The Big Story – Fixing the Patriots: With free agency opening in less than two weeks it’s time to look at what Coach B and company need to do to fix the Patriots for 2023, a crucial year in the “Tom vs. Bill” debate because it’s the fourth season since Tom Brady left the building and that’s enough time to recover from losing their franchise player. So a big year for the coach’s overall legacy.
There are two schools of thought about how big a fix is needed.
One says with a productive defense they can get back into the mix with the right moves on offense.
The other says no matter what they add they can’t close the gap between them and the elites because the offense needs major surgery and that might include a change at QB because they can’t go toe to toe with the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow with Mac Jones under center.
In any event, here’s a look at what needs to be considered, starting with a focus on the QB.
No. 1 Question: If I’m the Patriots’ owner, the first thing I want to know is why did a QB who was very good as a rookie take a dramatic step backward in his second season as Jones did. After that, I need to know if Mac is the guy to go forward with
Mac Jones: One theory is he’s not that good, or he’s limited, and Josh McDaniels helped mask that in 2021.
Thus one solution is to bring in someone else while recouping a couple of draft picks by trading him. One proponent of this is Christopher Gasper, who wrote in the Boston Globe last week they should dump Mac and bring back free agent Jimmy Garoppolo, in a column that was remarkably like him saying last January the Celtics had to trade Marcus Smart for a real point guard or they’d never go anywhere. Boy, he nailed that one.
This is the same. Lamar Jackson is one thing (though that would require major cap surgery). But the last thing they need is an injury-prone/slow-healing QB who’ll cost three times what Mac does on his rookie contract, whose injuries derailed two of the last five SF seasons. And it would have been three this year if a circa-2001-Brady-like miracle hadn’t surfaced when he broke his leg. Especially since it cost them once already when in 2016 all he had to do was last four games during Tom Brady’s suspension and didn’t make it to the second half of Game 2. Sorry, if you can’t stay on the field you can’t play. Don’t want him.
Plus, while I’m under no illusion Jones did not have his own 2022 issues, I know what I saw in 2021, so I’m not willing to give up on him yet.
I think it was an amalgam of the following.
Play Calling and Game Planning: It’s no secret Matt Patricia in these roles was a total disaster. It was simplistic, predictable and overly cautious to the point where it seemed the goal was to not get a turnover rather than to make plays. It was also often done too slowly, which led to an unacceptable number of timeouts called to avoid penalties. All of which played into some publicized immature, frustration-driven sideline antics by Jones.
Offensive Line: In a word, it was awful. More specifically, penalty-prone, often porous and inconsistent from week to week. That likely contributed to the knock Mac locks on receivers. That leads to bad habits, as when you don’t have a lot of time you look to get rid of it quickly, over going through progressions to find the open guy. And of course sacks lead to down and distance issues, which make sustaining drives more challenging.
The Weapons: They’re below average. It’s the same problem Brady had as he sulked his way through 2019 and Cam Newton had in 2020. They get little separation, don’t do much after the catch (besides Kendrick Bourne) and no one puts the fear of God into defensive game planners. That was exacerbated by the play calling, because throws to Hunter Henry up the seam worked when tried but were rarely called until the end of the year.
Can They Fix It For 2023? It’s a little of both schools of thought. I do like the defense, but, given their swing-and-miss ratio on recent personnel decisions, especially during the 2021 spending spree, I don’t have much faith in the personnel department to have a good enough batting average to hit on enough FAs and draft choices to fill all the holes. However, it doesn’t mean they can’t do it. Plus with Bill O’Brien named to replace Patricia the play calling issue has been addressed.
The 2023 Fix: After one up and one down year it’s too early to give up on Mac. You won’t know what he really is until the other issues are fixed. If you don’t believe me, compare Brady’s 2019 numbers and when they no longer were an issue in Tampa Bay the next year. Help is needed now, so they should focus on the next three years and put whatever draft capital is needed for trades and aim all free agent spending to get ready on Day 1 solutions to do these things:
(1) Fix the offense line, which starts with getting two, new younger tackles.
(2) Bring in a consistent A+ home run-hitting deep threat/wide receiver that teams must game plan for. Exhibit A is what adding A.J. Brown to DeVonta Smith in Philly did for Jalen Hurts. Ditto for Tua after adding Tyreek Hill to Jaylen Waddle. Mac was better than both guys at Bama when he was teamed with Waddle and Smith.
(3) Apply whatever is left to plug other holes as needed.
Email Dave Long at dlong@hippopress.com.
