Mac Jones analysis

The Big Story – Fixing the Patriots: With free agency opening in less than two weeks it’s time to look at what Coach B and company need to do to fix the Patriots for 2023, a crucial year in the “Tom vs. Bill” debate because it’s the fourth season since Tom Brady left the building and that’s enough time to recover from losing their franchise player. So a big year for the coach’s overall legacy.

There are two schools of thought about how big a fix is needed.

One says with a productive defense they can get back into the mix with the right moves on offense.

The other says no matter what they add they can’t close the gap between them and the elites because the offense needs major surgery and that might include a change at QB because they can’t go toe to toe with the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow with Mac Jones under center.

In any event, here’s a look at what needs to be considered, starting with a focus on the QB.

No. 1 Question: If I’m the Patriots’ owner, the first thing I want to know is why did a QB who was very good as a rookie take a dramatic step backward in his second season as Jones did. After that, I need to know if Mac is the guy to go forward with

Mac Jones: One theory is he’s not that good, or he’s limited, and Josh McDaniels helped mask that in 2021.

Thus one solution is to bring in someone else while recouping a couple of draft picks by trading him. One proponent of this is Christopher Gasper, who wrote in the Boston Globe last week they should dump Mac and bring back free agent Jimmy Garoppolo, in a column that was remarkably like him saying last January the Celtics had to trade Marcus Smart for a real point guard or they’d never go anywhere. Boy, he nailed that one.

This is the same. Lamar Jackson is one thing (though that would require major cap surgery). But the last thing they need is an injury-prone/slow-healing QB who’ll cost three times what Mac does on his rookie contract, whose injuries derailed two of the last five SF seasons. And it would have been three this year if a circa-2001-Brady-like miracle hadn’t surfaced when he broke his leg. Especially since it cost them once already when in 2016 all he had to do was last four games during Tom Brady’s suspension and didn’t make it to the second half of Game 2. Sorry, if you can’t stay on the field you can’t play. Don’t want him.

Plus, while I’m under no illusion Jones did not have his own 2022 issues, I know what I saw in 2021, so I’m not willing to give up on him yet.

I think it was an amalgam of the following.

Play Calling and Game Planning: It’s no secret Matt Patricia in these roles was a total disaster. It was simplistic, predictable and overly cautious to the point where it seemed the goal was to not get a turnover rather than to make plays. It was also often done too slowly, which led to an unacceptable number of timeouts called to avoid penalties. All of which played into some publicized immature, frustration-driven sideline antics by Jones.

Offensive Line: In a word, it was awful. More specifically, penalty-prone, often porous and inconsistent from week to week. That likely contributed to the knock Mac locks on receivers. That leads to bad habits, as when you don’t have a lot of time you look to get rid of it quickly, over going through progressions to find the open guy. And of course sacks lead to down and distance issues, which make sustaining drives more challenging.

The Weapons: They’re below average. It’s the same problem Brady had as he sulked his way through 2019 and Cam Newton had in 2020. They get little separation, don’t do much after the catch (besides Kendrick Bourne) and no one puts the fear of God into defensive game planners. That was exacerbated by the play calling, because throws to Hunter Henry up the seam worked when tried but were rarely called until the end of the year.

Can They Fix It For 2023? It’s a little of both schools of thought. I do like the defense, but, given their swing-and-miss ratio on recent personnel decisions, especially during the 2021 spending spree, I don’t have much faith in the personnel department to have a good enough batting average to hit on enough FAs and draft choices to fill all the holes. However, it doesn’t mean they can’t do it. Plus with Bill O’Brien named to replace Patricia the play calling issue has been addressed.

The 2023 Fix: After one up and one down year it’s too early to give up on Mac. You won’t know what he really is until the other issues are fixed. If you don’t believe me, compare Brady’s 2019 numbers and when they no longer were an issue in Tampa Bay the next year. Help is needed now, so they should focus on the next three years and put whatever draft capital is needed for trades and aim all free agent spending to get ready on Day 1 solutions to do these things:

(1) Fix the offense line, which starts with getting two, new younger tackles.

(2) Bring in a consistent A+ home run-hitting deep threat/wide receiver that teams must game plan for. Exhibit A is what adding A.J. Brown to DeVonta Smith in Philly did for Jalen Hurts. Ditto for Tua after adding Tyreek Hill to Jaylen Waddle. Mac was better than both guys at Bama when he was teamed with Waddle and Smith.

(3) Apply whatever is left to plug other holes as needed.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

The week that was

The Big Story: With the All-Star game history, the NBA begins what it calls the second half of its season even though the Celtics have already played 71 percent of their 82 games. The good news is that with 42 wins and 17 losses they start the stretch run to the playoffs with the best record in the league, a fact made more impressive by their doing it playing the first two months without Robert Williams and the last two weeks with a majority of their starters out with injuries.

The Bucks along with the 76ers and Cavaliers round out the Top 4 in the Eastern Conference and are the teams that pose the biggest obstacles to getting back to the Finals. Though I’m not counting out the Heat until I see them pick up their fourth loss in any playoff series.

Thumbs Up: The interim tag being taken off Joe Mazzulla’s title. Well-earned.

Thumbs Down: Can’t say I was happy to see Jaylen Brown play in the All-Star game. I know it’s a thrill, but when you miss three games going into the All-Star break it’s better to take the additional time off to heal, rather than risk getting dinged or worse. Leadership is about putting team over personal disappointment.

Sports 101: The most surprising nugget mentioned during the hoo-ha of LeBron James becoming the NBA all-time scoring leader was Bob Ryan writing in the Boston Globe that LBJ is fourth on the all-time assist list as well. So name the three people ahead of him and, just for fun, the six behind him to round out the Top 10.

News Item – Jayson Tatum: Even though the 184-175 final shows what a competitive joke the aforementioned All-Star game is, I guess Tatum was ready to play. When you think of the guys who’ve played in that game, it’s impressive he now sits atop all of them after going for a record 55 points as he also took home MVP honors. Though since three others scored over 30, including Brown, who had 36, it wasn’t exactly a defensive struggle. For the record, he was 22-32, 10-18 from deep while making just one free throw.

News Item – the Kyrie Irving Press Conference: Speaking of people who put themselves above team (and everyone else): The self-delusional quote of the week came from (who else) Irving, who said at his introductory press conference in Dallas that after getting suspended for supporting a racist film this year, derailing their 2021-22 season by refusing to get vaxxed and the previous two with his usual array of injuries, that he “felt very disrespected” by the Nets and that what he wanted was to be in a place where he’s “celebrated, and not just tolerated.” Oh, and after missing what would have been his third game with Dallas with a back issue on Thursday, he played in the All-Star Game a few nights later.

Random Thoughts – Lou Grant Award: Only old bucks will get this. But there is a famous scene in the late great The Mary Tyler Moore Show when her grumpy boss Mr. Grant says to her, “You’ve got spunk,” which Mary takes as a compliment until he adds, “I HATE spunk”! Well, that’s what you have to say about the Celtics bench, which likely is the best since the days when John Havlicek was the sixth man. Though the ones from ’85-’86 and ’07-’08 may take issue with that. But they have done the job all year long and especially during the recent deluge of injuries heading into the break. However, instead of Mr. Grant hating their spunk, it was Philly, whom they beat without four starters, and Milwaukee a few nights later when the Celtics narrowly lost in OT with all five starters missing, when the Bucks only got to OT because Jrue Holiday dropped a 70-foot heave at the end of the first half.

GiannisAntetokounmpopulled off a box score miracle in the ASG by being credited with scoring two points while officially playing no minutes in the game. It happened because he played just one play due to a sprained wrist. So someone please explain what was the point of playing at all?

Media Notes: (1) Somebody please tell Brian Scalabrine that LaMelo Ball is nothing like Pete Maravich as he continues to say on Celtics broadcasts. Pistol Pete was like trying to follow the sleight of hand of a great magician, which in Pete’s case was the ball because you were never sure where it was going. Low dribble, high dribble, hesitation dribble to the blow-by drive. Behind the back, through his legs or sometimes yours. No-look passes, high off the glass or pull up from 35. LaMelo is a nice young player, but he ain’t got any of that. Pete was a magician with the ball. (2) Similarly, please tell back-up play-by-play guy Sean Grande that an NBA player playing occasionally on back-to-back nights is not akin to scaling Mt. Everest like he makes it out to be by mentioning it over and over when they do it.

A Little History: For the record: In the year Wilt Chamberlain averaged 50 points a game (1961-62), he “only” scored 42 points in the All-Star game. However, if you take out the three-pointers that didn’t exist in those days Tatum only beats Wilt by three points, 45-42.

Sports 101 Answer: Nos. 1 through 3 are John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul.

Nos. 5 through 10 are Steve Nash, Mark Jackson (that one surprised me too), Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas and Russell Westbrook.

The Final Word: Glad the Celtics didn’t dismantle the team to get Kevin Durant. Great player, but trading a 25-year-old 27-point-a-game scorer and key defender who also is a very good contributor to team rebounding for a 34-year-old who has missed all but 111 of his team’s last 300 games makes no sense to me.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

The week that was

The Big Story: It wasn’t quite the Patriots coming back in dramatic fashion to beat Atlanta in SB 51. But given that it ended with a game-winning field goal kicked in the waning seconds after a frenetic second-half comeback led by a gritty, bloody sock-like star (for the second straight game), it’s fair to say SB 57 goes into the books as one of the Top 10 Super Bowl games. Though Kansas City’s 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles does not make the Mahomes Chiefs a dynasty, as the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin said they were on Monday. At least not yet. To be that they need to win two or three more times and hang around the top of the league’s contenders for another 10 years. For now let’s just celebrate the two-time champs’ admirable win and give a shout out to Philadelphia for fighting the good fight and just coming up short in a great game.

Thumbs Up: To LeBron James for breaking Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s all-time NBA scoring record of 38,387 set in 1984. Say what you want about LeBron, and my only issue is how he unethically got around tampering rules to get Anthony Davis to quit on his teammates in mid-season to make him a Laker. Beyond that he always puts the team first, plays hard and almost always shows up to play. Along with talent, durability and effort are the prime factors for someone to break a record that takes as long as it does to become the NBA’s all-time scoring leader. Well done, young man.

Thumbs Down: To the bloated monstrosity the Super Bowl has become. Born simply as the NFL/AFL championship game, it has become an “all things to every possible aspect of society” attempt to cram as many eyeballs in as possible to maximize TV ratings. It leaves us with ridiculous sights like jamming what seemed like 110,000 people around the mid-field coin toss, including kids from NFL PR/marketing programs no one ever heard of or cares about; worthy people being used in transparent “Hey Aren’t We Great, Guys?” PR ploys, and a 40-minute half-time distraction with a person wearing a bright red outfit that made it look like one of those high-flying objects the Air Force shot down last week had avoided detection and landed on the half-time show stage, followed by about 200 people filling in divots kicked in by said show on a field that already had people slipping far more than players should for a game of this magnitude. All of which makes the actual purpose for the massive production (the game) a sideshow. Sorry to those insulted by this “get off my lawn” rant, but I’m a frustrated guy who just wants to watch the freaking AFL/NFL championship game devoid of all the other crap.

Sports 101: How many of the seven other people who at one time held the all-time NBA scoring record can you name? Hints: One guy’s son later played in the league and another played for the Celtics before he took over the lead for a short time.

News Item – NBA Trading Deadline a Doozy: Can’t remember as active a trade deadline as last week. The dual big stories were the Nets scrapping the plan that almost everyone (except me) said would lead to multiple championships in Brooklyn and their star Kevin Durant landing in Phoenix. It makes them more dangerous for sure, but it did strip a weak bench of its best guy (Cam Johnson). Though the pick-up of Terrence Ross after a buyout in Orlando was a nice helpful addition. The two other biggest winners were, with LeBron leaving the GM-ing to the brass for once, the Lakers coming away with three nice additions to their bench while dumping ill-fitted Russell Westbrook’s gargantuan contract (and ego) and the Nets, who’ll be better than you think, starting over with a zillion unprotected first-round picks, a better team-oriented point guard and three more solid wing players to give trade flexibility this summer. Finally Jae Crowder going to Milwaukee makes them tougher vs the Celtics because he’s a lot better than Grayson Allen.

And then there’s the they’ll-never-learn chatter that teaming Kyrie Irving with Luka Doncic will make Dallas a legit contender. SPOILER ALERT: That’s what they said about the KD-KI pairing, which ended in disaster, just like it will in Dallas.

Do The Math: in case you are interested in the final Durant/Irving Tally in Brooklyn, it went like this: Durant played in 114 games out of 300 they played when he was a Net, while for Kyrie it was 143 in 300 as they went 159 and 141 (53 percent) while going one and done in the playoffs twice and losing in Round II the other time.

Not to mention Brooklyn let two inmates run the asylum, leading to the firing of three coaches in three years, Kenny Atkinson (totally undeserved), Jacque Vaughn (the first time when he was passed over ’cause Durant and Irving didn’t approve) and the disrespected all-timer Steve Nash (deserved). All for the bargain basement price of $22.9 million.

Sports 101 Answer: The NBA all-time leading scorer parade started with Piston George Yardley, followed byGeorge Mikan, the traded-for-Bill Russell Easy Ed Macauley, Dolph Schayes, whose son Danny was an NBA’er, first 20,000 point career scorer Bob Pettit, Wilt Chamberlain and Jabbar.

Finally, Greg Olsen doesn’t have the star power of future No. 1 Tom Brady, but Fox hit a homer with its new-for-now lead analyst. He was on all year with useful insights and thinking ahead strategies, like saying two plays before it happened KC runners should get down before the end zone to run out the clock before kicking the winning field goal. Not sure I agree, but it gave viewers something to consider, which is what a good analyst should do. And since Harrison Butker hit the FG the strategy worked too.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

The week that was

The Big Story – Super Bowl: If I make it to Sunday I will have seen all 57 of them. Regarding this one, not exactly sure what to make of the Eagles-Chiefs match-up. But I do know a lot will be made about their being Andy Reid’s last two teams. Wonder if they’ll mention that since Andy got pushed out in Philly they have done what he couldn’t do there: win the Super Bowl, with a chance for another on Sunday. Of course KC has won one and been to two more in the Reid era there as well.

And then there’s the overdoing it on the Kelce brothers, KC tight end Travis and Philly center Jason.

Sports 101: In the wake of Denver trading for Sean Payton to be their new head coach last week, how many Super Bowls were won by the last four teams to trade their head coach to another team during the reign of Don Shula, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick and Jon Gruden in their new location and how many SBs were won by their new team with them as coach?

Thumbs Up – Tom Brady Retires: Congrats on an All-World career and thanks for all the great memories.

Thumbs Down – Tom Brady Retires Again: Now, unlike after the first retirement, be a man and thank Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick and the entire organization properly for what they did for your time in New England.

Random Thoughts Regarding Said Retirement: To ever pompous ex-WFAN guy Mike Francesa’s declaration on First Takethat Peyton Manning was a better “regular season” QB than Brady, as my father used to say, hokum.

The numbers say the following.

On Manning’s side, he had five MVP Awards to Brady’s three. He also was the QB on the 2000-09 All Decade team and had the record-setting 55 TD pass season of 2013.

On Brady’s side, he was the QB for the 2010-19 All Decade team, he has more wins as a starting QB (243 to 186), and despite playing 68 more games he has fewer losses than Manning (73 to 79). That means he has a far better winning percentage (78.2 to 70.1). Brady, also, oh by the way, has the record for most TD passes, passing yards and completions in league history. And despite playing those 68 more games Brady threw 41 fewer interceptions (211 to 252). And if Manning had played the same 333 games and maintained his one-pick-per-game average Manning would have 111 more interceptions. Given how important a factor turnovers are in winning and losing, that edge probably accounts for much of Brady’s W/L percentage edge.

And most importantly, Brady also has the better head-to-head record at 11-6.

Case closed – slam dunk.

As for Joe Montana being the better Super Bowl QB, maybe, but which would you rather have, seven rings and three near misses or four rings and no losses? And in a final category: By winning 10 Conference championships to the paltry four won by Montana and Manning he is by far the best overall QB in the playoffs of them all.

Mark It Down: On the day Kyrie Irving got traded/dumped by the Nets to Dallas, the Mavs were 28-26 and the sixth seed out West. I’m betting they finish below .500 and land in the play-in round by year’s end.

Passing of the Guard: In the “stars always get the big call” NBA, was it bad officiating to miss Jayson Tatum clearly whacking LeBron on his miss that let the Celtics-Lakers game go to overtime two Saturdays ago? Or a sign that Tatum’s stature is now such that he’s going to get those calls going forward? Especially in light of Lebron’s falling on the floor begging act that made him look like his fortune just got wiped out by an evil computer genius in a Mission Impossible movie.

Do I Care About – The NFL Pro Bowl? No. Now no longer content with being the worst of the All-Star games and dumbest to play in because of the injury risks, it’s fallen farther into irrelevance because of these factors: (1) It’s been “re-imagined” as a flag football game. (2) And that makes it so embarrassing to play in they had to go down the QB list to Ravens backup Tyler Huntley,who threw two TD passes all year, before they could find a QB who wasn’t faking an injury to get out of playing in it. Bailey Zappe was probably next behind Huntley. I give it three years until it’s re-imagined to the dumpster of dumb ideas.

I Disagree With:Ben Volin. Sorry, Ben, you saying in the Boston Globe that ticky-tack calls by the zebras interfered with or ruined the 49ers in their drubbing by the Eagles in the NFC title game is wrong. It happened because the SF defenders played like undisciplined boneheads with late hits and running into the punter to hand Philly a gift score at the end of the first half to make it 21-7 instead of the one-score 14-7 game it should have been. And Kyle Shanahan looked like a whiner constantly yelling at officials instead of at his own guys for hitting guys after they went out of bounds.

Sports 101 Answer: Among the Colts, Jets, Pats and Raiders, only the Baltimore Colts won a SB (in the year after trading Shula). Meanwhile the Patriots (after getting Coach B), Miami and Tampa Bay won a combined nine SBs after trading for their new HC. So history says Denver will likely win the deal getting Payton, even for a first- and second-round pick.

Prediction: The game will come down to how the best QB in football deals with arguably the greatest sacking defense in history. I suspect those quick hitters over the middle to Travis Kelce will be even more important than usual. As will their screen game, which is always among the best in the NFL. Philly 23-21.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

The week that was

Brady vs. Manning – The Sequel: The games with Tom Brady facing Peyton Manning-led teams were the marquee NFL events for the first 15 years of the 21st century. It was bigger than the teams themselves; when Manning moved to Denver, Indianapolis all but disappeared from the radar and Denver vs. New England became the game everyone circled on the calendar. But after four straight games decided by three points, two of which went to overtime and the other two of which were decided by last-second field goals, and having Cincy and KC in the last four Super Bowls, we now have a successor to Manning vs. Brady. Because even with the league filled with a boatload of talented young quarterbacks, after the last two AFC title game thrillers it is clearly Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow. Both have the same coolness under fire, with the added dimension of greater mobility to use their legs when needed, as Mahomes did in Sunday’s cataclysmic play. And with great weapons to collaborate with on offense, sturdy young teams behind them and having a coach who’s much better than it seemed two years ago and another whose next stop will be the Hall of Fame, Bengals vs. Chiefs will be the NFL game to circle over the next 10 years.

Rollin’ into the Hall: I’ve got nothing against Scott Rolen. But after seeing him voted into Baseball’s Hall of Fame last week I will say the “everyone gets a trophy” generation strikes again! Because like in the case of Harold Baines, not once during his career did it ever occur to me that Rolen might be a Famer, let alone should he get in. Not to knock him, because he was a very good longtime player, but sorry, the Hall is honoring greatness, not very goodness. Now my attitude has changed a little bit on it, just being about peak greatness to give a little more deference to guys who rack up numbers because of their longevity, because the durability to do that is a skill.

As for Rolen, they tell you you can’t play “what about him”-ism when it comes to Hall voting. But I say why not? When I heard Rolen was likely to get in I came up with 10 guys, like Dwight Evans, Albert Belle and Dick Allen, who were clearly more impactful in their time than Rolen was. But let’s focus on just two who played the same position: Joe Torre and Graig Nettles. Rolen’s numbers were .281 BA, 316 homers, 1287 RBI, 7 All-Star games and 8 Gold Gloves. But remember, making the All-Star game was taken far more seriously in the past, while Gold Gloves depend on who’s in your era.

In the case of Torre, he outhit Rolen (.292), had more RBI, more 100-RBI seasons and made 9 All-Star games, which he did at three different positions (C, 1B and 3B). Only Pete Rose did that besides him. He had the signature season of 1971 that Rolen never came within three area codes of when he won the batting title (.363) with 230 hits, 137 RBI and was MVP. For good measure he also sometimes hit clean-up for the Braves between Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews, who for the historically challenged hit a combined 1,266 home runs. In short: Him not being in while Rolen is in is a joke.

The case for Nettles is a lot closer as some of his numbers come from longevity and batting average was not his thing. But he’s got more homers (390), more RBIs (1,314) and a home run title and was a better fielder, though not as many GGs because he played when the spectacular Brooks Robinson did when he always got in on reputation whether he deserved it or not. Plus, Nettles was stationary defensively in the 1978 World Series, while Rolen hit .220 in the postseason.

AFC Championship Game: There are two things that distinguish football from other sports: how the players have to adapt to conditions around them by playing in anything from the searing Miami heat of September to last week’s driving snowstorm in Buffalo, and coping with the injuries most teams have at this time of year. This week was no different, with a 10-degree wind chill in KC, and SF having to play the Wildcat after its third- and fourth-string QBs got knocked out of the game and the Chiefs surviving after losing all but one wide receiver. Not to mention having their QB come into the game a week after suffering an injury that annually took Kelly Olynyk two months to recover from when he was a Celtic. But there was Mahomes throwing for 300 plus and making the game’s most crucial play on a mind-over-matter scramble to get the first down in the final seconds he always seems to get in crunch time before getting smacked out of bounds to get the 15-yard penalty that made the 47-yard FG that sent KC to the Super Bowl doable. So move over, Curt Schilling, because, as young’n Tony Romo astutely mentioned during the broadcast, this one goes up there with the bloody sock game, Willis Reed limping into Game 7 at MSG, and flu-stricken Michael Jordan going for 37 in the NBA Finals. Bravo, Patrick.

NFC Title Game Notes: (1) Nick Sirianni has a very similar resume to Coach B, with a D-III playing career and a million jobs before becoming a young HC at 40. But by getting to the SB in Year 2 he’s five years ahead of Bill. (2) Philly is a lot better than I thought they were. (3) Coach B, please pay attention to how adding two dynamic outside threats (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) turned the waiting until someone better comes along Jalen Hurts into an MVP-caliber player, because Mac Jones was better at Alabama than he was.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

The week that was

The NFL followed up the close games and the astonishing comeback of Jacksonville from down 27-0 to beat the San Diego, er, L.A. Chargers 31-30 in a wild card weekend with a series of boring duds last weekend. Next comes (for me) the best sports day on the calendar when the NFC and AFC play their title games on Sunday, where it’ll be the 49ers trying to get to the Super Bowl behind a rookie QB with just seven NFL starts to his name vs. the Eagles, followed by KC’s injured star Pat Mahomes facing the red hot Bengals in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game.

While the NFL commanded the most attention, that wasn’t the only thing that happened. Here are a few thoughts and outright pontifications on recent events.

Mahomes’s injured ankle is reminiscent of Tom Brady getting knocked out of the AFC title game in Pittsburgh during the run to their first title in 2001. That brought opening day starter Drew Bledsoe off the bench to save the day. He wasn’t lights out, but he did throw the decisive TD pass to the late David Patten that got them to the big game. Then we wondered all week if it would be Drew or Brady as QB on Sunday (there was only one week off because of the 9-11 attack). As everyone knows, Brady did play, and while he led the game-winning drive with Adam V sending his FG try right down Broadway, TB only threw for 145 yards.

Think Red Sox owner John Henry got the message that the natives are not happy when he and his over-his-head GM got booed off the stage at their ticket sale pep rally in Springfield, Mass., on Friday night?

I don’t know about you but the premise for the movie House Party of having one at LeBron James’ house, unbeknownst to LBJ, sounds like a funny idea in an Animal House kind of way.

I’m starting to sports-hate Steph Curry because he flops on every play. Sorry, but it’s not possible to fall as much as he does. Yet he gets the call all the time even though replays show defenders clearly are not touching him. Thought we were done with that nonsense after Michael Jordan retired.

Didn’t hear many of the yahoo M-V-P chants for Jayson Tatum in last week’s game vs. Golden State, did we? He did do something remarkable, though, by having a terrible game (outside of a few late plays) despite a 34-19-6 stat line that suggests otherwise. And his statement afterward that it was just one of 82 shows that, despite all the brilliance, he still doesn’t get it. Because there are five or six a year that aren’t one of 82. And after he choked against the Warriors in the Finals and again in their first meeting this year, they/he needed to make a statement on Thursday night. Which they did not by lucking out in OT vs. a team that has struggled all year except in two games vs Boston. Like the Pistons getting by Boston in the ’80s and then Jordan’s Bulls finally doing it to Detroit, emerging teams have to show they can beat their nemesis, and the Cs didn’t do that. That’s why if they meet in the Finals again I’m taking GS unless and until Tatum figures it out.

Things are progressing nicely for Wenyen Gabriel. He’s played in 38 of the Lakers’ 47 games when he’s getting about 16 minutes a night off the bench while averaging 6 points, 4 rebounds per while shooting 62.4 percent from the floor.

Everyone loves what Nate Eovaldi did in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series. But after winning just 24 games in four full seasons with the Sox while averaging just 101 innings per season, how much of a loss is he to the Red Sox? I know in the pitching world of today expectations are different than when you’d check the papers to see what the pitching match-ups would be on a daily basis. But six wins a year is not worth $20 million per year.

What a difference a year makes. A year ago there was outrage that Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich wasn’t getting at least Rooney Rule interviews to be a head coach after two stat-filled years with Brady. This year he just got fired/blamed for TB’s less than stellar offensive season.

Is it ironic, or just interesting, that amid all the talk of the negative brain drain impact on the Patriots coaching staff, the coaches who killed them the most were pre-drain returning Super Bowl vets Joe Judge and Matt Patricia?

Robert Williams is hurt again. This time after banging his left knee (the bad one) with Jaylen Brown. Celtics Nation and the brass are just going to have to live with the fact that the guy is fragile and likely never will be able to play a full season.Which means they need insurance for the playoffs.

Here’s another thing that’s wrong about how the steroid era is treated by Hall of Fame voters. Guys who came clean like Andy Pettitte don’t get in, while guys everyone knows were users are rewarded with induction by staying silent. I know it is complicated for some, but that seems wrong to me.

For the record, in addition to his record (by far) 18 post-season wins, Pettitte’s 256 wins in the five-man rotation era are more than the following Famers from the four-man rotation time: Carl Hubbell, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, Jim Bunning, Catfish Hunter, Stan Coveleski, Bob Lemon, Rube Marquard, Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax, as well as Yankee Famers Waite Hoyt, Whitey Ford and Herb Pennock. And he’s also got more than fellow five-man rotation guys Pedro Martinez, Jack Morris, Roy Halladay and John Smoltz.

My money is on a Philly-Cincy Super Bowl.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

Celtics at midway point

Observations, random thoughts and outright pontifications about the Celtics at mid-season.

What I Like: The most obvious is having the best record in the NBA and being on pace for 60 wins. Second is how they play with the fastest end-to-end pace since the John Havlicek, Dave Cowens, Jo Jo White Celtics in the 1970s. They are at their best when pushing the ball. And third is seeing the obvious growth in the key players. It suggests that, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and the two Williamses (Robert Williams and Grant Williams III) still shy of their primes, the best is yet to come.

What I Don’t Like: They have a nasty habit of playing down to the competition when they are facing bad teams. Five of their 12 losses were mail-it-in jobs against Orlando (two), Chicago (two) and Oak City (one), who were a combined 55-71 at the start of the week.

Who To Fear: With as many as six teams who get to the Finals out of the East and five more out West, the NBA is the most balanced it’s been in decades. So it depends on who’s hot and healthy at playoff time. Having said that, there isn’t anyone to fear. But, while both are languishing around .500 at the moment, the two I’m most wary of are Golden State and Miami because their coaches have a way of frustrating Tatum and Brown more than others. Plus I underestimated GS last year and won’t do that again until the dragon is slayed. Especially after how they took the Celtics apart in December on national TV. That said, to me their slow start had a lot to do with post-championship motivational issues.

Top Story: Are Brown and Tatum The Best Duo? It wasn’t that long ago that the experts on talk radio were saying “break them up because they can’t play together.” Now most wonder if they’re the best duo in the league. Aging, injuries and knuckle-headedness have eliminated most competitors, so I’d say they are there with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, though when/if Jamal Murray gets to full strength after ACL surgery he and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic probably challenge them.

A more interesting question to me is, are they becoming the best 1-2 duo in Celtics history? It’s moot if they don’t win multiple titles, and it’s doubtful either will match Larry Bird’s all around game. But right now they’re scoring more per game than Bird and Kevin McHale ever did. And they’re just approaching their primes. Get past them and it’s Bill Russell with whoever (Cousy, Hondo, Sam Jones). So probably not. But it’ll be fun watching it play out.

Hard Work Pays Off: I have my issues with both at times, but I admire the wide-ranging improvement to the offensive games of Jaylen Brown and especially Grant Williams because it is obviously a product of hard off-season work. When Brown first arrived his scoring was limited to things that came from his athletic gifts. Now he scores inside, outside, off the dribble, spotting up to catch and shoot and at the basket. The last piece needed to be among the most complete players in the league is improving his handle. As for Williams, he could barely make a lay-up as a rookie. First came spot-up three-point shooting from the corner last year, and this year he’s scoring by taking it to the basket and posting up. Next comes a jump shot off the dribble. It would also help if he stopped yapping after every foul call.

Robert Williams – Start or Off The Bench: What difference does it make if he starts or comes off the bench as long as he plays 32 minutes and is in at the end of tight games? I like him with the second unit because it makes it better and that gives a chance to get a big plus/minus edge. Plus it means he or Al Horford will always be on the floor through the entire game.

Malcolm Brogdon: Been campaigning to bring him here since he was in Milwaukee and he’s still exceeded my expectations.

Derrick White: I didn’t know much about him when they got him from San Antonio and thought the price to get him was a little high. But Brad Stevens was right when he said the trade was “a no-brainer.” I love this guy because he’s unflappable and plays the same way every game as he does his job with no ego and unselfishly.

Joe Mazzulla: Not sure his jaw can last a whole season with the way he works the gum during games, but so far so good. He’s making the case about bringing Ime Udoka back next year a hard one.

Pritchard Time: Sam Hauser had a great start making 50 percent of his 3-balls in November, but it’s been 29 percent since Dec. 1. And since he’s only out there to make threes his time should go to Payton Pritchard. They give up some size, he’s better defensively and as a spark off the bench. Plus he showed he can shoot the long ball. Wasn’t great in the playoffs, but that was his first time around and I expect that should improve.

Ime Udoka: Could Stevens trade him for a protected first-round pick? Might make sense for a team with young players and a lot of first picks like Oak City who need a coaching jolt.

Danny Ainge: Several of his alleged draft miscalculations actually turned out to be pretty valuable. Grant Williams (22nd), Payton Pritchard (26th) and especially Robert Williams (27th)have all defied expectations for where they were picked. And those who didn’t — Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith — were traded for White and Brogdon. All are key players. So Danny gets belated props for those picks.

MVP Chants: The fan support for Tatum is nice. April or May maybe. But sorry, doing it in November is yahoo city.

I know. I’m no fun.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

NFL 2022 wrap-up

After an awful week of fear for the life of Buffalo DB Damar Hamlin after he suffered an on-field heart attack on national TV, Week 18 thankfully ended with the happy news that he is steadily improving, as evidenced by his tweeting all throughout his team’s win over the Patriots on Sunday. Which leaves a chance to look at some of the interesting stories of what I thought was one of the more mundane, dramaless regular seasons in recent memory.

Exhibit A was the Patriots’ somehow missing the playoffs by just one game after losing games in the following fashions: (1) After coming back from down 22-0 they lost to the Bengals 22-18 because they fumbled inside their own five-yard line in the final minute of the game. They needed a TD instead of the easy FG they would have taken after not scoring on any of their three PAT attempts by failing on the two-point try they had to do because Nick Folk missed two extra point kicks. (2) They were thoroughly embarrassed 31-14 on Monday Night Football by the Bears, who finished with the worst record in the NFL. (3) They suffered the most humiliating NFL loss since the 2012 butt fumble game by handing the Raiders a win on the final play in the final seconds in the game that will be forever known as the Las Vegas Lateral game. (4) They lost by 12 in a must-win final-week game in Buffalo after giving up not one but two kick returns for TDs.

The only thing missing from their debacle of a season was Bill Belichick nearly getting electrocuted by a mic at a press briefing like Clive Rush almost was when introduced as new HC of the NEP’s in 1969.

From my pre-season preview here’s what I got right: (1) Matt Patricia would be a disaster as OC. (2) Kyle Dugger would be the man in the secondary. And what I got wrong: They’d badly miss JC Jackson in the secondary. They didn’t.

Biggest NFL Surprise: Jacksonville coming back from four games behind Tennessee, to win their last six to win the AFC South, including their winner-take-all Week 18 showdown with the Titans.

Biggest Disappointment: What a difference a year makes, where the 5-12 Rams had one of the worst hangovers on record after winning the Super Bowl.

Boy, finishing first in the NFC South after forcing out Bruce Arians as coach of the Bucs (to get Tom Brady to un-retire) for one-time Jets failure Todd Bowles really worked out great. Of course they did it by being the sub .500 division winner ever to be un .500 at 8-9 after looking in complete disarray all year.

And if the 7-10 Titans, who were 7-3 on Nov. 17 before losing their last seven games, had beaten Jacksonville last Saturday night it would have been two. I think it was emblematic of a lot of bad football played in 2022, which I attribute to fatigue and added injuries from the 17-game schedule.

The vastly improved play of Trevor Lawrence in Year 2, by the way, puts him in the lead among the vaunted QB 2021 draft class, where (as predicted by me on draft night) Brett Wilson appears headed for bust-ville with SF’s Trey Lance not far off. Justin Fields improved some, at least as a runner, but the Bears still finished with the worst record in the league. So despite his awful season, Mac Jones pulls up in second place.

Incidentally, I only said Wilson would bust because the Jets took him and history said they’d screw it up. Like with their last big QB hope, Sam Darnold, who, oh by the way, was better in Carolina than Wilson was in NYC, after being dumped for Wilson. Speaking of projecting the future for QBs, while there’s a long way to go for most of them, in Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and depending on injuries Lamar Jackson there are no fewer than seven QBs who look like Hall of Fame material if they stay on the same trajectory.

Once again Green Bay did not live up to its pre-season Super Bowl contender billing. Something done annually more on the reputation of their star QB than substance. At 8-9 they missed the playoffs again as their string of SB wannabe failures hit 12 years and counting.

Back to the Rams. Their troubles may continue if the chatter is correct that Sean McVay is really thinking of stepping away from coaching. And if he does, it’a significant historical NFL story, as while there’s still eons to go, by already having 60 wins by age 36, he could get the all-time record by the time he reaches 60 if he averaged the same 11 wins per Coach B has in 22 years with the Pats. For context, his 60 wins are 60 more than Coach B had at 36.

BTW, Belichick finished the year with 329 wins, 18 behind Don Shula’s record 347.

Another rumor going around has free agent Tom Brady reuniting with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. It’s partially being driven by owner Mark Davis wanting star power because he doesn’t like Vegas being a tourist destination for opposing fans who fill his stadium with nearly as many out-of-towners as Raiders fans.

They’d better hurry with that one as after making the 2021 playoff their 6-11 finish has Josh in peril entering Year 2, just as he was during his first HC try in Denver when he got fired mid-way through his second season.

Finally, with Lamar Jackson missing every game after Thanksgiving for the second year in a row, the old adage seems truer than ever that while running quarterbacks add an extra dimension to the offense, it’s usually not worth it because if they run a lot sooner or later they’re gonna get killed.

I’ll have a fuller autopsy of the Patriots’ season in a few weeks.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

What’s in store for 2023

Our 15th annual predictions for the year ahead.

January: A day after their disappointing season ends, Patriot Nation files a restraining order to prevent Matt Patricia from being within 200 yards of the Patriots offense or Mac Jones in 2023. Coach B hears the begging from all corners of New England and announces Patricia has been “re-assigned” to a front office role. Heavyweight boxing is heard from for the first time in decades when, during an appearance on the Hitman Hearns podcast to commemorate the 50th anniversary of George Foreman winning the Heavyweight crown in 1973, the two-time champ asks what ever happened to Heavyweight boxing. And no one knows the answer.

February: After digging themselves out from the 13th western New York blizzard in 30 days, Buffalo wins the Super Bowl over surprise NFC entry New York Giants. With the Bills a 16-point favorite, the G-Men consider bringing Tom Coughlin out of retirement to engineer another massive SB upset, but decide against it. They then lose by 17 to make the folks giving the points happy dudes. In a bid to break Michael Jordan’s record for most retirements by a GOAT, Tom Brady retires again.

March: John Henry acts like an owner and talks to the media for the first time in two years early in spring training. But he soon retreats to the bunker after being bombarded with questions about his team’s epically low 2023 expectations.

April: When the “I’m sorry, I’ll do it your way” bid fails to get Yoko back, Brady unretires again and is traded to the hometown 49ers. The Sox go into 2023 with an average age of 43 for its starting rotation. The good news is, it beats the Vegas over-under of 45 after ancient Rich Hill somehow gets another team to give him a contract leaving him to flee faster than a guy finding an open lifeboat seat as the Titanic was on the way down.

May:After 47 trade-down and trade-up moves in Rounds 1 and 2, Bill Belichick selects punter Ray Guy IV with his top pick. Tampa Bay uses an all-time record 32 pitchers in a rain-shortened six-inning dumpster fire game at Fenway that takes 6 hours and 31 minutes to play.

June: In a first ever for the gentle sport of golf, a massive on-course brawl breaks out between LIV players and old-guard PGAers to mar Day 1 of the U.S. Open. After going down early in the marquee “animal” match-up between a Tiger and a Shark, Time magazine’s “Sports Weasel of the Year” Greg Norman squeezes his way out of the bottom of the scrum to start throwing sucker punches from behind like he’s Mickey Rivers in 1976’s famed dust-up between the Sox and the Yanks. The Celtics return to the NBA Finals, but this time they win in a sweep of Golden State when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown live up to the billing. In the NBA draft, 7’4” Frenchman Victor (the victor) Wembanyama falls one letter short of Michael Olowokandi’s all-time record for having the most letters in the full name of a first overall pick.

July: Not that anyone but puckheads notices, but the Bruins join the Celtics as world champs when the ice hockey season concludes in the calendar year’s hottest month. Raffy Devers is sent packing at the trading deadline to complete the destruction of the Red Sox franchise for a raft of young players ballyhooed by the Sox brass but described by most baseball insiders as “worse than the box of rocks Chaim got for Mookie Betts.” At the presser announcing the move, Boston’s sports answer to George Santos says Devers will be his top priority to re-sign in the off-season.

August: Patricia is detained by security at Pats pre-season camp when he breaches the 200-yard boundary he’s required to maintain. He then quits in protest after learning the restraining order was actually taken out by owner Bob Kraft.

September: Patricia quickly finds work as offensive coordinator at Memorial High and vows he’ll resurrect the dormant-for-decades Crusaders offense. Mayor Joyce Craig immediately tries to overturn the move by telling (shouting at, actually) the school board in front of an overflow open SB session crowd, “Didn’t you people watch the Patriots offense last year?” For her strongly worded commendation, Craig gets an immediate 15-point bump in the polls ahead of her mayoral campaign.

October: Betts and the newly acquired Devers hit six homers off Nathan Eovaldi in Game 7 as the Dodgers top Texas to win the World Series.

November: Xander Bogaerts wins the National League MVP Award in a unanimous vote.

Despite scoring only 21 points on offense all season, Memorial somehow wins the Division 1 Football crown for the first time since Dave Croasdale was a pup. After years of hibernation, UCLA comes out of nowhere to finish in the Top 4 ranked teams in college football to set up an all-Manchester opening-round match-up (in January) between Chip Kelly’s Bruins and fellow Central alum (and Chipper’s old QB at the U) Ryan Day and Ohio State. The Manchester PD begins planning for handling lines at Billy’s Sports Bar, expected to snake past the back entrance to Elliot Hospital.

December: Devers signs with the Yankees in free agency. Mac Jones throws his 40th TD pass to help the Pats clinch a playoff spot, but resists the temptation to flip off the now adoring crowd that was calling for his head just 60 days earlier. After accepting MLB’s new Harry Frazee Team Wrecker award at a lavish gathering at New York’s No No Nanette Theater for discarding Betts, Bogaerts and Devers with astonishing speed, John Henry announces on what’s left of Twitter that he has sold the team to Elon Musk. He’s then installed by Vegas odds-makers and DraftKings as the odds-on favorite to win MLB’s Be Careful What You Wish For award in 2023.

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

2022’s biggest sports stories

We’ll end the blah sports year of 2022 with a look at its biggest stories.

World’s Cup Runneth Over: Aside from seeing the world’s grandest sports event decided by penalty kicks, which is akin to the NBA Finals being decided by a foul shooting contest, the World Cup lived up to the hype. It ended with an overtime game with uber star Lionel Messi winning what some thought might be his final game. It had underdogs advancing, and the Americans made it out of group play. Best of all, TV ratings were great, which may signal soccer’s day as a spectator sport for the U.S. masses may have arrived.

Here Comes The Judge: Seeing clean cut, non-juiced good guy Aaron Judge chase Roger Maris’s and the Babe’s cherished single-season home run record in the AL was the feel-good story of the year. It was a “he’s got it the whole way” laugh in, until the palms got sweaty the last 10 days. But No. 62 finally came and the record, most importantly to New Yorkers, stayed in the Bronx.

Astros Blast Off in World Series: After being scorned by the baseball world since it was discovered they used an elaborate sign-stealing system all throughout their championship season of 2017, the Houston Astros finally got the monkey off their back. It happened by beating the Phillies in this year’s Fall Classic four games to two. It won’t erase the taint of 2017, but it does validate that after going to four Series since 2017, they have been one of the best organizations in recent memory.

Kyrie Irving’s World Implodes: The world’s most self-indulgent, delusional athlete wrote another chapter for the “why I (sports) hate this guy” book by derailing his team, not once but twice.

The first time was railing about the man in refusing to get vaccinated during the pandemic, which ran afoul of New York City’s mandate for having to be vaxxed to be part of mass gatherings. It led to his missing 53 games, which sent NBA favorite Brooklyn into a lurch that eventually led to their being swept out of the playoffs in Round I by Boston.

The other was getting suspended eight games after refusing to back down to the league-wide storm that followed his posting support for an anti-semitic documentary.

It all cost him close to $70 million in lost NBA salary and his canceled Nike deal.

And for those who still think he’s worth the trouble, the Nets were 11-18 in the 29 games played last year and the count this year was 2-6 before he was suspended and 5-3 in the games he missed.

College Football Playoffs Expands to 12-School Format: It won’t happen until 2024 at the earliest and maybe not until 2026. But the decision by the NCAA to begin a 12-school national tournament for Division I Football was met with near unanimous approval when announced in September. Its time had come for the following reasons: (1) D-1 football is the only sport in the NCAA without a season-ending playoff. (2) With New Year’s Day Bowl games no longer the unofficial ending of college football, it needed a better ending. (3) With schools like USC and UCLA headed to the Big 10, the once recognizable conference picture is a total jumble and this gives a better focus going forward. (4) Given the success of the Men’s Basketball Tournament, is there any doubt this will be a wild success too?

Golden State Proves Me Wrong Twice: First, I said in my NBA pre-season preview that after two injury-ravaged years I didn’t see the Warriors ever returning to their championship level form. SPOILER ALERT — They did. Then when they met the Celtics in the Finals I picked the Green and — SPOILER ALERT — they didn’t, after I underestimated how good their team defense was, their coach Steve Kerr was and historically how great Steph Curry is, which became more apparent as he dominated all but one game in the series. As for the history, winning for a fourth time in eight years cements them as one of the best multi-year run winners, while Curry pushed his way into my Top 10 greatest players ever.

Hot Seat Is Warming for Coach B: Due to repeated personnel miscalculations since 2013, his usual stubbornness, the team’s most mortifying loss since getting run over by the Bears in SB 20 and a major misguided choice for offensive coordinator, things are not going well for Bill Belichick three years into the post-Tom Brady era.

It has folks wondering the once unthinkable: If Coach B does catch Don Shula’s all-time record for wins, will he do it coaching in Foxborough?

I sense a clash coming between the owner and Coach B. One where Bob Kraft demands (as I would) he get some fresh perspective to help get things back on track by going outside the organization to hire a personnel guy with a track record of drafting success and another to lead the offense and develop their highly drafted young QB in a way Matt Patricia can’t.

Will he get stubborn and say no? Then what? Another year to fix it his way, or will a refusal push Kraft into making a “do what I say or else” decision most never expected would ever happen?

Brittney Griner Comes Home: This isn’t a sports story but an international news story involving a well-known American athlete that was in the news most of the year. Given the danger posed by the arms dealer she was swapped for in the prisoner exchange, the question is did it happen because of her celebrity? Or, more likely, because she was an innocent pawn taken hostage by a hostile country in retribution for the action taken by her country in support of Ukraine after it was invaded by a power-hungry dictator?

Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.

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