For the second straight year Red Sox Nation was on the cusp of entering the final week of March wondering what in the name of Haywood Sullivan was going on up there in the executive suite. It seemed Chaim Bloom was again in the increasingly hated (for me) bargain basement mode while Rome burned.
But news broke Saturday that John Henry has finally opened his wallet to outbid the Yanks and others for free agent Trevor Story. A major get that let some of the Nation’s building frustration escape. Though Chaim’s not out of the woods just yet.
But enjoy it for the day before getting back to the important business of grousing about the other issues that need addressing before the season starts.
Trevor Story implications: Signing him was a two-fer, as the former shortstop (for now) gives them a solid fielding second baseman with major offensive pop. It also sends Kike Hernandez out to right field to fill both the offensive and defensive holes left by the departure of Hunter Renfroe that everyone has been wondering about all winter. It also provides insurance at short if Xander Bogaerts opts out and leaves at the end of the year.
So, since Bloom “only” had to go six years and $25 million per to get all that, job well done. Especially since Texas gave their arguably not as good and definitely more injury-prone new shortstop Corey Seager a whopping $330 million over 10 years to get him.
Losing Kyle Schwarber: Letting him walk was a missed opportunity. Keeping him would have given them three more years of contractual control at DH and let them trade J.D. Martinez when every team in the NL suddenly needs one. It would have been revenue-neutral too, as Schwarber will get less per year than the $20 million the Sox pay J.D., while also making the line-up less right-handed dominant than it is now.
With the line-up and defense settled, we turn to pitching, which looks like a hodge-podge mess.
Starting pitching: The good news is the stat geeks tell us number of wins by a starter is totally circumstantial and unimportant. Phew! Because the six guys likely to get the bulk of the starts — Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and newcomers Rich Hill and Michael Wacha — won a combined 34 games against 35 losses in 2021. Which means if 90 is the target, they need 56 wins from the pen. And while I like the promise Houck and Pivetta showed in 2021, am hopeful Sale and Eovaldi can avoid the injuries that have plagued their careers, wonder when it’ll end for the ageless Hill and have no faith in Wacha, the group as a whole doesn’t provide a lot of confidence.
So there are many questions looking for answers here, with the biggest coming from Chris Sale. The 5-1, 3.16 numbers after he returned from his 18-month Tommy John surgery absence look good. But it was a different story in the final 10 days of the regular season and in the playoffs when he struggled mightily. Was it natural fatigue or something more alarming?
Now comes the latest, a stress fracture in the ribcage. He’s calling it “a freak thing,” but it’s another reminder making you wonder if he has the body to face the rigors of pitching the 200-plus innings a year needed from your ace. Especially considering his last healthy season was way back in 2017. I don’t see him making a full 200-inning season anymore, which suggests a role change could be needed. Which brings us to the bullpen.
The bullpen: I know Tampa Bay won 100 games with a bullpen filled with guys making under a million dollars. But we also saw them knocked around in the playoffs, so I’d prefer a hybrid approach so you’re not bringing in seven new bargain basement guys every year as Chaim did in 2021 and basically is doing now, beyond Matt Barnes, who they’re stuck with after giving him an extension during his tremendous first half last year, and 2021 scrap heap find Garrett Whitlock. But beyond Whitlock, I had zero confidence in the pen after Barnes’ astonishing second-half collapse, because it has control issues and was used far too much by the suddenly micro-managing Alex Cora in games it was needed in. And 2022 starts out the same way.
Closer: To solidify the back end I’d make Sale the closer when he comes back for three reasons: (1) Pitching one inning every other day and 70 over the entire year would likely keep the arm fresher for the whole year instead of dealing with the dramatic second-half drop-offs that have plagued him since his days in Chicago; (2) Pitching just one inning gives him a better chance to regain the life to his fast ball and snap to his slider that have been missing since July 2018. (3) There’s no guarantee it’ll work, but almost every great closer was originally a failed starter. Including Mariano Rivera, who had durability issues starting. Not to mention the one-season record for saves is held by John Smoltz, set when arm issues prevented him from starting for three seasons.
Bottom line on the pitching: I know $30 million is usually too much to sink into a closer, but the money is already spent and the issue now is how to get the best bang for their $30 million.
So the Sox should not waste any more time. When Sale comes back, leave Houck in the rotation, give the seventh to Barnes, the eighth to Whitlock, and bite the bullet to make Sale the ninth-inning closer.
OK, so while I think it’s how you spend it, not how much, with payroll pruning done and David Price finally coming off the books after 2022 it’s time to spend to find more quality for the rotation and pen to give them a real chance in 2022.
