After a summer of big changes I waited to give my outlook for the Celtics until I’d seen them play for a while. They were a “wait and see” proposition for me, so I reserved judgment until 20 games had been played. And while they remain riddled with uncertainty, after their first 27 games I do have a better handle on their strengths and weaknesses and a sense of where they are headed by year’s end.
So here’s an assessment of who they are after returning home last Saturday morning at 13-14 after a dismal 1-4 trip to the left coast.
Biggest weaknesses: (1) Consistency. So far it’s been game to game whether they’re going to bring effort to deliver the A game or not. In Portland last Saturday, yes; vs. L.A. in the next one, no. (2) 3-point shooting. It’s not that they’re shooting 33.4 percent (24th in the NBA); it’s recognizing what is a good one and what isn’t. (3) Mental toughness. Their wins usually happen when the talent kicks in, but when it doesn’t there aren’t enough guys who tighten the screws to grind through bad times. (4) A true point guard. Dennis Schroder is the closest thing, so Earth to Ime: Start him until you trade for one.
Jayson Tatum: I’ve been saying for two years now he’s their biggest strength and biggest weakness. That’s because he has No. 1 player talent, but it comes with the head of a No. 2 player. That means he’s more Kevin McHale, who never would have been as good as he became if Larry Bird’s competitive personality hadn’t been driving the bus. Said in wins and losses: Bird turned a 29-win team into 61-win team his rookie year, while they went from 57 to 42 when McHale was the star as Bird missed most of 1988-89. Tatum was a good fit with the Olympic team because it had strong leaders like Kevin Durant and that let him just play. The dilemma: Do you move him to get a best player who’s a stronger leader? Or since the talent is so extreme and getting better (he leads the team with 8.3 rebounds per too) find a stronger personality to pair with him? Or maybe fill the team with that type of guy to make the need not as extreme. Unless there’s the perfect deal out there that I can’t find, I’d do option 3.
Jaylen Brown: He’s been hurt most of the season, and mostly shot/played poorly when he did play. He also has not improved his handle in traffic, which is still weak. The silver lining is that it’s showed how they play without him as they contemplate changes. On the other hand, his 41-point game on opening night at MSG showed just how dynamic he can be.
Al Horford: He remains a versatile defender, but he’s mainly trade bait for a contender at the deadline.
Dennis Schroder: He has brought both the feisty attitude and the penetration they desperately need. Their best games have been when he has started at point guard, partly because it moves Marcus Smart off the ball, where he does much more damage without the responsibility of running the offense.
Marcus Smart: Unless everyone else has fouled out, and I mean everyone, it would be Smart to keep Marcus away from running any offense. To do that, keep him and Schroder starting and bring Brown off the bench, which also gives real offensive juice to the second team.
Rob Williams: Everyone loves the lob dunks he gets to above the box, even me. But I like his rebounding and shot-blocking shots better. However, he’s already missed seven of the first 27 with knee soreness and never played more than 59 games, so his durability is a major question mark.
Romeo Langford: When he comes into a game the clueless expression on his face makes me think he has no idea what city he’s even in. But while he’s far from perfect, the FG percent is over 50 percent and he’s shooting over 40 percent from international waters, so there are signs he may be coming around. So play him more.
Grant Williams:He makes the all-clinic team because he always plays hard, rarely is in the wrong spot, takes charge and has worked hard to improve his 3-point shooting to a team-leading 43 percent. All deserve a pat on the back, so I’ve got nothing against him. The problem is he’s too short for his position, so he’s easy to shoot over and too slow to cover the smaller guys.
Other young guys: No one else has shown me anything, including Aaron Nesmith, an alleged 3-point shooter who can’t shoot 3’s (25.5 percent), and Payton Pritchard, who dribbles more than a 2-year-old at breakfast.
Ime Udoka: He’s had some glaring game/player management mistakes that make you wonder. Not ready to pull the ripcord yet, but I’ve yet to see one thing that makes me think they made the right choice.
Projected finish: They’re, at best, a 42- or 43-win team that likely will be in the play-in round. But the Eastern Conference could have as many as 11 teams finishing .500 or above, so it’ll be close. Regardless, they won’t get by Round 2, unless Tatum has a totally dominant spring.
So what do you do? After blowing their chance in 2017 to move into the Top Four, they need to dig out. But after squandering a 10-deep roster and eight first-round draft picks over the next three years it won’t be easy. First they need to identify how they want to play and which players will remain to build around — a process that would be under way if I were the GM or owned the team. We’ll get to that after the holidays in advance of the February trade deadline.
For now, lower expectations and don’t bang your head on the coffee table too often during the bad games.
