Author: Dave Long

With Week 1 gone and 16 games still left to play, here are a few people worth keeping an eye on before the Pats see them at some point as the season unfolds.

Bill Belichick: After Sunday’s 20-7 loss to Miami, he remains at 321 career wins. Thus he still needs four more to move past NFL founder George Halas’s 324 into second place for all time in career coaching wins, and that would then be 26 behind the 347 of all-time leader Don Shula, a guy who made the chase a little more personal by calling Coach B “Beli-cheat” after the spy-gate nonsense of 2007. I always thought that was a jealously petty shot by Shula to diminish the Pats’ attempt at surpassing Shula’s undefeated Dolphins of 1972 by finishing 19-0.

It gets a little murky between regular wins and overall wins, however, as today’s expanded playoff format helped Coach B to a 31-19 lead over Shula in post-season wins.

All of which means the 70-year-old Belchick will need three full seasons averaging nine wins per to pass Shula, while Papa Bear hopefully will be in the rear view mirror in October. While Belichick has the expanded playoffs on his side, Halas did his damage in 40 years, Shula 33, while it’ll be just 31 for Belichick if he gets there in three years.

As for hardware, he, Halas and back in the day Packers coach Curly Lambeau are tied with six NFL title teams each, while Shula was a paltry 2-5 in NFL title games, which includes somehow losing to the Jets in SB3.

Josh McDaniels: Guys rarely get a third chance when they flunk out after being a hot-shot head coach. So he’s on a personal hot seat in Year 1 with Oakland, er, I mean Las Vegas after his fairly disastrous turn in Denver. But that was over 10 years ago and that’s a lot more time than Coach B had before coming to New England for Round 2 after he was fired by Cleveland. By the time Vegas and the Pats meet on Dec. 18, we’ll know how his second chance has started, and whether the Pats’ O has survived his departure.

Tyreek Hill: While his departure didn’t seem to bother Patrick Mahomes much as he threw for five TDs in KC’s Week 1 44-21 blowout of Phoenix, he did occupy the Patriots’ attention all afternoon in Miami’s 20-7 win with eight catches (on 12 targets) for 94 yards. That helped distracted attention from game MVP Jaylen Waddle. Why? Because speed kills, which Bill B should have addressed in the off-season by trading for a proven ready-on-Day 1 home run hitter instead of drafting a maybe one in Round 2.

Hill will show us all why twice each year until at least 2026.

Jonathan Taylor: My friend the insurance mogul Dick Lombardi was right that I missed a lot by not paying attention when he was killing it in college at Wisconsin. My loss. After last season’s 1,811 rushing yards he’s 20 shy of 3,000 yards in two seasons and already has 29 TDs and averaged 5.3 a carry. He got off the same in Sunday’s 20-20 tie in Houston with 161 (5.2 per) and a TD. They (gulp) see him and Indy on Nov. 6.

The QBs: The Patriots defense will have its hands full as they face two guys drafted ahead of Mac Jones in 2021, along with three MVP contenders.

Zach Wilson and Justin Fields: Both were thoroughly outplayed by Mac in their rookie seasons. So besides rookie mistakes and dumb injuries, not much is on their resumes yet. Wilson is already hurt and expected to miss the Jets’ first month, But Fields got off nicely by beating fellow 2021 draftee Trey Lance by throwing for two scores in Chicago’s 19-10 upset of the ’49ers.

Lamar Jackson: He comes to Foxboro in Week 3. He’s an MVP winner once already, but took Baltimore’s sure playoff mid-season spot with him when he went out for the season in Week 12 last year. This is always the fear/risk when a QB’s game revolves around running as much as his does. But when he’s healthy, watch out, as his production as a runner is what makes him so dangerous and fun to watch.

Aaron Rodgers: Not a huge fan, but there’s no denying how good the reigning MVP is in the regular season. And now that the Green Bay brass caved to his “trade me or else” snit, they’ll see him in Week 4 at GB.

Josh Allen: All I can say about him is, I was right after being all in on him despite an up and down rookie year, and all the local media geniuses (Michael Felger, Tony Mazz and the Globe’s Ben Volin) mocking him as a bust during his early years were dead wrong. He’s a beast who crushed NE twice last year and who started the same way last Thursday night as Buffalo thumped the defending champs to give more credence to him as my pick for MVP.

Sean McVay: They won’t see him, but if you’re looking for who has the best chance to eventually pass Shula or Belichick’s final total, look no further. Hired at 31, he’s got an eight-year head start on Coach B and had 55 wins in his first five seasons to Coach B’s 36. He made his first SB in Year 3 and got his first SB win in Year 5. For BB both came in Year 7. Even his coaching tree is better. Zac Taylor got Cincy to the SB in Year 3 and Matt LaFleur is 39-10 in three years with GB while Bill’s assistants have mostly failed as head coaches.

Interestingly the guy with NFL best winning percentage (.759) also started at a really young age. John Madden was just 33 when Al Davis hired him to coach Oakland in 1969.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].

Your New England Patriots kick off 2022 on Sunday in Miami. It’s traditionally a house of horrors when they do it during the blast furnace conditions of playing in South Florida before October arrives, so history gives a guide to how things may start out — which may be the clearest picture we have for what lies ahead. If I were asked to give one word to describe my outlook for 2022, “optimistic” is not the one I’d choose.

In fact, after seeing what I saw in three pre-season games and hearing daily reports from camp of continuing confusion in the new offense, I can’t honestly even use “hopeful.” So I guess it’s “I-dunno,” if that can count as one word.

Seasons usually come down to one or two X-factors, like how a new QB like Matt Ryan gels with his new team in Indy, or how healthy a team can remain. But with these Patriots it’s the opposite, as from the O-line to the new highly questionable coaching assignments nearly the entire team is an X-factor.

So here’s what I considered while trying to predict how it will unfold.

Who Do I Have Faith In?

Coach B: After losing his longtime offensive coordinator and several other offensive coaches and altering the offensive scheme for some reason, things seem pretty disjointed. But he always seems to figure it out. I think he’ll do it again this time, with one of the things being realizing he’ll have to take over play calling early on.

Mac Jones: He wasn’t very good in two pre-season stints, where most of his attempts were rushed dink and dunks that were mainly the result of protection breaking down — a big worry at the moment. But if they get that fixed he’ll take a step forward. If not, goodbye to making the playoffs.

Matthew Judon: He was great for 14 games, then got Covid and disappeared. My guess is that doesn’t happen again. Big year ahead.

Kyle Dugger: After a solid Year 2, he’s preparing to take over as leader of the defense from Devin McCourty.

Who Don’t I Have Faith In?

Offensive Play Calling: I stated my case a few weeks ago about how Matt Patricia’s ’fraidy-cat, bend-but-don’t-break style as the DC (which immediately got better with the same personnel when Brian Flores took over in 2018) drove me crazy. And it’ll be worse if he’s calling plays for the offense. Let’s just say I’m not a fan.

Who Am I Wondering About?

Offensive Line: Matty P’s official position is the O-line coach. So far it’s been a disaster both running and passing. Better hope he can fix it because this team goes nowhere if it can’t protect Mac and run the ball.

10 Rookies Make the Team: It’s astonishing 10 rookies made the cut down roster. But is it a tip of the cap to the brass for a second straight productive draft, or that they lacked dependable depth overall? If the guys can play, it makes them younger, faster and with the bonus of helping with the salary cap going forward. But 10 rookies makes you wonder if they’ll lack critical experience in times when it usually counts most. So it’s wait and see.

Who/What Am I Hopeful Over?

Return Game: Some people think this doesn’t matter, but I think it does. It was always a factor, from the early days with Troy Brown returning two punts for TD’s in 2001, to how the Edelman/Amendola twosome in the punt return game was a factor when they went to four SB’s in five years between 2014 and 2018. Ditto with the spark and anticipation Cordarrelle Patterson gave on kickoffs in 2018. But since all three left, the return game has been dismal besides a lucky six-game spurt by Gunner Olszewski.

But, even with the fumble-laden era of the over-hyped Cyrus Jones in my memory, I’m curious about rookies Jack Jones, Marcus Jones and Pierre Strong because they have drafted speed and guys with a track record of taking kicks and punts back for scores in college. Given their holes, they need all the field position help they can get from special teams. So I’ll use that word “hopeful” here.

Secondary: Two years ago they had the best secondary in football before Bill screwed it up by not signing JC Jackson early when he was giving out free agent cash to seemingly every stiff in the league and waited too long to trade Stephon Gilmore to get anything of value. As a result, the safeties are solid and deep. But with no elite corner and rookies likely in the mix it’s going to be a scary area until they prove otherwise.

Receiver Room: It’s not that I don’t like the DeVante Parker acquisition, Jakobi Meyer, Kendrick Bourne or Hunter Henry. It’s just that they need/needed to get a ready-on-Day 1 home run hitter to make everyone better. With that not here, they will need major improvement over 2021 from Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith to give Mac the extra help he needs.

Schedule: Not overly hard, but not easy. They face six 2021 playoff teams and Buffalo is the only 2021 first-place finisher they play. Having said that, three of their first four are on the road, including at Green Bay, and they have nine games on the road and just eight at home.

AFC East: The Jets are the Jets and starting out with 112-year-old Joe Flacco at QB. And until proven otherwise, despite their impressive wideout talent, Miami will find a way to screw something up. Buffalo is not only the cream of the division, they’re my prediction to win the Super Bowl as well.

Prediction:It’s a long way from the good old days when you could predict/guarantee 12 wins before the schedule came out

Now, it’s 9-8 and fighting for a wild card berth till the end.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].

It’s been a crappy sports summer, hasn’t it? Even with the Celtics season lasting until June.

That’s because with Boston basically out of it since April 15 and no one doing anything memorable baseball’s been a complete dud.

So I’ve taken note of individuals over teams more than usual. Here are a few who got my attention.

James White: I mentioned when he retired how reliable and clutch he was. But what I didn’t detail was his role in his greatest game, the astonishing comeback win over Atlanta in SB 51. It was 28-3 right before he started the comeback with a short TD reception from TB-12 with 2:06 left in the third quarter. His next TD (after the PAT) tied it with 53 seconds left. Then came the game winner when he fought his way into the end zone for the win in OT. Overall he had 14 catches for 120 yards, 6 runs for 29 more, 3 TD’s and the 2-point conversion that got them to 8 down with 5:50 to play. It is among the five greatest games ever played by a Patriot.

Steph Curry: I knew he was good, but not that good I guess. I hate the way he flops on almost every shot, but he sliced and diced the Celtics so thoroughly in the Finals they should make Marcus Smart give back his Defensive Player of the Year award. I don’t like to overreact to one great series, but four titles in, I’m ready to say he belongs in the NBA’s all-time Top 10, though I’m not sure who to kick out.

Xander Bogaerts: Get your last looks over the final month of 2022. In his continuing zeal to become the 21st century’s answer to Harry Frazee, Chaim Bloom will let the face of the franchise (and its greatest ever shortstop) walk in free agency this winter, a move that should be on Chaim’s baseball tombstone when it’s all said and done.

Jarren Duran: A year ago he was the next big thing, a Top 100 prospect with blazing speed and emerging power ticketed for center field and a spot at the top of the order for years. However, in the 18 months since, he’s struggled to hit .218 over 300 major league at-bats before being demoted to AAA last week. His problems are made worse by his having the worst instincts of a Sox outfielder since Mike Greenwell was a collision waiting to happen on any ball hit into the gap. This puts him at a career crossroads going into spring training and makes him the latest poster boy for why you should never listen to spring training chatter that makes young guys out to be a lot more than they turn out to be.

Curt Schilling: I was almost beginning to feel sorry for the Red Sox alum over the way his final year of Hall of Fame eligibility ended with him just short but going backward in the vote. And then I was reminded last week why it happened. It was his tone-deaf tweet in opposition to the federal government forgiving some student loans. It’s OK to be against it if you have your reasons. Heck, I’m against it, I think. But when his objection came with his usual “I’m smarter than you” snark after he received, and blew, a free $75 million loan guarantee from the State of Rhode Island because of his celebrity status, I said, oh yeah, now I remember. Twitter wasn’t so kind in unleashing an avalanche of response to his utter hypocrisy and tone.

Steve Kerr: After watching him at work in the NBA Finals I think I’ve been under-rating Kerr all these years. And it was not just his decision-making. It was the Golden State defense. While Curry was the straw that stirred the drink, the surprising (to me) GS defense was close behind, especially the way it closed so quickly to the corner to render Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard useless on offense and how it gang tackled its Big 3 on drives to the rim and stifled them in half court O. That along with its usual offensive efficiency made it obvious what a good job Kerr does.

Steve Nash: For once an owner backed his coach over a star player as Nets owner Joe Tsai did during Kevin Durant’s angry summer. Now the question is how do you coach a team after your star has publicly demanded you be fired? We’ll soon find out.

Lenny Dawson: He died last week at 87 after long ago being the epitome of the “AFL players can’t play in today’s NFL” talking point of the 1960s after flunking out with the Steelers and Browns a few years after going one pick before the great Jim Brown in the 1957 NFL draft. But Dawson really just needed the opportunity the upstart AFL gave guys like him. His Dallas Texans (soon to be the KC Chiefs) won the AFL title in 1962 and again in 1966 when they lost in the first Super Bowl. He was back three years later when KC croaked the supposedly invincible 12-2 Vikings 23-7 in SB 4. It was an even more shocking win for NFL fans to swallow than the Jets’ titanic upset of the Colts in SB 3, because one win can be a fluke, but another the next year said something about the AFL’s overall strength. And that was a blow to NFL egos.

I’ll buy that Joe Namath was its most important player. But Joe Willie was not the All-time AFL quarterback as he was voted. Dawson was robbed. He was in the league longer, won more and had far better stats, along with the same SB ring and MVP award Namath won. So I see Dawson’s legacy as being a symbol of where the league started and how it ended up in a draw with the omnipotent NFL 10 years later. RIP Lenny D.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].

News Item: LIV Making Waves In Golf World

I was around in the early days of the AFL and for the birth of both the ABA and USFL, so I get what the players who’ve left the PGA to join LIV Golf are doing. They’re grabbing the incredible money being thrown their way, which is fine if you can block out who is behind where it’s coming from and why they’re doing it. Regardless of that, it brings to mind two other points to me.

First, the players grabbing the cash, as is generally the case in the large me-first, greed-infested segment of our culture, want it both ways. They want LIV money and to play in PGA-sponsored events like the FedEx Cup playoffs. And several have sued the PGA for restraining trade by preventing them from playing in their events. I’m not an antitrust lawyer and I don’t play one on TV, but that’s like taking ABA money and still wanting to play in the NBA too. Doesn’t work that way. Who blames the PGA for saying, “Hey, pal, you can’t play in our events because you work for a rival business that’s trying to take money out of our pockets”?

Second, maybe it’s because it’s just golf or maybe it’s that I’ve been around long enough to see the real fun of the ABA, AFL and USFL, not to mention the XFL, but my attitude for LIV is “who cares?” While I root for certain guys at times, it’s only when they are playing in the tourney of the day. If not, so what? That’s because I watch golf for the events or the courses they’re playing, like Pebble Beach, and not for specific players.

Bottom Line: Keep them out of all four majors to make it hurt until the Saudi money eventually dries up and LIV folds.

News Item: Pats After Two Games

I love the pre-season pronouncements about how a team or a rookie looks in August. Like the Boston Globe’s Tara Sullivan saying the Patriots’ defense “is looking as stingy as ever” after two meaningless games. First, I guess she missed those last two games vs. Buffalo in 2021; I don’t know about “stingy as ever.” Second, they’ve played two series against a starting NFL QB, so how can you tell anything? Especially since Daniel Jones took the G-Men 68 yards down the field for a FG on his first series.

Then we’ve got the ultimate fan boy writer, Concord Monitor alum Chad Finn, saying in the Globe that second-round pick Tyquan Thornton should get the benefit of the doubt from skeptics after scoring a TD in Game 1. Oh, yeah, let’s ignore 18 years of futility between 2003 and 2021 in drafting wide receivers because a guy scored a preseason TD. I’m not saying Thornton is going to be good or bad; I haven’t seen enough of him against anyone, let alone face to face with a guy like Stephon Gilmore. And with him suffering a collarbone injury that could have him missing up to eight weeks his start now is a lot closer to N’Keal Harry than Deion Branch.

Bottom Line: Come see me in October. You rarely can tell much until then.

News Item: Judge Challenges Maris And The Babe

Steroid-tainted Barry Bonds holds the official record for homers in a season at 73, so this is more of a New York thing, but with Aaron Judge on pace to hit 61, all eyes in NYC will be on him as he tries to take the Yankees homer record from Babe Ruth and Roger Maris. While Maris holds the record with 61, many didn’t recognize that, in 1961, he did it in the new 162-game season whereas Ruth hit his 60 in 154 games.

Bottom Line: I’m a “records are made to be broken” kind of guy, so I’m pulling for Judge to do it even if it takes a bit of Yankees lore with it Either way, it should be a nostalgic final month in the Bronx.

News Item: How To End Brooklyn Saga

Enough already with the unending Kevin Durant-Brooklyn trade-me standoff. If I’m Brooklyn owner Joe Tsai I tell Durant we’re not trading you unless we get our price (which they have little chance of getting), so sit out. I’m worth $10 billion, so even losing $100 million is chump change. On the other hand, if you sit out for the three years left on your contract you’ll be coming back at 37 after missing 4.5 of the last six seasons. So good luck with that.

As for Kyrie Irving, that no one wants him is validation for me saying since 2017 he’s not as good as people think and even if he were, a guy who takes it all for granted ain’t worth the trouble.

Bottom Line: Stop letting players try to dictate what you do. Make them put up or shut up.

KD loves to play, so he’ll come back. As for Kyrie, his value will be highest at the trade deadline after somebody gets hurt on a contender and they’re desperate for help.

News Item: Browns Get Stuffed on Watson

Given his unrepentant attitude throughout, even with a $5 million fine and an 11-game suspension Deshaun Watson got off easy for what he did. But to some degree Roger the Dodger’s hands were tied after the arbiter tied her lighter ruling to the weak consequences various owners got for their own behaviors.

Bottom Line: Admittedly an after-the-fact bottom line. But I said last spring the Browns should hold on to Baker Mayfield. If they had, they wouldn’t be scrambling to find a QB in late August because sulking through the season wouldn’t be smart for a guy needing a reboot ahead of being a free agent in 2023. So he was a perfect fit for trying to prevent their season from going down the drain.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].

Another week with too much going on for a once a week column.

With Chaim Bloom’s baseball visions sending fan interest into a death spiral, will the much bigger deal made over David Ortiz entering the Baseball Hall of Fame than when Richard Seymour went into the Pro Football Hall two weeks later be the last time the Red Sox will command center stage for a long time?

Sorry, I don’t get what the hoo-ha was over Washington’s Juan Soto being traded to San Diego at the deadline to “tip the balance of power” in the NL West. Really? When was the last time a .246 hitter did that?

Sports 101: An actual trade that did came in 1987 when Detroit gave up a no-name prospect to get veteran Doyle Alexander. Hethen went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts to help them come from way back to win the AL East in 1987. Name the future Hall of Fame hurler they gave up to get Doyle.

Beyond that, how old are the people calling the Soto deal the biggest ever? 14? Here are two trade deadline deals I guarantee Soto won’t top.

In 1964 Lou Brock got traded at the deadline to spark the languishing Cardinals to win the World Series four months later. And all he did after that was accumulate 3,000 hits and become the all-time leader in stolen bases.

In 1977 300-game winner and Mets icon Tom Seaver was traded in his prime to Cincy. Think if they made it into a movie people would believe the 2022 Chris Sale saga, which supposedly ended by him falling off his bike and breaking his wrist? It’s a story with an ending many local media types are highly skeptical about. It makes the ledger for the first three years of Sale’s five-year deal signed in spring of 2020 5 wins, 11 starts and two losses for $90 million.

Congratulations to ESPN for getting it right for once in ranking Jimmy Brown as its GOAT for running backs. Ditto for Barry Sanders as No. 2 and Walter Payton third. Well done.

Shouldn’t Tom Brady be fined big for his role in the Miami tampering plot with owner Steve Ross and U of Michigan buddy/minority Dolphins owner Bruce Beal to get him out of his Tampa Bay contract to become the Dolphins QB?

And with that dishonesty added to the ledger with him not mentioning anyone in Foxboro when he retired as part of the phony plot, the halo has certainly descended on TB-12 around here.

Add another entry to Kyrie Irving’s “Is This Guy For Real?” file, from his contract extension talks where two of the items he wanted in his new contract, according to Ric Bucher’s On the Ball podcast, were that he only had to play 60 games a year and that he didn’t have to play “inhumanely” in games on back-to-back nights. He later refuted it in a bizarre rant on Twitter that contained phrases like shifting “paradigms” apparently to show how deep his intellect is.

Speaking of the tediously unending Nets saga, I think I’d do the deal for him if the price was Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and a first-round pick because it let Jayson Tatum just play and put the leadership burden on the more suited for it Durant.

But I’d rather see them send Brown and Grant Williams to Cleveland for Evan Mobley, point guard Darius Garland and taking on Kevin Love’s onerous but expiring $30 million contract. That would hurt them a little defensively but give them a better and bigger three-man rotation among the bigs, deliver the eventual replacement for 37-year-old Al Horford, a real point guard in Garland and with Horford’s expiring deal, $60 million to spend on free agents next summer.

Though if I were Cleveland I wouldn’t do it.

Sports 101 Answer: The prospect Detroit gave up for Alexander was John Smoltz, who went on to win a Cy Young, save an all-time single season record 55 games and win 213 games with Atlanta on his way to the Hall.

Sports 102: Name the Hall of Famer then major Dodgers prospect Doyle Alexander was traded for at the start of his career in December 1971.

One more thing on Soto. I get that he’s just 23 and bursting with potential. But he’s had a full season when he hit over .300, and another when he hit .351 in 46 games. Has never hit more than 32 homers or driven in more than 110 in six seasons.

At 23 it was 46/127/.356 for Albert Pujols. By his sixth season Junior Griffey had two 49-homer seasons and three 100-plus-RBI seasons already. In his fourth season Willie Mays was MVP for going 51/127/.319. In his fifth season Mickey Mantle won the triple crown and MVP for his 52/130/.353 submission.

Terrific prospect, likely bright future, but let’s pump the brakes on Soto because he hasn’t been as good as any of the people mentioned above by 23 or their sixth season.

Sports 102 Answer: The highly touted Alexander was the key guy Baltimore got back in a six-player deal that sent the great Frank Robinson to the Dodgers.

With other guys around the league going down with big injuries I probably should just be happy it didn’t happen here. But beyond the eight catches for 99-yard effort to support my belief Kristian Wilkerson is better than the Patriots seem to think, I don’t know what I got from last week’s pre-season game vs. the G-Men.

Finally a tip of the cap to James White at his retirement. He was as reliable as they come, clutch when it mattered most and with six carries for 29 yards, 14 catches for 110 yards and three TDs spectacular in the greatest Super Bowl comeback ever. A true Patriot if there ever was one. Thanks for the memories and best of luck as you ride off into retirement.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].

The Patriots are back at work getting ready for the 2022 opener. They do so with a host of big question marks brought on by (a) a disastrous final month of 2021, which included getting annihilated twice by Josh Allen and Buffalo, (b) a number of high-profile defensive departures, (c) losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, coupled with the curious “Bill being Bill” decision to not name a replacement, and (d) low expectations for not much more than a one done in the wildcard playoff round.

So with that as the backdrop, here’s what to keep an eye on this month.

Biggest Strength

Running Game: Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson give them thump on the inside and burst to run outside. That will help the play action passing and let them get it more often on third and short, which is the key to having long drives.

Biggest Questions

Who’s Calling The Plays: Since I was no fan of Matt Patricia during his overly cautions, strategy-deficient reign as defensive coordinator, and he was a disaster as HC in Detroit, it’s distressing to hear Matty P will be calling the plays on offense. Made worse by an apparent scrapping of a big part of the playbook to create unnecessary confusion for QB Mac Jones.

Enough at Wideout: With the damage Randy Moss caused 2007 opponents in mind, I wanted Coach B to use his top pick and whatever else was needed to trade for a speed burning No. 1 receiver (and pay him) the way Philly did with AJ Brown. Instead he used that pick on an OL most thought he could get in Round 3 and spent the No. 2 on outside burner Tyquan Thornton of Baylor. Like the sentiment, but given the drafting record at the position he’s already in prove it mode.

So what do they have? DeVante Parker is a nice addition, but he’s a No. 2 and has been injury-prone in a seven-year career with just one 1,000-receiving-yards season. After that are Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. Both solid, but they’re third-line guys who would be much more dangerous if they had a true No. 1. Finally there’s the speed guy Nelson Agholor, who I’ll get to later. If Parker can stay healthy they’re better, but they’re in a division with Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs, so they should have traded for the burner.

The Secondary: They’ve gone from the best secondary in football two years ago to a giant question mark thanks to Coach B fiddling while Rome burned. Instead of trading Stephon Gilmore for value ahead of 2021 (rather than the bag of beans he got doing it at mid-season) and spending the money to give JC Jackson an early extension, he walked when it got too expensive for Bill. So now it’s mix and match with retreads and rookies at the corners. Not sure who it could be, but someone has to come through or Mac will need to score 40 a game to win.

The Young Linebackers: With Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins gone, opportunity abounds for all the linebackers they’ve drafted in the last three years. And the question is, can those guys do the job?

Big Years Needed

Matthew Judon: He had 12.5 sacks in his first 13 games. But he got Covid in Week 14 and was MIA after that as the D fell apart. They need a full season this year.

Mac Jones: The numbers show he was better in his rookie year than Tom Brady was in 2019. That was good enough for me. Now he needs to be more in command and take the next step up. Plus with Matty P calling the plays, I’m hoping for a lot more audibles.

Guys to Watch

Kyle Dugger: With Devin McCourty nearing the end, the defense needs the next leader. After a solid Year 2 he’s the guy the brass wants that to be that guy.

Josh Uche: We’ve been hearing about his pass rush potential for two years. So in the put-up-or-shut-up year it’s time to find out if he can be the second edge rusher they need

Rhamondre Stevenson: I thought by the end of the year he was even better than Harris, as his acceleration through the hole and elusiveness in the open made big gains more likely. Plus he can catch, so I’m expecting a jump up in production.

Cole Strange: He can’t be a whiff. Because their top draft pick is stepping into a big hole at left guard and with an offense built on a solid running game and led by a young QB who needs to be protected, he needs to be as good asLogan Mankins and Joe Thuney were from the jump.

Marcus Jones: Except for a four-game stretch in 2020 byGunner Olszewski, who seemed more interested in running to contact than away from it, the return game has been awful since Cordarrelle Patterson left town. We’ve been burned (Cyrus Jones) by expectations from big college stats. But the No. 3 pick had four return TD’s last year. So it will be very helpful if he can be as dangerous here.

Improvement Needed

Jonnu Smith: Let’s just say he was an expensive bust a year ago. Thus while Hunter Henry was fine, the two tight end games never materialized. That needs to change and he needs to be much better.

Nelson Agholor: After a disappointing 37-catch three-TD season he needs to do a lot more to justify the expense. And that would have a bigger impact downhill, because if his speed can be a regular factor, it helps everyone else be better.

The X-Factor: The health of the re-shuffled offensive line where flip-flopped tackles Trent Williams and Isaiah Wynn both have injury histories. With not much depth they need them to stay healthy.

We’ll check back in a month for the answers.

Email Dave Long at [email protected].