The NBA restart begins this week with some tune-up games in advance of the playoffs. All will be played in the Orlando bubble, which will be weird. Even weirder will be having no fans on hand and thus no home court advantage, usually a big deal in the playoffs. And with as many as four teams in each division having a shot, this is the most wide-open playoff since 1979!
Here’s a look at those with the best chance to win it, with apologies to Utah, who is close to these teams but will have a tough time climbing over the best out west.
Boston Celtics: Despite some frustrating moments, the Celtics have been a breath of fresh air after last year’s dumpster fire. They have three 20-points-per scorers and Gordon Hayward is at 17.1, so they have firepower. But there’s not much scoring off the bench, which will haunt them against Toronto, Milwaukee and the Clippers if they get that far. What they need is Jayson Tatum to continue the ascension toward being a Top 10 player and Hayward to be more steady. When the latter plays well the whole team does, but his outside shooting frustratingly disappears at times and he plays with no confidence other times. In short, he’s got to be tougher and more consistent. Outlook– They could go out early or, if they shoot well, to the finals.
Philadelphia 76ers: They’re under major scrutiny. Whispers have been growing that if Philly doesn’t go deep in the playoffs it may be time to break up the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons duo. Seems weird after all the crowing done over the supposedly brilliant but actually failed “process” that delivered them to town. But for all the good Simmons does, he can’t make a shot past 10 feet, somehow has never made a three-pointer his entire NBA career and is very shaky at the line. In the 3-ball-crazed league that’s not good, especially with Embiid doing serious damage in the area where Simmons needs to operate. For now, their issues are that they’re not a good 3-point shooting team and the home/away splits were 29-2 in Philly and 10-24 on the road. So you have to wonder if playing in the dome is good or bad. Outlook – they’re dangerous but go out early.
Denver Nuggets: They didn’t look particularly inspired when they split a pair of early season games with the Celtics. But they’re deep, versatile and big and have a number of guys who can score. Their best player is center Nikola Jokic, who is surrounded by a lot of good shooters, and he’s their best passer. If the head is on straight they can beat everyone. Outlook – Having said that, I don’t think they can guard Lebron if they meet in Round 2.
Houston Rockets: Many like Houston because of the James Harden-Russell Westbrook duo and scrappers that make up their small ball line-up. Not me. Their 34.8 percent 3-ball shooting is just 24th in the league and basically the same as shooting 50 percent on twos. So I’m betting micro-ball gets blown up when they face teams with big centers like Anthony Davis or Jokic, who’ll adjust to their quickness to play them tougher outside the arch as a series evolves, then kill them on the boards and with inside scoring. Outlook – Don’t get past Round 2.
Miami Heat: They’re scrappy and have a great coach who gets a lot out of his team while Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are better than many probably realize. But, while I know he’s talented, I’m not a big fan of Jimmy Butler, whose idea of leadership is to belittle people. I’m also not sold on the bench as Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and (sorry, N.H.) Duncan Robinson are going to have to prove to me they can do in the playoffs what they did during the regular season. I don’t see that happening. Outlook – A tough out done after Round 1.
L.A. Lakers: The LeBron-A.D. duo is as formidable as any in the NBA, but what else do they have? Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley are both out, so they have no point guard. And sorry, David Price, yuck to ball hog replacements J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters. Outlook – Hard to ever bet against LeBron but I don’t see them getting by the Clippers, or maybe even Denver.
Toronto Raptors: Don’t know if anyone saw them being on pace to win 59 as they were before the virus hit. What they have is a very good coach and a great GM who sees how the pieces fit, and their best player, Pascal Siakam, is a lot better than people think. Outlook – Tough out for anyone.
Milwaukee Bucks: They were on a historic pace before the shutdown, have the NBA’s best player in the Greek Freak and seem to be on a mission. On the down side Eric Bledsoe does a lot more bad things than he does good in big moments, and while they’ve been productive I don’t like their bigs. The bench, though, is underrated and so is Khris Middleton, who can go on a six-game shooting tear than can kill a team. Outlook –They go to the Finals.
L.A. Clippers: My pick to win it all because they have great defenders on the wing in Leonard and Paul George,who can also go for 30 any night and the ever annoying Patrick Beverley at the point. That latter will be a nightmare for the point guard-less Lakers. And with those two great wings they can stagger their playing time to avoid the normal fatigue that comes with trying to guard LeBron and the Freak by themselves for an entire game. Finally with Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson and Joakim Noah added to Montrezl Harrell and the game’s top sixth man Lou Williams they are deep and feisty off the bench.
All this doesn’t take into account Covid-19 blips — they can’t be predicted.