Category: Sports

With six no-hitters already, the Mets’ Jacob DeGrom off to a historic start before going on the DL, Shohei Ohtani beautifully pulling off the pitcher-DH thing with 14 homers and a 2.37 ERA, and the surprising Giants, Red Sox and White Sox around the top of their divisions all year, baseball 2021 is off to an interesting start. But, as is usually the case for the sport that outsmarts itself more than all the others combined, it got its panties in a bunch over a story that takes away from all the good news.

That would be in Chicago, where with a few notable exceptions like 1959 and the Frank Thomas era, the White Sox have largely been a joke since throwing the 1919 World Series. So it makes sense that instead of just enjoying having baseball’s best record, the big story in Chi-Town was their 76-year-old manager calling his 28-year-old rookie catcher Yermin Mercedes “clueless” for hitting an eighth-inning homer with his team up double digits because it came on a 3-0 count. It immediately sparked an old-school vs. new-school debate that said after not managing for nine years Tony La Russa was out of touch with modern players who are not wedded to baseball’s ancient code of conduct.

I am no fan of La Russa, whose La Russification of managing pitching put baseball on the path to the endless game of today. But he is right about one thing. Mercedes was given the take sign and he either missed it or, worse, ignored it, which does make him clueless. On the other hand, his sportsmanship argument is stupid for two reasons. First, while they are rare, 13-run innings have happened, so follow Yogi Berra’s advice – because “it ain’t over till it’s over.” Second, Yermin didn’t put a 45-mile-an-hour non-pitching stiff into the game. That was Twins manager Rocco (head) Baldelli so as to not waste real pitchers in a lost cause. So, Rocco, your fault, because you reap what you sow. Then by having his pitcher throw behind Yermin’s head the next day as payback he’s the real villain because that leads to more beanballs, fights and maybe serious injury or worse. So boo Rocco.

In the meantime, as we wait for the real clueless people in Chicago to focus on what actually matters, here are a few other thoughts on baseball’s start.

Baseball 101: Yankees players have won the MVP award two times, but it was done only once by a pitcher. Name him.

Mentioned last week how good Matt Barnes has been so far, but how about Aroldis Chapman? As of Monday morning, the Yankees closer had 37 strikeouts in just 19 innings with an ERA of 0.47.

If you missed it, by hitting .335 with 13 bombs and 35 RBI F-Cat alum Vlad Guerrero Jr. is tearing it up in Toronto. With nine homers and 27 RBI, his Manchester teammate Bo Bichette is not far behind.

Alex Verdugo vs. Mookie Betts Update:While the Mookster is up one World Series win to none, the trade of Betts to L.A. was always a long-term move for the Sox and at the moment you’ve got to like the progress. Here’s what it looks like in Year 2, with Verdugo’s numbers listed first. Avg .297-.258. R 30-25. Doubles 8-15, Triples 1-0, HR 6-5 and RBI 20-16. Paycheck $450,000-$22 million (2021) and $400 million until 2032.

David Price, incidentally, hasbecome a very pricey bullpen pitcher. He’s made just one start in 10 appearances and that was as a two-inning opener on May 20. After opting out last year the start was rocky, but the ERA is down to 3.95.

That was quite a messy ending to the Albert Pujols era with the Angels, who said they had no room to play him. Of course then Mike Trout goes down for two months after he joined the Dodgers.

The question after that news was, is he the best first baseman ever? Well, he’s fifth all-time in total bases (5,963) and homers (668), third best RBI (2,117), which dwarves competitors like Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx, so it’s hard to say no. But it’s been so long since he was the astonishing hitter he was in St. Louis, it’s hard to wrap my head around saying yes too.

Here is my “only I would care about it” weird old-time baseball stat of day. The all-time winning percentage leader (100 wins or more) is the 1930s-40s Yankee Spud Chandler at 71.1 percent. What’s weird is he did it only after getting to the majors at 29, because he was just 46-53 the previous five years in the minors!

Sports 101 Answer: Good old Spud is also our answer. He was MVP in 1943 when he was 20-3 with an ERA of 1.64, the lowest of anyone between 1920 and 1967.

Stumbled on that after being asked if Jon Lester will be a Hall of Famer. He’s 37 and has 191 wins, so if he can hang on until 40 while averaging 12 wins per, he’ll be close to 230 wins with a terrific 62.9 winning percentage. That’s more than Curt Schilling (216) without the baggage. But unlike Clayton Kershaw (a lock), who has a truckload, he’s got no big awards. Plus, the not in so far Andy Pettitte has 256 wins and a record 19 postseason victories. So probably not, but he’ll get votes from the stat geeks, er, newer voting members with less traditional reasons for saying yes.

Two other interesting stats found during the search. (1) At 69.6 Kershaw’ is now on target to pass Whitey Ford for the highest winning percentage of anyone with 200 wins, though he is still 19 short. (2) Lester’s winning percentage for the Red Sox and Cubs was an identical 63.6 percent.

One of these days, I’ve got to start paying closer attention to the NL again.

After a year of being a team no one wanted to own, the surprising 2021 Red Sox are back to my introducing them to one and all as being your Boston Red Sox. A team with a solid core, getting surprising production from retread newcomers like Garrett Richards or never-was-until-now guys like the 5-0 Nick Pivetta.

That makes them a classic case of “is the glass half empty or half full?” One hand, they lead the AL East by 1.5 games after entering 2021 with no expectations whatsoever from me. It has me wondering what I missed. On the other hand, while they do have an outstanding middle of the order, they appear to have (big) holes in the everyday lineup and throughout the pitching staff. That makes me wonder if they can keep it up, especially as they face a mostly tougher part of their schedule over the next six weeks.

Good Signs

Alex Cora: Outside of his maddening caution with his pitchers, one of baseball’s best managers is back in their dugout. That’ll be tested, because unless reinforcements arrive he’ll have to creatively mix and match all year to cover up the obvious holes they have.

Middle of the Order: With his in-game video review security blanket restored, J.D. Martinez is back to normal. So with him, Raffy Devers and Xander Bogaerts all on a pace for 35 homers and to knock in over 100, the lineup’s 3-4-5 can mash with anyone. It’s the strongest part of the team that will be extended on either side if/when Alex Verdugo and Christian Vazquez contribute as consistently as a year ago.

Eduardo Rodriguez: While the 4.15 ERA is higher than you’d like, the more important 5-1 record shows he’s come through missing 2020 with Covid-19-related heart issues OK. Major good news.

Matt Barnes: I’m nominating whoever’s behind getting/forcing him to attack from the first pitch for a Nobel Prize because he’s been outstanding. After watching him nibble himself through one seven-pitch at-bat after another, I usually was infuriated every time he pitched. But no more, as outings like his 12-pitch, three-strikeout save vs. Detroit on May 5, or Friday’s 11-pitch, 10-strike, 3-K save vs. the Angels, have become the norm. Even when Shohei Ohtani clipped him for a game-winning homer on Sunday, it came on a 1-2 pitch with two outs after only getting up because of a botched play in the field.

Things to Keep an Eye On

The Starters: Sorry, I don’t trust it yet behind E-Rod. While healthy so far, Nate Eovaldi has won double digits once in his 10-year career and that was six years ago. Richards is8-12 since 2016 and while Pivetta has been terrific, Philly gave up on his promise after he was 19-30 there. So I need a larger sample size from him.

The Bullpen: Beyond Barnes, it’s “who knows?” as according to Boston Globe stat geek scribe Alex Speier their six bullpen losses and five blown saves lead MLB for May. So I don’t trust anyone, especially eighth-inning setup guy Adam Ottavino, who looks like Nolan Ryan for three pitches and a human blow torch the next five.

Outside the Core: I like the bench’s defensive versatility, but all of them beyond short-timer Michael Chavis are hitting in the low .200s. They need to be far better, or Chaim needs to get people who can be.

Questions to Answer

Chris Sale: They’ve put no timetable on his return. A good thing because it allows no media pressure for a return by a certain date. He’ll be ready when he’s ready. And since no one knows what he will or can deliver when that day arrives, it’s better to consider anything he gives them as a bonus.

Bobby Dalbec and Hunter Renfroe:While they’re hit-or-miss guys at the moment the big “what if” for them is can they find the consistency that would give the Sox five guys with 30-homer potential. Renfro already hit 33 for San Diego in 2019 and Dalbec had a rare for the low minors 32-homer season at (mostly) AA in 2018. So it’s not that far-fetched.

Biggest Questions to be Answered

Nick Pivetta:By starting off 7-0 here since late last year, has the lightbulb finally gone on for the talented, once promising righty? Or is his terrific start a highly visible early season hot streak that ends with the clock striking 12 at some point?

Chaim Bloom: The fast start has gotten skeptics like me off his back for now. But the real question is if they stay in contention and need to fortify the bullpen or everyday spots, will he sit on his hands to sacrifice contending till the end to preserve the farm system’s rebuild for another year?

Chris Sale: If he’s ready to help after it’s too late to stretch him out, could he be used out of the bullpen? In a pre-designed programmed way to provide a certain number of quality innings per week that reduces arm stress as he builds back up? They probably won’t do that, but if able, he’s likely better than anyone they could get at the deadline, thus letting Chaim not use his prized prospects as trade chips.

So that’s the take for the first quarter of the season. Though one other thought has crept into my mind while examining the weaknesses. Is it possible that the 2021 Sox are like the 2013 edition? Who I kept saying about right up until the World Series, how are they doing this because they are not that good? So, with that highly enjoyable season in mind, regardless of where it all ends, put me on the “glass is half full” side.

At least for now.

It’s weird that in the worst Patriots season in two decades, this football season/off-season has seemed to last longer than any of the previous 20. It’s mid-May and I’m still writing about legitimate, current Patriots news. Another example of how public interest for the NFL off season has overrun baseball and its once beguiling hot stove league. Also due I guess to my meager pre-season expectations for the surprising 2021 Red Sox, the sad, embarrassing disintegration of the Celtics’ once promising future and not even knowing if the Bruins are still playing because my streaming service has kicked NESN off its platform.

So football reigns. At least for one final week until we finally get to the Red Sox next week. That is, unless Coach B surprises everyone by pulling off the until now non-rumored Mac Jones for Tom Brady swap. Until that happens, though, here are our final thoughts on the draft and news around it until September.

Regardless of what I hear about draft and Patriots “steals” like Christian Barmore (a first-round talent), Ronnie Perkins (could be a great edge rusher) (which is what they said about Chase Winovich) orall-name teamer Rhamondre Stevenson (the next LeGarrette Blount),I don’t believe anything till I see guys play in real games.

Incidentally, when I hear the draft’s top-rated D-lineman (Barmore) fell to the Pats in the second round over maturity issues, I think Dominique Easley or Josh Gordon at best and Aaron Hernandez at worst. Not making any statement about a specific kid, just saying when I hear “slide” coupled with “maturity issues” that’s what pops into my head.

Football 101: Only five players in NFL history have been named first team All Pro in their first three years in the league. One is currently active. Name them.

When the latest Aaron Rodgers snit/pout comes to light, what word comes to mind first — self-centered, diva or crybaby?

But if you were SF would you have done the pre-draft rumored Rodgers-to-SF deal for the third overall pick and Jimmy G? Yes for me.

Albert Einstein Award: In my informal tracking of the most well-known mockers, only ESPN’s Todd McShay hit the Patriots’ draft day trifecta of being right that the 49er’s would take Trey Lance and not Jones at third overall, the Pats would stay home, not trade up, to get Jones at 15 and Jimmy G would not be traded.

Cosmo Kramer Hipster Doofus Award: Goes to “hey look at me” NBC contrarian Chris Simms, who always makes outlandish picks to look like the smartest, hippest dude in the room if they come out right. Then he’ll mention the one that only he got right, and neglect to mention the 30 others he got wrong. This year it was saying QB-needy New England would shock all by trading up to 11 for Alabama speedster Jaylen Waddle over taking a QB. Nope — they got Jones at 15, while Waddle went sixth to Miami and a QB, Justin Fields, did go at 11 to Chicago. Simms had Fields sliding to 32. Nice call, dude.

A Little History: With Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Lance going 1-2-3 it was the third time quarterbacks were taken with the first three picks, and the history is not great. The last time was 1999 when top pick Tim Couch and third pick Akili Smith both busted and, while second pick Donovan McNabb had a long career, I never warmed to him. The other was 1971 with Jim Plunkett (Stanford), dad of Peyton and Eli, Archie Manning (Mississippi) and Dan Pastorini (Santa Clara). All had long careers, but none are Hall of Famers and only Plunkett won Super Bowls (1980 and 1983). But only after he was beaten to a pulp after being taken first overall by the moribund Patriots and traded for the boatload of draft picks that laid the foundation for the good Chuck Fairbanks teams in the mid-1970’s.

Since history suggests at least two taken in Round 1 will bust, my picks are Fields and Wilson. Have nothing to back that up beyond history and my gut feeling. Gut— haven’t trusted an Ohio State QB since the Baltimore Colts gambled on Art Schlichter in 1982, with the most recent examples being Dwayne Haskins and Troy Smith. History — if anyone can screw it up it’s the Jets. I’ve been hearing since Al Woodall replaced Joe Namath how good the next QB will be. Al wasn’t, and not just because he was a dead ringer for Jethro on The Beverly Hillbillies.

I’ve got nothing against the likable Wilson. But from a small town in Utah to NYC seems like a bad combo. The ravenous NYC media is already making him out to be the second coming of Gandhi after also doing the same to Sam Darnold and Mark “Sanchize.” But in being better-looking than Brady and Jimmy G combined he’ll make a fortune in endorsements playing there.

By the way, after seeing the damage Waddle’s electrifying speed did in those ESPN video clips, I’d say the last piece Coach B needs is a No. 1/speed receiver. So I’m all in for a post-June 1 trade with cap-strapped Atlanta for Julio Jones.

I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that when/if Jones is ready, we could see a two-headed QB monster at some point, with Jones as the starter and Cam having a third and short/ goal line runner and change-of-pace passer wildcat QB role.

Football 110 Answer: The five who were All-Pros in their first three NFL seasons are Earl Campbell, Lawrence Taylor, 1990s Eagles tight end Keith Jackson, Barry Sanders, and the current one, Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson.

Finally, for the record, I’m not holding my breath on that rumored Mac-for-Tom swap started here today. But don’t forget to pass it on. And what’s the bet that if it happens the hipster dude Simms says he had it first?

With Bill Belichick soon to be on the clock really needing to get it 100 percent right for the first time since 2001, last Thursday’s NFL draft was a big day for Patriot Nation. But, given his exasperating draft history of mindlessly trading up and down the board, I didn’t enter the night with great confidence. Especially with his annoying penchant for trading out of the first round for a better “value” pick in the second and then blowing it on failed DBs like Joejuan Williams, Duke Dawson, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Tavon Wilson and Ras-I Dowling.

But after a less than satisfactory year after Tom Brady took his talents to a south beach, this time there couldn’t be any of the usual nonsense. He needed to get a long-term quarterback solution. That had everyone but those holding out for a trade for Jimmy G begging, and I mean begging, for a trade up to get one of the five top-rated quarterback prospects.

That set the stage as the night started. And the following is an account of how it went for David Long the fan, not the columnist, over the mostly excruciating 100 minutes from when Roger the Dodger opened the 2021 NFL draft until Coach B picked at 15.

I was calm, cool and collected through picks 1 and 2. Three was a shocker, at least to the “experts” who assured all that after trading three firsts and a third to move up there the 49ers would absolutely take Alabama QB Mac Jones. But somewhere along the line indecision crept into the SF war room and they went with ND State’s uber-athletic Trey Lance instead. That also put to rest the local media’s (except me) obsession with Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to Foxboro being inevitable. Never was, because no team has ever been imbecilic enough to dump a solid veteran QB to hand its legit Super Bowl ambitions over to any rookie on Day 1.

However, that didn’t change the equation for Patriot Nation, as two of the top five QBs remained as Lance was just swapped for Jones. That meant the real action, angst and worry now got started with all the picks to 8 trade-up possibilities. Scuttlebutt had the Falcons (4) and Carolina (8) as possibles to go QB. But thanks to enormous cap hit consequences on Matt Ryan and Carolina having just traded for Matt Darnold,that was unlikely.Still I crossed my fingers, but neither did. Phew. Denver, who clearly needs a QB, was next. But nope, they went DB Jaycee Horn to eliminate another QB contender or trade-up slot, making Denver’s choice both weird and lucky for New England. Phew again.

At 10, ESPN’s Mike Greenberg says “we’ve got a trade.” Please don’t say Chicago, WFT or New Orleans! Nope, in a move even weirder than Denver’s, hated rivals Philly and Dallas go all Henry Kissinger on us to swap 12 for 10. But turns out not to be détente but a desire to jointly screw another AFC East rival, as Philly jumped ahead of the G-Men to take Bama wideout Jaylen Waddle, whom the NYG’s badly wanted.

So, with the G-Men and Dallas having no QB interest, I’m back to the trade up mantra. Except at 11 I hear, “We’ve got another trade between the Giants and … Chicago.” Yikes! That means QB 4 is gone. Still, It’s still sort of lucky, as they took Ryan Day’s Ohio State QB Justin Fields to leave the already QB-solid Cowboys, Chargers and Minnesota between the Pats and the QB I wanted all along — Jones. So I’m back shouting, “GO UP will you please!” Although to be truthful it was more like begging him, along the lines of when I was on my knees begging Grady Little to take Pedro out of Game 7 vs. the Yanks during the 2003 baseball playoffs.

But then it’s all in jeopardy. Another trade is announced for the last pick before the Pats. Now it’s double fingers and legs crossed and I’m in full body contorted mode while squinting at the TV to help me both hear (good news) and not hear (if it was bad). Don’t ask me how it does either, because it doesn’t. Then comes the biggest shocker of the night, when the Jets of all teams save Bill from himself by moving into the 14th slot. They already took Zach Wilson, so no QB there. Of course, given his history I knew freaking Bill could still trade back and out of the first round.

But no — Roger the Dodger goes, “with the 15th pick the Patriots select” — please no DB, please no DB — “Mac Jones of Alabama.” Exhale and say PHEW as I uncross my cramped fingers, legs and de-contort my torso. Well, in truth I may have exaggerated the contorting parts just a bit. You’d have to be insane to do that at my age. Though when I was kid I once left my head resting on a radiator one Sunday in November as it kept getting warmer and warmer because doing it coincided with a big Giants comeback vs. Washington and I figured it was good luck. Hurt all the next day, but it was worth it. You know, once a lunatic fan, always a lunatic fan. So while exaggerated, that is how it played out in my head.

As for the net cost accounting to get the last three available QBs: (1) San Francisco — the position swap from 12 to third overall cost first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, along with 2022 third. (2) Chicago — their 2022 first pick to go from 20 to 11. (3) New England — thanks to a nice combo of strategy, guts and a little luck they spent nothing. We’ll hold back on “In Bill We Trust” stuff until we see the goods from the 4.0 GPA graduate-a-year-early ex-Alabama chucker.

So good luck and welcome to town, young man.

With Round 1 going off tonight, draft day has arrived. Finally! The mocks are done and all that’s left is the announcers introducing every single player taken as if they are certain Hall of Famers, which we all know they won’t be. Oh, and there’s uproar around here if Coach B freaking trades down or out of Round 1 altogether instead of addressing the need everyone around here wants him to address on the draft’s first round. If that happens, yowza.

In the meantime, with Jacksonville on the clock here are some topical thoughts.

The Quarterback Issues:With three QB’s expected to go 1-2-3 tonight (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and a mystery guy from the trio of Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields to San Francisco), with the other two likely to be taken in the Top 10, QB’s will be the night’s biggest story whether that happens or not, but especially if it doesn’t.

When I see scouts bash someone anonymously, as some are doing to Jones or Fields, I’m thinking it’s either a smoke screen from a team with interest, or someone trying to pump their own tires with a reporter and not having the stones to put their name on it.

Given the varying degrees on how good people think the Tom Brady play-alike Jones is, if I were doing the evaluating I’d go back to Brady’s 2000 scouting reports to compare them with what’s being said about the Bama QB today. Of special interest would be what the knocks were and whether they actually mattered in the long run.

After the fourth QB comes off the board, would it be smart for Buffalo to trade up in front of the Pats and then re-auction it to a QB-needy team like Chicago at a lower price? Unconventional for sure. But depending how expensive it is, would a couple of lower draft picks be an acceptable cost to keep a long-term solution at QB away from their AFC East rival for a couple more years?

Does it seem weird that QB’s from Utah, Alabama and North Dakota will be in Cleveland tonight and Fields from nearby Columbus wont’? Could that mean it’s to save embarrassment because his camp thinks he could suffer a major slide?

Big Board All Name Team:(1) Kwity Paye, edge rusher, Michigan. (2) Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon. (3) Hamilcar Rashed Jr., edge, Oregon State. (4) Azeez (god bless you) Ojulari, OLB, Georgia. (5) Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington. (6) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC. (7) Ifeatu Melifonwu, DB, Syracuse.(8) Hamsah Nasirildeen, DB, Florida State. (9) Osa Odighizuwa, DT, UCLA. (10) Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State.

Although I’d have paid to be the announcer at UNC for the Chazz and Dazz show, which has LB Chazz Surratt and wideout Dazz Newsome ranked at 79 and 90 on the Big Board.

Speaking of the Big Board, the most recent one I saw had all five QB’s ranked accordingly, Expected first and second picks Lawrence and Zach Wilson ranked first and fifth overall. Lance was at eight, Fields nine and Jones at 20.

2020 Hunches Not Based on Facts or Scouting Reports: I get a bad feeling when people have been calling a guy a “generational talent” for as long as they have been doing it for Lawrence because after that happens evaluators get lazy and don’t see any flaws that develop.

To those hanging to Jimmy G coming to the Patriots like a dog with a bone: If the Pats don’t go QB in Round 1, I think Cam Newton is more likely to be the QB in Foxborough in 2022 than Jimbo.

Rumor Mill: After moving from 3 to 12 and then back to 6,rumor has it Miami is trying to get a second pick in the Top 10 by trading up with the 18th pick. The likely trade partner is Denver at 9, which would be bad news, good news for the Patriots. Bad because no one wants a division rival getting a talent infusion from two Top 10 picks. Good because if they do have their eye on a QB, Denver dropping behind them in the order takes out a QB-needy competitor out of the running.

With QB’s and potentially elite receivers expected to dominate the first 10 picks, teams looking for defensive or offensive help, like Cincinnati (who could go for a receiver) at 5, need help everywhere. Detroit (7), Carolina (8), Dallas (10) and the G-Men (11) are possible landing spots if a QB they like slides to those spots and the Pats want to act.

Ancient Draft History:If one of the ballyhooed QB’s slides to them and they act, it won’t be the first time they’ve taken a QB at 15. The other time was 1983 for (gulp) Tony Eason. Not a horrible player, but soft as a grape and got famously yanked in SB 20 because he was terrified of the Bears defense. Worse still, they passed on Dan Marino, who went 12 picks later to Miami. What might have been comes to mind, especially since the invincible Da Bears’ only loss in 1985 was a 38-24 verdict when Marino threw for 27 and three TDs.

Speaking of ancient history, when the Pats took Richard Seymour sixth overall in 2001, Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson went next to San Diego. So here’s the question: If that draft were held today would you stick with Big Richard or go with the top playmaker of that era? As good as LT was, but with three SBs being won by a defense-first team and he was its best player, they made the right call.

And One More Thing: With Brady winning the Super Bowl in Year 1 after basically being allowed to leave/pushed out, if Coach B trades does trade out of Round 1 altogether again, Patriot Nation will go berserk giving “In Bill We Trust” its second major hit in a year.

There are seven days left in the endless lead-up to the NFL draft, when mock drafts from so-called experts have grown from being fun draft-day reading into a four-month-long marathon. All being presented by “insiders” who act like they know exactly what each team is thinking. Except since everyone is different, it shows no one is doing anything more than guessing.

Case in point, all the yacking following the 49ers trading up to the third spot to supposedly get Alabama QB Mac Jones because he’s Coach Kyle Shanahan’s kind of pocket passing QB. That caught special attention in Patriot Nation because it could impact NE’s ability to fill their long-term need at QB in a draft filled with high upside options. Except then came stories knocking Jones for not being an elite athlete and that SF really wanted uber athletic Trey Lance of North Dakota State, until Ohio State’s Justin Fields ran a 4.3 40 during his Pro Day. So the reality is they’re all just guessing about who’ll go right after Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson are the first two QBs taken off the board by the Jags and Jets.

So the bottom line is don’t take it all as gospel. Just enjoy it all because it informs you about needs of teams ahead of the Pats and for how the big board ranks those who’ll be in play leading up to the Pats pick at (for now) 15. Here’s a guide to what they face next Thursday night, with a sprinkle of what I’d do if I were the GM making their decisions.

Should They Trade Up? It would be like Coach B to make everyone crazy by gambling that the QB they like will fall to them at 15. That doesn’t seem likely, but stranger things have happened. Having said that, unless they’re certain they can get who they want, they shouldn’t deal until they can guarantee they’ll get him.

Is Trading Up Worth The Price? It’ll take a combination of picks from Rounds 1-3 to go up. Here’s who they’ve taken in Rounds 1-3 since 2012. So you be the judge how damaging losing any of those picks would have been to the cause. Round 1 – Dont’a Hightower, Chandler Jones, Dominique Easley, Malcom Brown,Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry. Round 2 – Tavon Wilson, Aaron Dobson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Duke Dawson , Joejuan Williams, Kyle Dugger. Round 3 – Jake Bequette, Logan Ryan, Joe Thuney, Geneo Grissom, Antonio Garcia, Chase Winovich and Anfernee Jennings. For me, out of 24 picks or tradeouts, just Hightower, Jimmy G, Ryan, Thuney and Wynn are big losses and the last four could be replaced.

Who Needs To Be Boxed Out: (1) Denver (ninth) – Drew Lock is the latest John Elway QB failure. (2) Washington (19) – they’re going with 112-year-old short-term rental Ryan Fitzpatrick. (3) Chicago (20) – with the GM and coach on the hotseat, more likely they need immediate help from a veteran. (4) Pittsburgh (24) – Big Ben is on his last legs, so beware. (5) New Orleans (28) – if you missed the news Drew Brees just retired and has only question marks behind him.

The Possible Trade-Up Slots:

4 – Atlanta: With cap hits of $48 million, $40 million and $28 million over the next three years they can’t trade Matt Ryan. So it doesn’t make sense to draft a QB and sit him for two years. Realistic trade possibility.

5 – Cincinnati: Joe Burrow got killed all year leading to a torn ACL. So an improved O-Line is badly needed, which they can get at 15. Unless they prefer a top receiver like LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase.

6 – Miami: They’re not helping the Pats. But they can probably get one of Chase, Kyle Pitts, Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle among the top receivers they’re eyeing with the ninth spot they’d get in a trade with Denver.

7 – Carolina: They just gave up five draft picks for Sam Darnold so he’s probably on a two-year QB trial. A possible trade partner.

9 – Denver: They need a QB too and since the leap from 4, 5 or 6 from 9 is not as costly as it is from 15, they’re the biggest competitive threat.

Best Mock Draft Trade: Here’s the best trade-up deal I saw that gets the Pats in position to get a QB. It’s from NJ.com, which covers the Jets and Giants. They predicted a trade with Carolina for the eighth pick to take Lance in return for a first and third in 2021 and a second-round pick in 2022. Don’t know if it’s realistic, but the net is, their QB for just a second and a third. Providing I like the 17-0 in college Lance, where he never threw even one interception: done.

Is Athleticism Overrated? I guess the experts somehow missed that the 43-year-old who runs like an ostrich just won his seventh SB in February. And that 17 of the last 20 SB’s have been won by non-athletic QB’s. Which says that despite trendy thinking, QB athleticism is really a(n un-needed) luxury and that’s it.

Go QB Or Bust: I know they need one. But given that 34 of the 74 Round I QB’s since 1990 have been busts and 16 others just mediocre, picking in Round I guarantees nothing, not even for Lawrence. History shows one or more of the so-called top five QBs aren’t going to work out, and that 24 QB’s taken below Round 1 turned out to be very good to excellent, including three of the four leaders (Brady, Brees, Favre) in TD passes all-time. So we could look back in 10 years and see that likely second-rounders Kellen Mond of Texas A&M or Florida’s Kyle Trask were actually the guys who should have gone in Round I. All of which leaves me with only one clear feeling going into draft night.