After a year of being a team no one wanted to own, the surprising 2021 Red Sox are back to my introducing them to one and all as being your Boston Red Sox. A team with a solid core, getting surprising production from retread newcomers like Garrett Richards or never-was-until-now guys like the 5-0 Nick Pivetta.
That makes them a classic case of “is the glass half empty or half full?” One hand, they lead the AL East by 1.5 games after entering 2021 with no expectations whatsoever from me. It has me wondering what I missed. On the other hand, while they do have an outstanding middle of the order, they appear to have (big) holes in the everyday lineup and throughout the pitching staff. That makes me wonder if they can keep it up, especially as they face a mostly tougher part of their schedule over the next six weeks.
Good Signs
Alex Cora: Outside of his maddening caution with his pitchers, one of baseball’s best managers is back in their dugout. That’ll be tested, because unless reinforcements arrive he’ll have to creatively mix and match all year to cover up the obvious holes they have.
Middle of the Order: With his in-game video review security blanket restored, J.D. Martinez is back to normal. So with him, Raffy Devers and Xander Bogaerts all on a pace for 35 homers and to knock in over 100, the lineup’s 3-4-5 can mash with anyone. It’s the strongest part of the team that will be extended on either side if/when Alex Verdugo and Christian Vazquez contribute as consistently as a year ago.
Eduardo Rodriguez: While the 4.15 ERA is higher than you’d like, the more important 5-1 record shows he’s come through missing 2020 with Covid-19-related heart issues OK. Major good news.
Matt Barnes: I’m nominating whoever’s behind getting/forcing him to attack from the first pitch for a Nobel Prize because he’s been outstanding. After watching him nibble himself through one seven-pitch at-bat after another, I usually was infuriated every time he pitched. But no more, as outings like his 12-pitch, three-strikeout save vs. Detroit on May 5, or Friday’s 11-pitch, 10-strike, 3-K save vs. the Angels, have become the norm. Even when Shohei Ohtani clipped him for a game-winning homer on Sunday, it came on a 1-2 pitch with two outs after only getting up because of a botched play in the field.
Things to Keep an Eye On
The Starters: Sorry, I don’t trust it yet behind E-Rod. While healthy so far, Nate Eovaldi has won double digits once in his 10-year career and that was six years ago. Richards is8-12 since 2016 and while Pivetta has been terrific, Philly gave up on his promise after he was 19-30 there. So I need a larger sample size from him.
The Bullpen: Beyond Barnes, it’s “who knows?” as according to Boston Globe stat geek scribe Alex Speier their six bullpen losses and five blown saves lead MLB for May. So I don’t trust anyone, especially eighth-inning setup guy Adam Ottavino, who looks like Nolan Ryan for three pitches and a human blow torch the next five.
Outside the Core: I like the bench’s defensive versatility, but all of them beyond short-timer Michael Chavis are hitting in the low .200s. They need to be far better, or Chaim needs to get people who can be.
Questions to Answer
Chris Sale: They’ve put no timetable on his return. A good thing because it allows no media pressure for a return by a certain date. He’ll be ready when he’s ready. And since no one knows what he will or can deliver when that day arrives, it’s better to consider anything he gives them as a bonus.
Bobby Dalbec and Hunter Renfroe:While they’re hit-or-miss guys at the moment the big “what if” for them is can they find the consistency that would give the Sox five guys with 30-homer potential. Renfro already hit 33 for San Diego in 2019 and Dalbec had a rare for the low minors 32-homer season at (mostly) AA in 2018. So it’s not that far-fetched.
Biggest Questions to be Answered
Nick Pivetta:By starting off 7-0 here since late last year, has the lightbulb finally gone on for the talented, once promising righty? Or is his terrific start a highly visible early season hot streak that ends with the clock striking 12 at some point?
Chaim Bloom: The fast start has gotten skeptics like me off his back for now. But the real question is if they stay in contention and need to fortify the bullpen or everyday spots, will he sit on his hands to sacrifice contending till the end to preserve the farm system’s rebuild for another year?
Chris Sale: If he’s ready to help after it’s too late to stretch him out, could he be used out of the bullpen? In a pre-designed programmed way to provide a certain number of quality innings per week that reduces arm stress as he builds back up? They probably won’t do that, but if able, he’s likely better than anyone they could get at the deadline, thus letting Chaim not use his prized prospects as trade chips.
So that’s the take for the first quarter of the season. Though one other thought has crept into my mind while examining the weaknesses. Is it possible that the 2021 Sox are like the 2013 edition? Who I kept saying about right up until the World Series, how are they doing this because they are not that good? So, with that highly enjoyable season in mind, regardless of where it all ends, put me on the “glass is half full” side.
At least for now.