Author: Dave Long

The start of the new NFL year is two weeks away when free agent signings begin. With $65 million to spend, the Patriots are likely to be very active to retool to get back in the playoff hunt, a task made more difficult these days playing in the vastly improved AFC East, where Buffalo is now the top dog, Miami is a QB away from SB contention and even the Jets, who have their history of incompetence to overcome, are a concern since they have the second overall pick and $73 million in cap room.

Over the next two weeks we’ll look at what they need to do to recover from last year’s 7-9 debacle. First we’ll concern ourselves with the biggest question of the off season — who will the starting quarterback be in 2021? — and the obstacles they’ll face answering that question during an unprecedented off season of turbulence at the quarterback position.

The QB Derby: If Drew Brees retires as expected the new year had as many as 18 teams looking for an upgrade to make the competition for the right QB intense. Sensing that, the Rams struck first by sending their starter Jared Goff and two first-round picks and a third to get Matthew Stafford from Detroit. With Phillip Rivers retired, Indy then took the Carson Wentz headache off Philly’s hands for conditional second- and third-round picks, a big gamble for a talented but trending down hard-to-coach crybaby with a $145 million contract about to kick in. Both moves show how valved quarterbacks are and that desperate teams will vastly overpay to get one.

So with 16 teams left things could get wacky quickly. That sense of urgency will also leak into the draft, where five quarterbacks could be taken in the first 10 picks, worthy or not. In short, the off season will be a game of musical chairs for quarterbacks. Here are the options.

Draft a QB: This option brings the uncertainty of betting on a guy who’s never played in the league and at a very high cost if you trade up to get the right one along with the learning curve that goes with it. However, if you hit, you pay your starter $5 million per for five years instead of $30 million to $40 million, and that savings can be invested elsewhere.

Who to Draft: With the 15th pick, Alabama’s Mac Jones is the best probable for the Pats. I like three things about him. (1) He’s got a quick release. (2) His 77.4 percent completion rate for 41 TD passes says he’s accurate. (3) He makes good, quick decisions, evidenced by throwing just four picks. The X-factor: How much are his gaudy numbers due to the spectacular first-round talent around him? Though I’m confident saying this: Jones is a lot better than his Bama predecessor Tua Tagovailoa.

Likely Out of Their Reach: The top two on the market are Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson, who want out of Houston and Seattle. Both are better than Stafford and make big money, so they’ll wipe out the Patriots’ next three drafts and a large chunk of their salary cap space to prevent the haul most are hoping for. Since he’s 26 I might do it for Watson, but no one else.

Aaron Rodgers: Doesn’t seem likely he’ll move for a million reasons. But with GB drafting a QB last year, stranger things have happened. But even if he leaves it’ll likely be west for a team ready to win, like SF, which would put Jimmy Garoppolo in play.

Jimmy G: The consensus pick in the cheap seats. Pros: He knows the system, Bill knows what he can do and he took the Niners to the Super Bowl just two years ago. Con: He’s injury prone, a big negative.

Dak Prescott: I’m not a Dak guy. First because everything from their QB’s to the dance team is overrated in Dallas. Second, he’s a game manager who wants $40 million per. Are you kidding me? Finally, it would break my friend George Copadis’ heart to see his beloved Cowboys let their latest vastly overrated star leave Jerry’s house.

Matt Ryan:At best he’s a short-term solution, so they’d still have to draft a QB. Plus salary cap implications in Atlanta will probably prevent him from leaving. So forget about him.

Marcus Mariota:Pro: He flourished in Chip Kelly’s system at Oregon. So maybe that’s what he is, a system QB in search of the right system. Con: He flunked out in Tennessee, who got immediately better after he was replaced by Dolphins flunk-out Ryan Tannehill.

Sam Darnold: Tannehill got better once he got away from Adam Gase in Miami. Could that be the same for Darnold? Nope. He’s just the latest — Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley — overrated QB to come out of USC.

Jameis Winston: He’s got talent, but he threw 30 picks with Tampa Bay in 2019 and we know how much Coach B hates turnovers. But he also threw for 5,000 yards and 31 TD passes that year. He’s a long shot, but turning him into the productively efficient QB he wasn’t under Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay would give a new apples-and-apples dynamic to the “Was it Tom or Bill?” debate.

Cam Newton: Most don’t want this to happen. But Coach B may not be one of them. The question is, how much did joining the team late amid the Covid-hampered training environment play into his issues and did he suffer from lack of weapons as Brady did in 2019? I think it’s 50-50 he’s back,

Preferences: (1) Keep Newton and draft a QB, where Cam eventually evolves into a wildcat, short yardage and goal line scoring option. (2) If you go new, take the system guy, Mariota. Though if Coach B finds a way to somehow make a Jimmy G deal to include soon to be free agent tight end George Kittle, do it.

Following their latest loss, where they blew a 20-plus-point lead again, the 15-15 Celtics are straddling a line between their season becoming a huge disappointment and a total catastrophe. A wild overstatement? Maybe, but we’re now five weeks into a stretch of 11 losses in 19 games and it’s not like it’s been an incredibly rough stretch in the schedule. It started with a horrid mail-it-in 105-75 loss to the Knicks, which was followed by losses to bottom-dwellers Detroit, Washington, Sacramento, Atlanta and New Orleans on Sunday. So it’s beyond being just a funk. Shockingly it leaves them just a half game ahead of the surprising Knicks, and I’m pretty sure “catastrophe”would be the No. 1 answer if this were an episode of Family Feud and a family of green-teamers were asked what one word would best sum up finishing behind the Knickerbockers this year.

Now I’m more into fixing things than second guessing, so here’s a look at the issues and some suggestions for fixing the problem.

The Team Is Playing Dead: They have no emotion. Especially with Marcus Smart out. All teams need a guy who gets in people’s faces when they don’t play hard, they make dumb mistakes or they just don’t care enough about winning and losing. Some do it by scaring guys like MJ or KG, some with a stern leadership demeanor like LBJ. Others are just a pain in the butt like Draymond Green. But however it’s done every team needs it and they don’t have a guy like that.

Brad Stevens: I’m not a blame-the-coach-for-everything kind of guy. But I admit I have Brad fatigue for two reasons.

They Reflect His Placid Demeanor: Some coaches are suited for one kind of situation and not for others, like Bill Fitch with the Celtics in the ’80s. His drill sergeant approach was perfect for the young team Larry Bird joined as a rookie, which needed to learn how to win. But his shrill, never satisfied voice was eventually tuned out when those lessons were learned. In came the “treat them like they know what they’re doing” KC Jones and the guys responded by winning two titles. That may be the case here in reverse. This passive group needs a guy to drive them because they’re too comfortable with losses.

He’s Too In Love With The 3-Ball:It’s why they blow so many big leads. Once the 3’s stop falling, they have few other options to look for help as the big leads melt away, as happened on Sunday.

Jayson Tatum: I know how talented he is and he’s a good kid who puts in the work to improve. But I want more. I know it’s not his way, but the best player has got to develop a what-the-blank-are-you-doing way when needed, and until he does he’s not a Top 10 player or the leader they need.

The 3-Ball Doesn’t Always Fall: I know it’s a 3-ball league and what the math says about taking 3’s over 2’s. But sorry, anyone who has ever played knows that sometimes long-distance shots hit dry spells. Thus teams also need scoring down low, where the percentage is higher and you get foul shots. You rarely get the latter on 3-balls unless you have a dope covering you. Case in point was Sunday, when after being down 21, instead of the Pelicans chucking up more 3’s, they posted up 280-pound Zion Williamson or gave it to him at the foul line for drives, where he just overpowered everyone, leading to easy buckets and trips to the line for old-time three-point plays. That and the sudden appearance of defense was why they turned that game around. Having a really dependable block scorer, like, I don’t know, Joel Embiid also forces weakside defenders to double team them, which gives shooters more time/room to launch.

C’s Needs Restructuring:I don’t know what Brian Scalabrine is smoking, but the biggest need is not another scoring wing like Harrison Barnes. It’s changing the formula from wing scoring dominance to one that complements the 3-ball with reliable scoring from the block.As much as I love the grit of Daniel Theis, that’s not him. So a trade is needed. But if they want to wait a bit, give Robert Williams 30 minutes a game to see if he can do some of that.

The General Manager: Earth to Danny, what are you waiting for? Stop trying to get a steal every time you make a trade like in the Gordon Hayward-for-Myles Turner fiasco. I’m not in love with Turner, but taking only him in that deal instead of holding out for more would have filled the need to get bigger up front and provided a stretch four who blocks shots too. He also could have been flipped later for a better fit. Rome is burning. Stop fiddling (and diddling) and get what is needed.

The Bench Needs Scoring:Short term, I’d swap Payton Pritchard and Kemba, to give the second unit a much-needed dynamic scorer. However, any major deal will likely need Kemba as the bait to make that happen, so it must give the C’s a proven bench scorer back, like Orlando’s Terrence Ross.

Top Trade Target: I wanted Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic as the free agent replacement the summer Al Horford and Kyrie Irving defected. The problem is that he’s blossomed into a 24 and 11 guy so he’ll cost a lot more. Why would Orlando move him? Maybe after falling out of it again they’ll want to build around their younger players and know his trade value will never be higher. He’ll cost future picks, recent top picks and likely the Time Lord, unless Kemba goes to a third team needing a veteran presence with a lot of draft capital to send their way like New Orleans.

Following their latest loss, where they blew a 20-plus-point lead again, the 15-15 Celtics are straddling a line between their season becoming a huge disappointment and a total catastrophe. A wild overstatement? Maybe, but we’re now five weeks into a stretch of 11 losses in 19 games and it’s not like it’s been an incredibly rough stretch in the schedule. It started with a horrid mail-it-in 105-75 loss to the Knicks, which was followed by losses to bottom-dwellers Detroit, Washington, Sacramento, Atlanta and New Orleans on Sunday. So it’s beyond being just a funk. Shockingly it leaves them just a half game ahead of the surprising Knicks, and I’m pretty sure “catastrophe”would be the No. 1 answer if this were an episode of Family Feud and a family of green-teamers were asked what one word would best sum up finishing behind the Knickerbockers this year.

Now I’m more into fixing things than second guessing, so here’s a look at the issues and some suggestions for fixing the problem.

The Team Is Playing Dead: They have no emotion. Especially with Marcus Smart out. All teams need a guy who gets in people’s faces when they don’t play hard, they make dumb mistakes or they just don’t care enough about winning and losing. Some do it by scaring guys like MJ or KG, some with a stern leadership demeanor like LBJ. Others are just a pain in the butt like Draymond Green. But however it’s done every team needs it and they don’t have a guy like that.

Brad Stevens: I’m not a blame-the-coach-for-everything kind of guy. But I admit I have Brad fatigue for two reasons.

They Reflect His Placid Demeanor: Some coaches are suited for one kind of situation and not for others, like Bill Fitch with the Celtics in the ’80s. His drill sergeant approach was perfect for the young team Larry Bird joined as a rookie, which needed to learn how to win. But his shrill, never satisfied voice was eventually tuned out when those lessons were learned. In came the “treat them like they know what they’re doing” KC Jones and the guys responded by winning two titles. That may be the case here in reverse. This passive group needs a guy to drive them because they’re too comfortable with losses.

He’s Too In Love With The 3-Ball:It’s why they blow so many big leads. Once the 3’s stop falling, they have few other options to look for help as the big leads melt away, as happened on Sunday.

Jayson Tatum: I know how talented he is and he’s a good kid who puts in the work to improve. But I want more. I know it’s not his way, but the best player has got to develop a what-the-blank-are-you-doing way when needed, and until he does he’s not a Top 10 player or the leader they need.

The 3-Ball Doesn’t Always Fall: I know it’s a 3-ball league and what the math says about taking 3’s over 2’s. But sorry, anyone who has ever played knows that sometimes long-distance shots hit dry spells. Thus teams also need scoring down low, where the percentage is higher and you get foul shots. You rarely get the latter on 3-balls unless you have a dope covering you. Case in point was Sunday, when after being down 21, instead of the Pelicans chucking up more 3’s, they posted up 280-pound Zion Williamson or gave it to him at the foul line for drives, where he just overpowered everyone, leading to easy buckets and trips to the line for old-time three-point plays. That and the sudden appearance of defense was why they turned that game around. Having a really dependable block scorer, like, I don’t know, Joel Embiid also forces weakside defenders to double team them, which gives shooters more time/room to launch.

C’s Needs Restructuring:I don’t know what Brian Scalabrine is smoking, but the biggest need is not another scoring wing like Harrison Barnes. It’s changing the formula from wing scoring dominance to one that complements the 3-ball with reliable scoring from the block.As much as I love the grit of Daniel Theis, that’s not him. So a trade is needed. But if they want to wait a bit, give Robert Williams 30 minutes a game to see if he can do some of that.

The General Manager: Earth to Danny, what are you waiting for? Stop trying to get a steal every time you make a trade like in the Gordon Hayward-for-Myles Turner fiasco. I’m not in love with Turner, but taking only him in that deal instead of holding out for more would have filled the need to get bigger up front and provided a stretch four who blocks shots too. He also could have been flipped later for a better fit. Rome is burning. Stop fiddling (and diddling) and get what is needed.

The Bench Needs Scoring:Short term, I’d swap Payton Pritchard and Kemba, to give the second unit a much-needed dynamic scorer. However, any major deal will likely need Kemba as the bait to make that happen, so it must give the C’s a proven bench scorer back, like Orlando’s Terrence Ross.

Top Trade Target: I wanted Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic as the free agent replacement the summer Al Horford and Kyrie Irving defected. The problem is that he’s blossomed into a 24 and 11 guy so he’ll cost a lot more. Why would Orlando move him? Maybe after falling out of it again they’ll want to build around their younger players and know his trade value will never be higher. He’ll cost future picks, recent top picks and likely the Time Lord, unless Kemba goes to a third team needing a veteran presence with a lot of draft capital to send their way like New Orleans.

With the Super Bowl in the rear view mirror after Tom Brady’s quest for No. 7 took up a lot of oxygen in the space over the last month, it’s time to catch up on a number of stories that have been sitting on the back burner.

Is it me, or after last week’s salary dump of Andrew Benintendi for KC castoff Franchy Cordero did it seem like Chaim Bloom just dusted off Theo Epstein’s talking points from when he got Wily Mo Pena in a trade for Bronson Arroyo? I mean besides the “we did it because we have too many starting pitchers” part it was the same — Franchy’s got awesome power with a high ceiling and just hasn’t been able to unlock his potential in KC. Got it.

If you’re wondering, here’s the payoff for both teams in that. While all of Wily Mo’s homers either were heat-seeking missiles or traveled about 900 feet, for basically a full season (157 games) split over two years it was 16 homers, 58 RBI and a .271 batting average for Pena. For the dependable Arroyo, who went eight years in Cincy without missing a start before a rotator cuff tear pretty much ended the career, it was 276 starts for a record of 108-100 and a 4.18 ERA.

One final thing on Wily Mo. He also has a kinda sorta tie to Patriots history, as he was traded to the Reds for Yankees alleged two-sport star Drew Henson, whom George Steinbrenner paid big dough to play in the Yanks system while being recruited to play football at Michigan. They thought he was going to be such an all-timer they gave him unearned 50 percent playing time at QB his first two years, which made Tom Brady just a split time starter his junior and senior years. However, Henson eventually flunked out in both sports. First after bouncing between the Yanks (who drafted him) to Cincy and back again, he only played a handful of major league games. In the NFL it was just 20 with Detroit and Dallas, where the kicker is that he still was drafted higher than Brady a few years later at 193 to TB’s 199 on his potential. No wonder Brady has a chip on his shoulder.

The latest example showing Americans can whine over just about anything these days is the woman treating her the Super Bowl trophy her father designed as if it’s the Mona Lisa and demanding Brady apologize for playfully throwing it to another boat during Tampa’s SB water parade. If it were the Stanley Cup I could see it, but it would be for protecting a tradition, not for an uninterestingly designed trophy.

Exhibit B: Why does Curt Schilling always see himself as the victim? Sorry, but I’m with the BBWAA to keep him on the Hall of Fame ballot next year despite his demand they take him off. That happened after he came up short last month, which he attributes to his outspoken political views. He might be right about that, but it’s not his choice, it’s theirs. Besides, what so many don’t seem to get about free speech is while anyone is perfectly free to say what they want, it doesn’t mean there aren’t consequences for what you say. And that happened before his strong vocal support for the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol. So kiss next year goodbye too. Which is why he really wants off the ballot.

Those of us in the NHC/SNHU basketball community have a heavy heart over the loss of Larry Conyers at the end of January. He played in the NHC days under Tom Sullivan via Sully’s underground railroad from the Bronx. Outside of during running line drills, the big fella always had a smile on his face and a joke in his heart. A good man, and losing Larry C to Covid-19 made the pandemic all the more real to all of us.

If you ever wondered about this, Tampa Bay’s 31-9 win over KC evened Brady’s record against the spread to 5-5 in the Super Bowl.

Funniest social media trend following the Super Bowl was people on Twitter asking Missouri senator of the home state Kansas City Chiefs Josh Hawley if he was going to accept the results of their loss or contest them as he famously did after the election of Joe Biden.

With Deshaun Watson as their QB in 2020 the Pats win at least three more games (the first Bills game, Denver and Houston, who wouldn’t have had him there to kill them) to be 10-6. Also maybe Seattle and even KC, whom they led until two titanic red zone mistakes by Brian Hoyer. So I’d be willing to give up a package like L.A. gave up for Matthew Stafford to get him. Big loss of draft picks, but they’ve got enough free agency money to get him a couple of receivers, so I’d do it. But he’s the only one on the market I’d consider for that, including if Stafford was still available.

From the You Don’t Hear That Every Day From a Pro Athlete department: How about hyperbolic Patriots linebacker dude Chase Winovich tweeting out not too long ago, “New Hampshire is so cool. Portsmouth is randomly the coolest city in the world,” which a NESN scribe saw first and passed on.

In terms of winning, the first 10 years of the 21^st century was downright amazing for Boston sports, and thanks to five more titles from the Red Sox and Patriots the second decade wasn’t too shabby either. However, No. 3 hasn’t started out so well. With Brady, Mookie Betts and Zdeno Chara departing in the last six months, has any city lost as many iconic players in the same calendar year as Boston? And if he’d met expectations Gordon Hayward would have made it one from each franchise.

I know. The Celtics are a mess. We’ll deal with that next week.

On Saturday night before Sunday’s Super Bowl I got this overwhelming feeling in picking Kansas City to beat Tampa Bay I had made a mistake betting against Tom Brady. It came while I was watching the conclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody, where in his return to Queen after the band’s Beatles-esque breakup, despite his doubts Freddie Mercury rises to the occasion to wow the 100,000-plus on hand at London’s Wembley Stadium and the billion-plus Live Aid audience tuning in around the globe to the famed concert of 1985.

Yes, it was Hollywood and a little over dramatic probably. But it showed how greatness is about rising to the moment and made me believe Brady was going to be Brady the next day and Tampa Bay was going to win. A little late for my own “stop the presses” Hollywood moment and bad for me, as my prediction was already on the street, because that’s just how it happened. Forever young Tom looked exactly as he did in all six previous SB wins. This time he beat the young whippersnapper looking to challenge his G.O.A.T. status. Instead, the oldest goat in the NFL held serve to claim a seventh ring. It was all so familiar, except it was tinged with a bit of sadness as seeing him win this one was like watching dad get remarried to someone else after the divorce from mom.

Here are some other thoughts from a Super Bowl that wasn’t nearly as much fun as most thought it would be.

Reggie, Reggie, Reggie: Until last night I never thought Reggie Jackson’s three-homer Game 6 to end the Dodgers in the 1977 World Series and conclude his tumultuous Bronx Zoo first season in New York had competition for giving critics the best Up Yours performance. But Brady being the game’s MVP while winning in Year 1 after his divorce from Coach B comes close.

Speaking of the MVP: If I asked you what was more likely, Tampa Bay scoring 31 points or their defense holding the NFL’s best offense to nine paltry points, what would you say? Exactly. So, Brady being named MVP is the product of lazy voters picking on reputation and maybe sentimentality. I think it’s got to come from the defense. My vote is Devin White for being all over the field making a game-high 12 tackles and grabbing the end zone pick to close KC out.

Pat Mahomes is Worth the Price of Admission: Never seen anyone throw from normal to side arm to underhand to on the run while being chased like him. The two he threw in the fourth quarter into the end zone while falling to the ground after being chased back to around the 30 were incredible. Even though it didn’t look like he could even see them, he somehow got it to receivers with a chance to catch them. No one else I’ve ever seen could have done that. Amazing. 

Being The Goat Used to Mean Something Else: The dreaded goat horns go to KC coach Andy Reid for making the dumbest Super Bowl decision since Pete Carroll didn’t give it to Marshawn Lynch on the one in the closing seconds of the 2014 game. What could Andy possibly have been thinking taking two timeouts in the final 43 seconds of the first half when TB had the ball? Forget the last 20 years on Brady’s resume. Didn’t he see what TB did to Green Bay in the exact same situation just two weeks ago? The exact same thing happened too, as Brady hit Antonio Brown for a final-seconds TD to turn a manageable 14-6 deficit with the ball to start the second half into a giant 21-6 hole they never climbed out of. Don’t mean to rub it in, but wow that was dumb.

Where’s Mike Curtis When You Need Him? Good thing for that idiot running on the field in the fourth quarter Sunday the ferocious ’60s Colts linebacker wasn’t there to run by. He once swung out his arm for a clothesline shot to drop a goofball runner like a box of rocks.

Will Coach B Learn from This? Wonder if Belichick will learn anything about moderating his approach from seeing Brady and Gronk hooking up for the game’s first two TD’s after he ran them off with his, ah, grating style. And he won’t need a reminder either, as he’s going to get pounded by the local media until he wins No. 7 himself. Learning that lesson would be good, as I’ve got to think Brady and Gronk bolting the castle in a revolt against how the king treated them won’t be a big plus in efforts to recruit free agents going forward.

Tony Romo Gets the Last Word: The likable CBS color man had the clearest stat I’ve ever heard to define Brady’s greatness when he said on Sunday he has highest winning percentage in history of any player in any of the four major sports and Tampa Bay has the lowest winning percentage in history of any team from the four major sports and they win the year he arrives. That tells you all you need to know. I generally think QB’s get too much credit, but I’ve always believed 11 tiles in his 13 years make Bill Russell the greatest NBA player. So it should apply here with Brady as well. 

One Final Thing: In playing at an extreme age only George Foreman winning the heavyweight crown at 45 matches what Brady did this year. Yes, Jack Nicklaus won the Masters at 46, but it was done in one weekend in a sport where most play into their 40’s. Brady’s feat came over an entire season in a sport where few make it to their mid-30’s because they get the crap kicked out of them in every game they play from the time they enter the league in their early 20’s. Well done, Tom.

The 55th Super Bowl comes your way on Sunday to conclude a season marked by disruptions, limited fans in the stands, and other craziness of the pandemic season. I’m among the dwindling group who’s seen all 55 and given the QB match-up it’s one of my more highly anticipated when I haven’t got a dog in the hunt. Yeah, I know, you-know-who is back for his incredible 10th SB, this time with Tampa Bay. But that’s an “I want him to do well, I don’t want him to win” rooting toss-up. Plus I love watching how the KC Chiefs play.

Starting with “Will KC’s 27-24 win over TB in Week 12 matter?” here are some of the questions I’ll be looking to have answered as the opening kickoff goes airborne at 6:35 p.m. Sunday on CBS.

Is KC As Good As They Seem? I know Pat Mahomes is. Ditto for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and their defense is better than most think. But with Sammy Watkins and their two top running backs sidelined they’ve relied on Hill and Kelce an awful lot. Though it didn’t hurt in the 38-14 win over Buffalo to get here. To win, Bill Belichick always looks to shut down the No. 1 option. But who’s the number option? The more dangerous Hill, or first-down machine Kelce? Watkins is questionable, but it looks like Clyde Edwards-Helaire will play and that should help. Not unbeatable, but really dangerous.

How Good Is TB’s Defense? Their linebackers are fast to the ball. Especially Devin White, who’s had a great playoffs so far. And while they don’t have a huge sack guy, in Jason Pierre Paul (9.5), White (9.0), Shaquil Barrett (8.5) and Ndamukong Suh (6.0) they have an array of guys who create pressure from different directions. So it can create problems.

Will Having Home Field Matter for TB? No team has ever played a Super Bowl in their own stadium as Tampa Bay will Sunday, though the Rams basically were home at the Rose Bowl in nearby Pasadena when they lost 31-19 to Pittsburgh in SB14, and five years later the 49ers walloped Miami 38-16 in nearby Palo Alto at Stanford. But with that a split they’re no help. It also won’t be a “hometown crowd” as the majority are out-of-town neutrals, made an even smaller factor with the pandemic-induced 25 percent max capacity. So the biggest difference could be without the usual who-ha festival environment factor seeming more like just a “regular game.” Normally home field gives home teams a three-point edge. I’ll give it just a one-point bump and only because having it can’t hurt.

At What Point is Tom Brady’s Overall SB Record a Consideration? It irritates me that evaluating quarterbacks comes down to just counting their rings. Like they’re the only ones who had anything to do with the wins. Pardon me for thinking Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Julian Edelman and Malcolm Butler and many othershad something to do with Brady’s six. The point is you need a team to get there. Then there’s Joe Montana, never lost in four tries. Ditto for Terry Bradshaw, and Troy Aikman was 3-0 in the ’90s. And while Brady was 3-0 before (gulp) losing the undefeated season to the G-Men in SB42, if Tampa loses Sunday Brady will tie Jim Kelly for most losses with four. If he gets credit for the wins, shouldn’t his record losses be taken into account in the “greatest ever” discussion? As should the team you played for? Because if Kelly had Adam V instead of Scott Norwood, he’d be 1-3 at least, not 0-4. So which number is most significant for TB, 6, 4, 6-4 or 10?

Friends, Romans, Countrymen: Using Roman numerals was quaint through the first 10 years. But now at 55 it’s nuts, because no one younger than, say 1,982 years old has a clue what L, V or X means. For instance, I look at the list of all the games on Wikipedia and see the aforementioned 2007 game is SBXLII and go, “What? Does X = 30 and L = 10 to make it 42? Or does it mean X = 50 and L is -10?” Confusing it even further is that the game for the 2007 title was played in 2008. And if Roman numerals are so great, why is the 50th game called Super Bowl 50? That’s stupidest of all, when you see it in a list with all the others with X’s, L’s and V’s. For the love of god just give us real numbers and leave chariot races, Julius Caesar and those dang numerals to the Romans.

Key to KC Win: We all know how to beat Brady: with pressure up the middle. It prevents him from stepping up into the pocket, makes him hurry throws and is tough to throw over. If I’m KC my defensive game plan is built around that.

Key to TB Win: They have to put Mahomes on the ground, which should be a little easier with left tackle Eric Fisher now lost to a torn Achilles tendon. The problem is you can’t miss him, because he’s deadly outside the pocket where he’s great throwing on the run and has a knack for getting to the sticks for first downs on third and long.

Will There Be An X-Factor? For TB it was Scott Miller somehow getting behind the Green Bay defense for a game-altering TD with one second left in the first half of the NFC Conference game. This week I’ll go KC’s Mecole Hardman, whose dazzling speed produces a special teams TD or big plays from scrimmage like that 50-yard run off a Jets sweep vs. Buffalo.

Who Wins: Take the (gulp) under (57.5) in a 31-24 KC win.

Well, who can be surprised Tom Brady did it again? Despite a very shaky second half, he’s headed to his 10th Super Bowl after doing what he needed to do against Green Bay to get there as usual. Though I suspect a three-pick second half vs. KC will croak him. Jimmy Garoppolo got roasted for a lot less than that when the 49ers didn’t hold their fourth-quarter lead against them in the SB a year ago. So Tom had better be careful.

That aside, the Bucs earned their trip to the big game with a 31-26 win over Green Bay, where defending champion Kansas City is waiting following a 38-24 manhandling of Buffalo. It was a fun day of football that reinforced my belief that NFL conference championship Sunday is the best sports viewing day of the year. Some of it had nothing to do with the local football team, and with Brady in the mix some of it seemed to me all about Patriots decisions, what might have been and what they need to do to get back to playing on the second to last Sunday of the NFL year.

Here are some more observations on all that.

If you’re interested, losing Green Bay had a 34:27–25:23 edge in time of possession in Game 1, while despite KC’s runaway win they had only a slight 31:09–28:51 edge over Buffalo. That’s why I don’t think it usually tells you much.

Don’t get why Matt LaFleur went for the FG with 2:37 left and Green Bay down 31-23. Isn’t getting one play from a Hall of Fame QB to win it on fourth down better odds than needing four from his defense and still needing a TD to win from much farther away?

Having said that, despite the success, I never do escape the feeling watching Aaron Rodgers in big games that there’s something missing. Can’t quite put my finger on why, but it was there again Sunday. Maybe that’s why he’s lost four of the five NFC title games he’s been in.

This weekend showed how far off the Pats are. Forget quarterback for a second. The most glaring deficiency is team speed on offense and defense. KC has blinding speed. Buffalo and Green Bay have it on the outside and while besides Antonio Brown I’m not quite sure how fast Tampa Bay receivers are, they seem to get open down the field a lot and their linebackers can run.

Attention, Bill Belichick. Josh Allen went from 20 TD passes to 40 after Buffalo traded for Stefon Diggs. It wasn’t all because of Diggs, but their pedestrian 2019 offense transformed into the league’s second-ranked O as their prized acquisition led the NFL in catches and receiving yards. I also recall something similar happening after Randy Moss arrived in 2007. That’s also why Brady went from 24 TD passes last year to a second best in his career 40 with Tampa Bay. Speed on the outside makes a big difference.

While we’re on that subject, how is it that with good old Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and the out for the year O. J. Howard, Tampa Bay has three tight ends better than any TE the Patriots have?

Don’t buy the narrative being pushed by the Boston media Coach B didn’t have a plan for when Brady left town or retired. He did have one until Brady went up the back staircase to whine about it to the owner, who then made BB trade Garoppolo after he’d already traded Jacoby Brissett, which he wouldn’t have done if he were planning to trade Jimmy G. Then a short time after deep sixing the plan, Brady split to leave Coach B holding the bag. Basically he outmaneuvered Belichick in an act of self-preservation, so don’t make Brady out to be anything but a contributor to their QB dilemma.

But through either a strange coincidence or karma, it’s interesting that we’ll have gotten to see how the Pats QB drama played out in back-to-back Super Bowls against the rampaging Chiefs. So let’s see what Brady does next weekend vs. what Jimmy G did against them.

When Bullet Bob Hayes was called the world’s fastest human after winning gold in the 100-yard dash at the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, he brought blinding straight-ahead speed to scare the bejeebers out of Dallas Cowboys opponents all through the 1960’s. And through the years people from Billy White Shoes Johnson to Wes Welker have had the short-space quickness to find daylight to get free inside a refrigerator box. But Tyreek Hill has the best combination of both I’ve ever seen. He can score on any down from any distance on any type of play from go routes to wideout screens to Jets sweeps and everything else. He must terrify game planners about to face the Chiefs.

Speaking of blinding speed: The closest approximation of Hill is teammate Mecole Hardman, whose fumbled punt on Sunday handed Buffalo its first TD. He made up for it by taking a shuffle pass up the gut for KC’s first score and with a dazzling 50-yard run on a Jets sweep to put them in position for their second TD. Those impressed by that in Patriots Nation won’t love hearing the wideout/Pro Bowl returner went 24 picks behind N’Keal Harry in the 2019 draft

After watching him average 102 catches the last three seasons and tear up the Browns and Bills the last two weeks for 23 catches, 227 yards and three touchdowns, I’m starting to think Travis Kelce may be a better intermediate-range receiver than Gronk in his prime. The big fella is still a much better blocker and used to be a better deep threat, but Kelce is good and clutch.

If you think Buffalo was a fluke, guess again. They have a good young coach and a really good young QB. Sound familiar? The Pats now have to catch up to them.