After a week off to recharge the batteries and give injuries more time to heal, the Patriots begin the second half of their season vs. the J-e-t-s Jets, Jets, Jets at home on Sunday in Foxborough.
Before they do that, here’s a look at some of the biggest first happenings and what lies ahead.
MVP Defense — Matthew Judon: With a league–leading 11.5 sacks Judon has been the overall MVP, best Patriots edge rusher since Andre Tippett and in the conversation for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
MVP Offense — Rhamondre Stevenson: A better way to say it might be he is the offense, with a little help from the dependableJakobi Meyers.He’s been a three-down back who can catch it out of the backfield when it matters who with 618 yards and 35 catches is on pace for a 1,200-yard, 66-catch season.
Stat Sheet — Turnovers: The defense has created a second best in the NFL 17 turnovers, which is great. What’s not is the 29th worst 17 TOs committed by the offense. That needs to be cleaned up.
Most Damaging injury — David Andrews: If you asked for a prediction before the season, you’d say Mac if you knew he’d miss three games. But since the O got better when he was out that’s not the case. It was the concussion suffered by center because the O-line turned into mush in the two games he missed.
Wally Pipp Award: Given how Bailey Zappe played when he got a chance you’d think it was Mac. But while I felt it coming as far back as last December, Damien Harris’s pulled hamstring opened the door for Stevenson and he ran through it. However, given how solid Harris is and smart it is to play two backs he won’t get totally pipped but the biggest minutes now go to Stevenson.
Most Idiotic Media Story, So Far At Least: The one where SI.com disscussed, after the Bears loss, the pros and cons of trading Mac Jones. No wonder they’re going out of business.
Better Than Expected: I was wrong and Coach B was right for playing the J.C. Jackson departure correctly. I said he should’ve signed him early after 2021 when handing out all that free agent money. Instead, the now out for the season Jackson has not been missed at all. Jalen Mills has outperformed expectations and the rookie Jack Jones has been solid, while the entire group back there has been a major plus, in part for their third-best 11 interceptions.
Worse Than Expected — Toss-up: It goes to the O-line because their shortcomings are having a negative impact on the unexpected struggles of Mac Jones. The pass protection has been inconsistent at best, shoddy at worst, they are constantly being penalized to put the O behind in down and distance, Trent Brown is a couple of time zones shy of the dominant guy he was in 2018 before going to the Raiders and Isaiah Wynn has been downright awful.
So What’s The Story With Mac? He has not played close to what he did a year ago. Especially when throwing downfield. We could point to his protection, but Bailey Zappe looked far more comfortable and was better doing it in his time with the same line in his three-game stint. So the question I have is what is the root cause for the regression? Some say he’s locking on receivers. That could be a part of it, but it seems deeper than just that. I thought the media yakking about his issues in camp was an overreaction. But they started on Day 1 and given where we are now, it seems they were right. Which points to the possible reasons: (1) instilling a new offense; (2) losing the guidance of Josh McDaniels and QB coach Mick Lombardi; (3) the decision to put the offense’s development and play calling in the offensively inexperienced hands of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge; (4) an inability by Mac to adapt to change; (5) the disappearance of the play action passing game; (6) he’s developed bad habits like the locking-on thing.
It’s likely all of it, along with the o-line and receiving corps (outside of Meyers and Stevenson) inconsistency. But again Zappe played with the same guys and was better. But having said that I wonder if the problems would be as deep if a more experienced offensive teacher/mentor was here.
Going Forward
The Schedule: It is a bear the rest of the way with the opposition having a combined record of 40-30. Four of their eight games are against teams ahead of them in the playoff fight along with 8-1 Minnesota on the road. They start with the Jets, Vikings and Buffalo, then close with the Bengals and vs. Miami and Buffalo at home. They probably need to go 5-3, which won’t be easy.
Loss That Could Bite Them — Da Bears: Given that Chicago’s one win in the last seven was that Monday night debacle in Foxborough, it’s safe to say the spotlight will be on that if the Pats fall a game short of a playoff berth. And while the suddenly blossoming Bears offense has scored 29, it should be particularly galling for Patriot Nation for how lethargic the defense was from the first snap to the last. I rarely boo, but I did for that non-effort. BOOOO!
What To Expect: The unacceptable non-effort vs. Chicago aside, I think the defense will be solid going forward. But they will not beat Buffalo or Miami scoring 17 points against them. So it comes down to can the offensive line get it together and what they get from Mac, or Zappe in the unlikely event a change is made, at QB. The good news is, with four games left vs. division opponents, their fate is in their hands in the suddenly wide open AFC East.
Email Dave Long at [email protected].