Your New England Patriots kick off 2022 on Sunday in Miami. It’s traditionally a house of horrors when they do it during the blast furnace conditions of playing in South Florida before October arrives, so history gives a guide to how things may start out — which may be the clearest picture we have for what lies ahead. If I were asked to give one word to describe my outlook for 2022, “optimistic” is not the one I’d choose.
In fact, after seeing what I saw in three pre-season games and hearing daily reports from camp of continuing confusion in the new offense, I can’t honestly even use “hopeful.” So I guess it’s “I-dunno,” if that can count as one word.
Seasons usually come down to one or two X-factors, like how a new QB like Matt Ryan gels with his new team in Indy, or how healthy a team can remain. But with these Patriots it’s the opposite, as from the O-line to the new highly questionable coaching assignments nearly the entire team is an X-factor.
So here’s what I considered while trying to predict how it will unfold.
Who Do I Have Faith In?
Coach B: After losing his longtime offensive coordinator and several other offensive coaches and altering the offensive scheme for some reason, things seem pretty disjointed. But he always seems to figure it out. I think he’ll do it again this time, with one of the things being realizing he’ll have to take over play calling early on.
Mac Jones: He wasn’t very good in two pre-season stints, where most of his attempts were rushed dink and dunks that were mainly the result of protection breaking down — a big worry at the moment. But if they get that fixed he’ll take a step forward. If not, goodbye to making the playoffs.
Matthew Judon: He was great for 14 games, then got Covid and disappeared. My guess is that doesn’t happen again. Big year ahead.
Kyle Dugger: After a solid Year 2, he’s preparing to take over as leader of the defense from Devin McCourty.
Who Don’t I Have Faith In?
Offensive Play Calling: I stated my case a few weeks ago about how Matt Patricia’s ’fraidy-cat, bend-but-don’t-break style as the DC (which immediately got better with the same personnel when Brian Flores took over in 2018) drove me crazy. And it’ll be worse if he’s calling plays for the offense. Let’s just say I’m not a fan.
Who Am I Wondering About?
Offensive Line: Matty P’s official position is the O-line coach. So far it’s been a disaster both running and passing. Better hope he can fix it because this team goes nowhere if it can’t protect Mac and run the ball.
10 Rookies Make the Team: It’s astonishing 10 rookies made the cut down roster. But is it a tip of the cap to the brass for a second straight productive draft, or that they lacked dependable depth overall? If the guys can play, it makes them younger, faster and with the bonus of helping with the salary cap going forward. But 10 rookies makes you wonder if they’ll lack critical experience in times when it usually counts most. So it’s wait and see.
Who/What Am I Hopeful Over?
Return Game: Some people think this doesn’t matter, but I think it does. It was always a factor, from the early days with Troy Brown returning two punts for TD’s in 2001, to how the Edelman/Amendola twosome in the punt return game was a factor when they went to four SB’s in five years between 2014 and 2018. Ditto with the spark and anticipation Cordarrelle Patterson gave on kickoffs in 2018. But since all three left, the return game has been dismal besides a lucky six-game spurt by Gunner Olszewski.
But, even with the fumble-laden era of the over-hyped Cyrus Jones in my memory, I’m curious about rookies Jack Jones, Marcus Jones and Pierre Strong because they have drafted speed and guys with a track record of taking kicks and punts back for scores in college. Given their holes, they need all the field position help they can get from special teams. So I’ll use that word “hopeful” here.
Secondary: Two years ago they had the best secondary in football before Bill screwed it up by not signing JC Jackson early when he was giving out free agent cash to seemingly every stiff in the league and waited too long to trade Stephon Gilmore to get anything of value. As a result, the safeties are solid and deep. But with no elite corner and rookies likely in the mix it’s going to be a scary area until they prove otherwise.
Receiver Room: It’s not that I don’t like the DeVante Parker acquisition, Jakobi Meyer, Kendrick Bourne or Hunter Henry. It’s just that they need/needed to get a ready-on-Day 1 home run hitter to make everyone better. With that not here, they will need major improvement over 2021 from Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith to give Mac the extra help he needs.
Schedule: Not overly hard, but not easy. They face six 2021 playoff teams and Buffalo is the only 2021 first-place finisher they play. Having said that, three of their first four are on the road, including at Green Bay, and they have nine games on the road and just eight at home.
AFC East: The Jets are the Jets and starting out with 112-year-old Joe Flacco at QB. And until proven otherwise, despite their impressive wideout talent, Miami will find a way to screw something up. Buffalo is not only the cream of the division, they’re my prediction to win the Super Bowl as well.
Prediction:It’s a long way from the good old days when you could predict/guarantee 12 wins before the schedule came out
Now, it’s 9-8 and fighting for a wild card berth till the end.
Email Dave Long at [email protected].