The 55th Super Bowl comes your way on Sunday to conclude a season marked by disruptions, limited fans in the stands, and other craziness of the pandemic season. I’m among the dwindling group who’s seen all 55 and given the QB match-up it’s one of my more highly anticipated when I haven’t got a dog in the hunt. Yeah, I know, you-know-who is back for his incredible 10th SB, this time with Tampa Bay. But that’s an “I want him to do well, I don’t want him to win” rooting toss-up. Plus I love watching how the KC Chiefs play.
Starting with “Will KC’s 27-24 win over TB in Week 12 matter?” here are some of the questions I’ll be looking to have answered as the opening kickoff goes airborne at 6:35 p.m. Sunday on CBS.
Is KC As Good As They Seem? I know Pat Mahomes is. Ditto for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and their defense is better than most think. But with Sammy Watkins and their two top running backs sidelined they’ve relied on Hill and Kelce an awful lot. Though it didn’t hurt in the 38-14 win over Buffalo to get here. To win, Bill Belichick always looks to shut down the No. 1 option. But who’s the number option? The more dangerous Hill, or first-down machine Kelce? Watkins is questionable, but it looks like Clyde Edwards-Helaire will play and that should help. Not unbeatable, but really dangerous.
How Good Is TB’s Defense? Their linebackers are fast to the ball. Especially Devin White, who’s had a great playoffs so far. And while they don’t have a huge sack guy, in Jason Pierre Paul (9.5), White (9.0), Shaquil Barrett (8.5) and Ndamukong Suh (6.0) they have an array of guys who create pressure from different directions. So it can create problems.
Will Having Home Field Matter for TB? No team has ever played a Super Bowl in their own stadium as Tampa Bay will Sunday, though the Rams basically were home at the Rose Bowl in nearby Pasadena when they lost 31-19 to Pittsburgh in SB14, and five years later the 49ers walloped Miami 38-16 in nearby Palo Alto at Stanford. But with that a split they’re no help. It also won’t be a “hometown crowd” as the majority are out-of-town neutrals, made an even smaller factor with the pandemic-induced 25 percent max capacity. So the biggest difference could be without the usual who-ha festival environment factor seeming more like just a “regular game.” Normally home field gives home teams a three-point edge. I’ll give it just a one-point bump and only because having it can’t hurt.
At What Point is Tom Brady’s Overall SB Record a Consideration? It irritates me that evaluating quarterbacks comes down to just counting their rings. Like they’re the only ones who had anything to do with the wins. Pardon me for thinking Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Julian Edelman and Malcolm Butler and many othershad something to do with Brady’s six. The point is you need a team to get there. Then there’s Joe Montana, never lost in four tries. Ditto for Terry Bradshaw, and Troy Aikman was 3-0 in the ’90s. And while Brady was 3-0 before (gulp) losing the undefeated season to the G-Men in SB42, if Tampa loses Sunday Brady will tie Jim Kelly for most losses with four. If he gets credit for the wins, shouldn’t his record losses be taken into account in the “greatest ever” discussion? As should the team you played for? Because if Kelly had Adam V instead of Scott Norwood, he’d be 1-3 at least, not 0-4. So which number is most significant for TB, 6, 4, 6-4 or 10?
Friends, Romans, Countrymen: Using Roman numerals was quaint through the first 10 years. But now at 55 it’s nuts, because no one younger than, say 1,982 years old has a clue what L, V or X means. For instance, I look at the list of all the games on Wikipedia and see the aforementioned 2007 game is SBXLII and go, “What? Does X = 30 and L = 10 to make it 42? Or does it mean X = 50 and L is -10?” Confusing it even further is that the game for the 2007 title was played in 2008. And if Roman numerals are so great, why is the 50th game called Super Bowl 50? That’s stupidest of all, when you see it in a list with all the others with X’s, L’s and V’s. For the love of god just give us real numbers and leave chariot races, Julius Caesar and those dang numerals to the Romans.
Key to KC Win: We all know how to beat Brady: with pressure up the middle. It prevents him from stepping up into the pocket, makes him hurry throws and is tough to throw over. If I’m KC my defensive game plan is built around that.
Key to TB Win: They have to put Mahomes on the ground, which should be a little easier with left tackle Eric Fisher now lost to a torn Achilles tendon. The problem is you can’t miss him, because he’s deadly outside the pocket where he’s great throwing on the run and has a knack for getting to the sticks for first downs on third and long.
Will There Be An X-Factor? For TB it was Scott Miller somehow getting behind the Green Bay defense for a game-altering TD with one second left in the first half of the NFC Conference game. This week I’ll go KC’s Mecole Hardman, whose dazzling speed produces a special teams TD or big plays from scrimmage like that 50-yard run off a Jets sweep vs. Buffalo.
Who Wins: Take the (gulp) under (57.5) in a 31-24 KC win.