Finally, there is real on-field news to talk about. The Red Sox opened summer camp last week, the Celtics opened theirs earlier this week and, praise the lord, the Tom Brady saga is not the only thing people are talking about when it comes to football.
Well, that’s sorta the case today regarding the latter. But after having a week to think about it I’m back to talk about who’ll be playing QB for the Patriots in 2020, not who’s not. Thus, we’ll leave the Sox, Celtics and Bruins for next time, to fill in some of the blanks on last week’s Cam Newton signing.
The Snap Judgment: I’m always a skeptic and rarely let my imagination run away on big stories of this type. If you do, the first thing that comes to the mind is the MVP season of 2015 and he hasn’t been that guy since, um, 2015. So the first reaction was they’ve improved the backup QB spot and added a big name to challenge Jarrett Stidham for what comes next at quarterback. However, as I’ve thought about it, I’m warming to his potential upside. The caveat being he’s over his recent shoulder and foot woes.
Primarily because a high-level Cam means we’ll be seeing a different type of QB play than we’ve had for over 30 years (with Drew Bledsoe figured in). As great as Brady was, there have been times I’ve thought how nice it would be to have a QB who could get yards on his own with a run/pass option near the goal line and on third and short, or be able to turn a sure sack into chicken salad with his legs.
As the mind wanders, here are some observations on Newton.
Things to Know about Cam Newton: While Brady routinely has thrown for 4,000-plus yards, 11 times overall and only missed doing it in the Deflategate-shortened 12-game 2016 season during the last nine seasons, Newton has only done it once, as a rookie in 2011.
On the flip side, while I’m surprised Brady has run for as much as 100 (barely) three times, in the last eight seasons his combined rushing total is just 321. Newton has topped every season of his career except last year when he played just two games.
Having said that, the flip side of the flip side is that most running QB’s get beat up or worse as a season goes along. But in missing only five games in eight years before last year, Newton’s durability is better than I thought. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been the dreaded “game time decision” quite a few times. I don’t recall Brady ever being one of those and that adds uncertainty in a way Brady never did.
Then there’s the accuracy thing. Newton has completed just 59.6 percent of his career passes and been over 60 percent just three times, though the best, 67.5 percent, was in 2018. In 19 seasons Brady has never not been over 60 percent, though he barely did that (60.8 percent) in 2019.
The accuracy difference also shows itself in interceptions, where Brady has thrown for double digits just three times (11 twice and 12) since Newton entered the league in 2011. Cam has never had a non-double-digit pick season with a high of 17 in 2011 and low of 10 when he was MVP in 2015 when he also had his only 30-plus-TD-pass (35) season. Brady has seven 30-plus seasons.
Looking Ahead to 2020: When I hear “mercurial personality” I think Kyrie Irving or Jose Canseco and that’s not good. But my measuring stick actually is a guy I didn’t like, Deion Sanders, because I really hate “hey, look at me, me, me” types. But the rule of thumb is what do you hear about a player coming out of the locker room or after they leave town. In Deion’s case you never heard detractors, so I figured he must have been a good guy. That appears to be the case with Newton as well.
I’ve been harshly critical of Odell Beckham’s commitment to winning over the years, so persistent rumors of Cam’s workout buddy coming to New England got my attention. I wasn’t for Antonio Brown because he’s nuts. For OBJ it seems more maturity issues similar to pre-Foxboro Randy Moss, who worked out great here. At least for a while. So, in a rare about-face, I’m interested, as he’ll certainly help the weapons deficiency. That leaves three questions. Would Cleveland let him go? What would they want back? What would you give up to get him? Oh, plus he’s pricey and they’re up against the cap, so who are you willing to let go?
Passing yards and picks can be a reflection of throwing down field more than the Pats do, as well as not having the great slot guys and third down backs Brady always had. It’ll be interesting to see if the system, play calling and superior coaching can negate Newton’s negatives.
Bottom Line: What the “should have kept Brady” crowd needs to understand is that while TB-12 is the GOAT, he wasn’t that guy last year. He was middle of the pack, with just two vintage Brady games, Pittsburgh in the opener and the second Buffalo game. History tells us he likely won’t be as good at 43 as at 42. Not a Willie Mays on the warning track 43, but not an improvement over 2018. The stats may go up because of his new weapons, but that’s irrelevant to what would have happened here with Patriots personnel. Thus with the team likely transitioning to a more conservative, run-dominated, defense-oriented game to accommodate its talent, Newton’s game may be a better fit than the 2020 version of Brady. So I’d say the likelihood is better than 50-50 that with a healthy Newton the play at QB improves over 2019.
Though that could just be my imagination running away with me.
