At this time last year I said the Patriots were entering an 18-month remodeling period to be up and ready to go again in 2021. Well, that moment has arrived and they’re about to be on the clock with around $65 million to spend over the next few weeks and their best first-round draft position since 2008. They are not bereft of talent, but they do have major holes to fill and other areas to fortify. Given that they have a big question mark at quarterback in a QB-crazed environment and are in the unaccustomed position of not being able to wait for bargains, word on the street is they’re likely to be mucho aggressive in pursuit of what they need.
Here’s a look at what they are faced with and we’ll start with the methods to accomplish their goals.
Strategy Options
The Draft: My attitude about the draft is if it comes down to getting a player who can become a true star or one who fills a glaring hole, go for the star because they’re harder to come by. Plus, as evidenced by the fact that after hitting the bonanza 2010 draft (McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez and Spikes) they’ve added only three players of value each year since, none great, we know it’s a crap shoot. But the draft can be used as ammo in trades for immediate help like in 2007 as well, when Wes Welker and Randy Moss totally transformed the offense by going for 112 catches for 1,175 receiving yards and 98 for a whopping 1,495 yards and an NFL record 23 TD catches respectively after getting them for just second- and fourth-round picks. The only player of consequence taken that year was top pick Brandon Meriweather, but hard to say it wasn’t a great use of that draft.
Trades: The success of the approach in 2007 speaks for itself and when combined with their dire need (and long incompetence) for drafting good wide receivers, I’d suggest they do that via trades for guys who they know can play at this level already.
Free Agency: They’ve got money to spend and real needs, so this is the year to spend big on players, who again they know can play at this level, to refurbish the team.
Biggest Possible Losses
Joe Thuney: Can’t see Coach B paying a franchised tagged guard north of $15 million, so a long-term deal is needed or see ya. Most think he’s way expensive. But by making 60 straight starts over five seasons his durability is very valuable. The emergence of versatile rookie Michael Onwenu provides options, as he could be a cheaper replacement for either Thuney or the returning Marcus Cannon at right tackle.
David Andrews: Whether Thuney stays or goes, retaining the free agent center is crucial as the line fell apart when he missed the entire 2019 season.
Three Biggest Needs
Quarterback: Until this question is answered, they won’t be able to recruit real offensive help in free agency without knowing who’ll be under center. Thus a trade for a vet probably pays the biggest dividends in recruiting receivers. My preference is to draft the right one in Round 1 to find a long-term solution and reap the financial benefits a young QB provides. If that means they also need a one-year caretaker, whether Cam Newton in an evolving role or a Ryan Fitzpatrick type, I’m OK with it.
Wide Receiver: Seeing how ordinary Tom Brady looked in 2019 and how revitalized he was with that deep receiving core in Tampa convinced me I’ve underestimated the value of good receivers. That was reinforced by what Stefon Diggs’ arrival did to the Buffalo offense. With Julian Edelman coming off a significant knee injury at 35 they need two top receivers. I know Jakobi Meyers had 59 catches for 729 yards. But I recall Reche Caldwell led the 2006 team with 61 catches, but only because Brady had to throw it to someone. So, I’m wait and see on whether Jacobi’s 59 fall into the Caldwell category or not. There are some big names out there, like TB’s Chris Godwin, AJ Green and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who I like a lot. They’ll cost big money, but this is the place and time to splurge, like they surprisingly did by going really big for Stephon Gilmore in 2017.
Tight End: If you’re an optimist you’ll say the results from using third-round picks on tight ends last year are a work in progress. If you’re realistic, you’ll say after combining for a pathetic five catches, under no circumstances can tight end be left up to Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Though I’m not with the clamor for the just-released Kyle Rudolph. The once highly productive TE is coming off a 28-catch season preceded by 39 in 2019, which sounds like a guy on the way down. The most expensive option is San Diego, er, L.A.’s Hunter Henry, who’s solid, but I’m not sure they have to have the best. Just someone they can count on.
Secondary Needs
These are holes that can be worked around if the first three are filled, but they still need help.
Defensive Front Seven: Dont’a Hightower will be back and that’s good news. He’ll fortify young’ns Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche, who showed flashes toward the end of 2020. Next would be an inside run stopper and an edge rusher, as I’m not totally sold on New Hampshire loving Chase Winovich. A Kyle Van Noy return might be possible, if the price is right, which makes it not likely.
Secondary: It’s their deepest group, but with the rumor mill saying a trade of Gilmore is likely, they’ll need talent on the back end, as JC Jackson takes over as the No. 1 corner. I’m hoping Gilmore doesn’t go, but with him on the final year of his contract, if it’s for a No. 1, do it.
OK, get to it, Bill.
