With December here and four games left to play, let’s take a look at where things stand for the Patriots and the rest of the NFL as they jockey for playoff position.
After Monday Night’s, um, unique 14-10 win over the Bills in very windy Buffalo, the Patriots go into their bye week as the Top Seed in the AFC thanks to a best in the conference 9-4 record. Now they’ll sit by and wait for the outcomes of a bunch of games with implications for the AFC playoff picture this week that could help or hurt the Pats’ place in the scrum. They are Baltimore at Cleveland, SF at Cincy, LV at KC, and the biggie, Buffalo at Tampa Bay, that will have Patriot Nation hoping TB delivers one more solid for the Foxboro faithful with a win.
Who’s hot: While not blowing anyone away like past seasons, it’s KC with five straight wins to regain control in the AFC West. Miami’s also won five straight, and while they’re just 6 and 7, they could be a problem for Pats if they’re still red hot when they meet in Miami in Week 17.
Who’s not: After losing on a failed two-point conversion on Sunday’s final play vs. Pittsburgh it’s the Ravens. Still have the AFC North lead, but after losing three of six amid three skin-of-their-teeth wins their seeming lock on top seed in the AFC is gone. Especially with five tough closing games ahead.
In my season preview I had Buffalo and TB in the SB. Now, since I’m still not convinced on Arizona, I’ll recalibrate to a KC-TB rematch. Though having said that, the Pats can beat anyone and I won’t be surprised if they get there.
However, with the Rams and Cardinals playing on Monday night I’ll get a chance to re-evaluate Arizona. And in a matter related to Zona having the best record in the league, a lot has to do with QB Kyler Murray and his league-leading 110.2 in QB rating. All of which makes it obvious the former first-round pick of the Oakland A’s made the right call choosing the NFL over MLB.
Murray is not the only former first overall pick who’s thriving in 2021. Joe Burrow is having a nice year too. With the Bengals in the playoff hunt, he’s thrown for 2,835 yards and 22 TD passes to put him on pace for 34 and 4,400. Not a bad second season.
Not so much for the first overall before Murray and Burrow, however, as there are major grumbles all over Cleveland about Baker Mayfield as he comes up for his first big contract. A big decision for the Browns and it will be interesting to see if they punt on Mayfield to start their QB hunt again. I bet they sign him, but for nowhere near the $40 million people were throwing around last summer.
Speaking of big money decisions, Coach B has a big one coming up at the end of the year as it’s no secret JC Jackson will get a boatload after another great season. The options: if it gets too expensive let him walk, extend him for big money (which he should have done last winter) or franchise him for north of $17 million per. One side of history says after seeing Ty Law, the still bitter Asante Samuel, Darrelle Revis, Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore walk out that door Coach B will let JC do that as well. But my history says he should not let that happen, because the Pats went 10 years without winning the SB from when Law left after 2004 to when Revis arrived in 2014. They’ve also never won it without a top-flight CB in the secondary — Law (2001, ’03, ’04), Revis (2014), Butler (2016) and Gilmore (2018). In other words, Bill, don’t screw this up.
The latest evidence is in for just how idiotic stat geek analysis is. It comes from Pro Football Focus, which gave Mac Jones his worst graded game so far after the 36-13 win over Tennessee when all he did was complete 73 percent of his passes while throwing for a career-best 310 yards, two TD passes and no interceptions. The 122.3 QB rating was, oh by the way, the best in the entire NFL for Week 12. Guess they didn’t see the New Orleans or L.A. Chargers games when the QB ratings were 70.8 and 55.2 respectively. You have to see the marking categories, but suffice it to say they are nitpicking nonsense.
The most remarkable Patriots stat of the season has been them going into the Buffalo game with the largest (+186) point differential in the entire NFL. Who saw that coming with a rookie QB?
Patrick Mahomes just does not look fast or especially athletic to me, but when he runs out of the pocket he still somehow always seems to get to the sticks for a first down or just squeezes into the corner of the end zone as he did on his 12-yard scramble for the first TD in KC’s Sunday night win vs. Denver.
While Cooper Kupp sounds more like a sporting goods company specializing in protective equipment for baseball catchers, he actually is the Rams wideout who’s having a hellacious season. He’s on pace for 142 catches and 1,929 receiving yards, which has him in range of the all-time record in both categories of 149 and 1,964.
I must admit I had barely ever heard of Colts RB Jonathan Taylor until I saw him gash the Bills for 185 rushing yards and five TD’s as Indy carved them up in their 41-15 Week 11 demolition of Buffalo. He’s worth the price of admission.
But, with him on a collision course with the Patriots defense on Saturday night — be careful what you wish for.