanley Cup winning goalies Bernie Parent and Ken Dryden get away to Philadelphia and Montreal respectively. As an aside, since that was right around the time I checked out on hockey, that’s about as recent an example as I can come up with. Basketball can probably survive the best, because it needs fewer players and there are a million of them around. But it still raises the question of what the product is actually going to be like.
Of course this isn’t the first time sports has had to deal with a possible dire talent drain. With almost every able-bodied man drafted into the Army, baseball was so stretched during World War II that one-armed outfielder Pete Gray played 77 games for the St. Louis Browns in 1945. That he was able to bat .218 with just one arm is remarkable. Though since lefty hurler Jim Abbott is the only player since to make the majors with that disability it does speak to the shortage of available players during the war.
After Pearl Harbor, Commissioner Landis asked President Roosevelt if baseball should be shut down. To which FDR said no, it was important for the nation’s morale to keep playing, and they then did the best they could with the likes of Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and most everyone else off to war. Of course they weren’t charging $200 a ticket to watch that product in a risky health environment.
Mixed in to all this is the need to restart the economy, which is a very important factor in everyday life. Whether sports fits into the “need” category is up for debate. But not to the folks whose livelihood depends on sports going forward or who have huge investments on the line with the teams. Fortunately, we can watch it all on TV. That brings the risk down to the players, coaches and all the others those involved in playing and broadcasting. And their participation is up to them, as it should be.
Will it work without stopping midway through? The Reggie Lewis case from many moons ago taught us it’s better to go with the pack of docs who agree against the one in dissent. But those docs were on the side of caution for Reggie, which is what Dr Fauci is pushing. I’m with him, because I don’t see it working.
Hopefully, I’ll be wrong.
Email Dave Long at [email protected].