Here’s our annual look at what lies ahead for the Patriots as they begin the quest for another Super Bowl title on longer odds than they’ve had in quite a while.
2020 Schedule: With all the division games likely to be tougher and Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson on the docket, along with 2019 top pick Kyler Murray and Jimmy G, it’s challenging. Though a Jimmy G-vs.-Tom game would have been fun.
Coronavirus Defections: With a league-leading nine guys including key cogs Dont’a Hightower, Pat Chung and Marcus Cannon they got hit hard.
Secondary: Everyone is back from the league’s best secondary but Chung and the traded Duron Harmon, for whom untested but versatile 2019 No. 2 pick Joejuan Williams will step in. But with versatility, depth and having the NFL’s best corner, Stephon Gilmore, it should be a major strength again.
The O-Line: With anchor Dave Andrews back at center, Shaq Mason healthy and after finally seeing what Isaiah Wynn can do, this looked to be a real strength after being such a disaster much of last year. But with Cannon opting out there’s a question at right tackle with no obvious answer. Jermaine Eluemunor has the inside track, but he played just 29 snaps last year, so it bears watching.
Running Back: On paper there’s depth with the most reliable being outstanding third down back James White. But there are issues. Sony Michel is wildly up and down, Rex Burkhead is brittle, I wonder why Damien Harris never played last year and free agent Lamar Miller had success in Houston but is coming off ACL surgery. Plus, I don’t see a goal line and short yardage back, do you?
Linebacker: Their top four linebackers — Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Jamie Collins — are gone and, sorry, that’s a bigger loss than the 2019 version of Brady. And I just don’t see their production being replaced by Ja’Whaun Bentley, two high draft picks and a bunch of who-the-heck-are-they free agents. Chase Winovich had his 2019 moments, but until I see more consistency, he’s just a guy with Mark Gastineau-esque “hey, look at me” gyrations after he occasionally does something good.
Receivers: Beyond Julian Edelman who knows what they’ll get here and at 34 I’m expecting a tick down from him. Mohamed Sanu? N’Keal Harry? Jakobi Meyers? The rookie tight ends? Two had better emerge or they’ve got big problems. OK, cross off Sanu, who got cut already after giving up a second pick for him.
The Draft: They need players to contribute from both the 2020 and 2019 draft classes. But with just five guys left from the three before that, I’m not filled with confidence.
Kicking Game: They’ve had two kickers in 24 years. Will rookie Justin Rohrwasser make it three in 36? Or will he lose out to the capable Nick Folk to break the string?
X-Factor – Cam Newton: Not sure what he’s going to be. But I do know if they want to make the playoffs he’s got to be good because the O must carry a bigger part of the load this year than last year.
AFC East: For 20 years the Pats have mostly had a giant edge in coaching during division play. But that’s not likely the case vs. Sean McDermott and Brian Flores in Buffalo and Miami at least. So with that gap smaller and all three teams dramatically improved in the second half last year, I expect a more tense race than usual with everyone bunched between 11-5 and 8-8.
Prediction – Because he’s reduced his TO’s considerably and can make enough plays to win with their defense I’m a believer in Buffalo QB Josh Allen. SoI’m picking Buffalo to win the East followed by NE, Miami and NY.
Departure of You Know Who: Thanks for the memories, but based on what he did just last year the bar is not set all that high for his replacement.
Bill Belichick: The real “was it Tom or Bill?” battle begins, where I suspect, with his rep in doubt to a degree, we’ll be reminded of just how much more impact a good coach in football has over the top guys in other sports.