After the 2019 season I said the Patriots were about to undergo an 18-month renovation. The Brady-Belichick divorce was happening to bring a major change at QB, and with them up against the cap, they couldn’t replace the larger than normal number of guys about to leave in free agency until the winter of 2020, when they had a boatload of cap room.
Well, that turned out to be right on the, er, money. While I’m not sure the house is totally finished, the remodeling is mostly done and on Sunday vs. Miami we’ll begin seeing how good the re-done team is.
The Big Story: With the surprising release of Cam Newton, Mac Jones is now the biggest story and ready or not it’s his job now. Having said that, while he played better than Camin pre-season I think the main reason he got the job is because he does what they want in a QB better than Cam — quick decisions, quick release and accurate. Thus, as I said a couple of weeks ago, this is going to be the dink and dunk Brady 2.0 to play ball control on O with the D being the biggest part of the equation to start. Said another way, if this year were a movie it would be Back to the Future 2001.
Strengths
Offensive line: Ultra-durable Joe Thuney has moved on and while that’s is a big loss, second man Michael Owenu slid over from tackle to his spot with little apparent change. So with guards who can play tackle, and two tackles who can play guard, the line is versatile, good in the passing game, outstanding in the run game and big. All are important, because with a rookie QB the run game and play action passing that comes with it is vital because that controls the clock and buys Jones more time to throw. How this group does is a big key to how the season goes.
Running backs: I’m on record for being against the Sony Michel trade because it drained their depth. Having said that, the situational benefits offered by the combination of short yardage/goal line power of Rhamondre Stevenson and explosiveness of J. J. Taylor made Michel the odd man out. Plus there’s the reliable James White with a clearer head in the third down back role. Now, if lead back Damian Harris can stay healthier than his first two seasons, when he’s missed 16 games, they have something. But if he can’t, you’ll see why I would have kept Sony over special teamer/RB Brandon Bolden.
Linebackers: Keeping nine LB’s shows this is the deepest and more versatile part of the team. Some want to include the line here to say it’s the front seven, but I’m wait and see on them. Kyle Van Noy, Josh Uche, Chase Winovich and newcomer Matthew Judon give them four quality edge rushers, while Van Noy and Judon will help the returning Dont’a Hightower and Ja’Whaun Bentley fortify the run D.
Weaknesses
Wide receivers: Aside from Jakobi Meyers no one, especially speedy newcomer Nelson Agholor, did anything to dispel fears they could again be a weakness. So beyond the evolving Meyer they’re totally wait and see.
Injury concerns: Durability is important and while I like the new tight ends, both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have injury histories, as do Isaiah Wynn, Trent Brown and Damian Harris. There are also the concerns expressed last week about whether the slightly built rookie QB can last amid NFL pounding for 17 games. So there is a hold your breath quality for some key parts of the team.
Backup QB: Given what I just said, with Cam gone they have a big hole behind Jones until either Jarrett Stidham makes it back from the PUP list sooner than later, or they trade for someone like Nick Foles because Brian Hoyer isn’t up to it.
Kicker: Speaking of hold your breath issues, how about keeping the big-legged but inconsistent Quinn Nordin, who made just 72 percent of his FG attempts in college? Especially when Nick Folk made his last 26 kicks a year ago, including two game-winners as time ran out. So his course seems like a risk.
Stephon Gilmore: Seven months seem like an awfully long time for a quad not to heal; his absence feels a lot more like a holdout than injury. Which makes the six weeks he’ll miss a test to see how they play without him during the softest part of their schedule and how JC Jackson stands up as the number corner. Both are up for contracts next year and only one at most will be re-signed. So my guess is if Jackson does well, Gilmore could be traded by the time he’s ready to come off the PUP.
Other stuff
The Division: It’s much tougher now because they’re competing against good coaches in Sean McDermott and Brian Flores as opposed to the band of doofuses Coach B mostly faced for 20 years. With Josh Allen at QB Buffalo is a SB contender and Miami likely takes another step up, thus the division is much tougher now, Meanwhile, the Jets should be better, but they’re not ready yet.
Outlook: It’s harder to predict than in the good old days when you start with 12-4 and subtract, or more likely add, a win or two. They start with the softest part of the schedule with four home games (including vs. you know who) and have the Jets and quarterback-less Houston on the road. So it could be a 5-1 start. Tougher over the next 11, but they do get the Browns and Titans at home, along with the Jets, Falcons and Jags — so there’s five more wins. Then the battle for the AFC East plays out in December when they face Buffalo twice and Miami, where they win one of those three.
Prediction: 11-5 and a wild card berth.